NUCLEAR BOMB SQUAD

Defusing Armageddon: Inside NEST, America's Secret Nuclear Bomb Squad, by Jeffrey T. Richelson. W.W. Norton & Company, 2009. 318 pages, $27.95.     

THE NUCLEAR WEAPON STATES

The nuclear weapon states (NWS) have different perspectives on the desirability and feasibility of a world without nuclear weapons. A review of each of the current nuclear doctrines, postures, and disarmament policies of the five NWS shows that there is a clear divide between them, with some showing relatively determined leadership (the United States and the United Kingdom) and others expressing skepticism, if not complete disinterest (France, Russia, and China). Nevertheless, the prospects for progress on disarmament by the NWS at the 2010 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons remain reasonably good. Yet complete success will require much time as well as sustained and applied efforts from the NWS, first and foremost to improve their performance as international security guarantors.     

NEVER-ENDING STORY

Consequential Damages of Nuclear War: The Rongelap Report, by Barbara Rose Johnston and Holly M. Barker. Left Coast Press, 2008. 296 pages, $29.95.     

潜艇在水面目标位置散布概率密度的计算方法

潜艇声纳在较远距离上发现水面目标时,探测和解算的目标运动要素具有较大的误差.利用泰勒公式,将目标位置计算公式进行简化处理,结合概率论的相关理论,求解目标位置散布概率密度.针对典型战术态势,计算不同时刻目标位置散布概率密度,绘制概率密度图,与目标位置散布仿真图进行对比.     

水下地形辅助导航技术的研究与应用进展

在简要介绍水下地形辅助导航基本概念的基础上,从地形辅助导航算法、水下数字地图技术、水下地形辅助导航试验等方面,详细介绍了水下地形辅助导航所涉及各方面的主要问题及研究进展,并对下一步研究方向及应用做出指引与展望。     

泵喷推进型潜艇电场防护效果与阴极保护性能分析

为探究泵喷推进型潜艇在电场防护和外加电流阴极保护这两种典型工作形态下的防护效果,采用边界元法建立了此型潜艇的腐蚀相关静电场模型,仿真分析了导流罩和导叶对电场防护与阴极保护效能的影响。结果表明:相较于传统推进方式,泵喷推进型潜艇在海水中电场峰峰值降低了约38%,且其仅需约50%的电流值便能达到更优的电场防护效果。此外,不论阴极保护过程中整艇涂层是否完好,泵喷推进装置处的电场峰值均有一定程度的降低,这表明泵喷推进装置具有更好的电场隐身性能;然而在对泵喷推进型潜艇外加电流阴极保护的过程中,只能在船身和大轴处达到较好的保护效果,其导流罩内部的叶轮和导叶难以达到保护电位,处于欠保护状态,局部腐蚀防护仍需加强。     

潜艇自航模系统可靠性优化设计

针对潜艇自航模系统可靠性设计问题,提出了有针对性的可靠性优化设计方法;在构建矩阵式任务剖面的基础上,应用多阶段任务系统可靠性建模理论建立系统可靠性模型并开展预计;根据FMEA分析结果提出技术改进措施,以体积、重量、成本为约束构建可靠性冗余优化模型并利用微粒群算法求解.案例证明了该优化设计的有效性及可行性.     

“Disarmament Market” Effects of Information Disclosures

In yet another wave of discussion on nuclear disarmament among political scientists and practitioners, one of the topical issues concerns the problem of transparency, its mechanisms, costs, and benefits. Numerous—though often abstract—calls for greater transparency of nuclear arsenals and postures when promoting the idea of nuclear disarmament, however, do not give a clear rationale for states possessing nuclear weapons to pursue greater transparency. Meanwhile, many other research fields—such as economics and psychology—attempt to address problems related to the lack of exact information on the counterpart's activities and intentions. Economics offers one probable analog for the transparency problem: the issue of information asymmetry and its consequences. This article is an attempt to apply the classical model of a market with information asymmetry to the analysis of the transparency problem within the nuclear disarmament process. Such an approach could help pave the way for closer cooperation between economic and political scientists in the nuclear disarmament field.