MAKING HISTORICAL SURVEYS OF STATES’ NUCLEAR AMBITIONS

In signalling its wish to participate in the Additional Protocol at an early stage, Sweden took several steps at the national level long before it actually ratified the protocol in May 2004. In 1998, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) initiated a project to conduct a historical survey of Swedish nuclear weapons research for the period 1945–72. Sweden thus took an important step for the sake of transparency. SKI worked out a general model of how a nationally based survey could be designed, and gradually other states approached SKI in order to learn more about the methods and goals of the historical surveys. In 2002, a cooperative project was initiated between Sweden and Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Finland joined the cooperative effort, and it thus became a dialogue and project carried out by five neighboring states to make national surveys. This article presents summaries of the national reports from Sweden and the Baltic states.     

NUCLEAR ATTRIBUTION AS DETERRENCE

Recently, post-explosion nuclear forensics, or nuclear attribution, has gained a new spotlight within the nuclear weapons scientific and policymaking community. Academics are beginning to ask whether post-explosion forensics might create a replacement for an international nonproliferation regime, or at least offer a fallback option to deter states and individuals from selling nuclear materials. This paper examines current attribution technology from unclassified literature and finds the technology to be well developed but not foolproof, such that nuclear attribution currently provides little deterrent value. If current capabilities were publicized more thoroughly and if the post-explosion process of assessing the evidence were internationalized, states and intermediate actors might be deterred more effectively. Developing a nuclear fingerprint database is also discussed. While useful, its impact on deterrence would be minimal.     

NUCLEAR TERRORISM AND THE GLOBAL POLITICS OF CIVILIAN HEU ELIMINATION

An increasing number of countries recognize the special risks of nuclear terrorism associated with the civilian use and storage of and commerce in highly enriched uranium (HEU). They are especially concerned that non-state actors might gain access to HEU and use it to build and detonate improvised nuclear devices. The risk is aggravated by the very large global stocks of HEU, some of which are inadequately protected. Although HEU has few commercial uses, and most experts believe it is technically feasible to substitute low-enriched uranium for HEU in nearly all civilian applications, efforts to reduce HEU stocks have been impeded by a variety of economic, political, and strategic considerations. This article analyzes the nature of these impediments and discusses what is required to overcome them.     

THE NPT

This article assesses the successes and failures of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) since its creation in 1968 by developing and applying a set of “metrics” to each of the NPT's substantive articles as well as to its withdrawal provisions. In light of this analysis, the article also puts forward some specific proposals for strengthening the NPT and its implementation, with a view to the debate and decisions at the upcoming 2010 NPT Review Conference. A concluding section turns explicitly to the 2010 NPT Review Conference and proposes pursuit of agreement on three NPT Action Plans: one for nonproliferation, one for peaceful uses, and one for nuclear disarmament. Combining vision and practicable steps, these Action Plans would set out a roadmap for action between the 2010 and the 2015 NPT Review Conferences. They could provide a foundation for substantive exchanges—in this case, on progress toward their implementation—during the preparations for the 2015 conference.     

THE NUCLEAR THRESHOLD STATES

“Nuclear threshold states”—those that have chosen nuclear restraint despite having significant nuclear capabilities—seem like the perfect partners for the reinvigorated drive toward global nuclear disarmament. Having chosen nuclear restraint, threshold states may embrace disarmament as a way to guarantee the viability of their choice (which may be impossible in a proliferating world). Supporting disarmament efforts affirms their restraint, both self-congratulating and self-fulfilling. Additionally, the commitment to their non-nuclear status springs at least in part from a moral stance against nuclear weapons that lends itself to energetic support of global disarmament. However, threshold states also offer significant challenges to the movement for nuclear weapons elimination, in particular in relation to acquisition of enrichment and reprocessing facilities. This article analyzes both the challenges and opportunities posed by threshold states by examining the cases of Brazil and Japan.     

Home Defence and the Sandys Defence White Paper, 1957

Long understood as the key document in Britain's Cold War history, the Duncan Sandys Defence White Paper of 1957 nevertheless has a largely forgotten context: home defence. This article argues that understanding this context allows important new conclusions to be drawn concerning the drafting, presentation and the reception of the document and the deterrent strategy it expounded. It argues that the Paper failed to establish a new doctrine for civil defence which reconciled the policy with the wider deterrent strategy. In doing this, the Paper presented a muddled policy to the public: one which failed to justify the reductions in civil defence provision but which stressed the destructive power of thermonuclear weapons. This had the effect of encouraging the critics of the government's nuclear strategy to flag up the absence of adequate civil defence measures and highlight the ‘admission’ that there was no defence against the hydrogen bomb.     

潜艇承载力分析和动力抗沉操纵方法研究

在分析潜艇受力的基础上,根据潜艇的操纵规则,给出承载力的计算方法,分析了影响潜艇承载力的因素,设计了一套用于指导潜艇动力抗沉操纵的承载力图谱.以某一假想潜艇为例,说明了承载力图谱的绘制和使用方法.     

潜艇定深运动的自适应模糊控制研究

针对潜艇定深运动过程中存在非线性、时变参数、复杂干扰的特点,提出了一种基于神经网络的自适应模糊控制器,并采用学习速率自调整的EBP算法对模糊控制器进行了在线调整.仿真结果表明,该控制器能辨别出潜艇的平衡舵角,与常规的PID控制相比,具有抗干扰能力强、响应速度快、精度高等优点.     

远程预警声呐发现目标后的机动原则

鉴于经典的载体优化理论对装备舷侧阵声呐的潜艇的局限性,讨论了装备舷侧阵远程预警声呐的潜艇发现目标后的机动问题.在分析经典的载体优化机动理论的使用条件和特点的前提下,借鉴美国潜艇拖曳阵远程预警声呐发现目标后的战术机动思想,提出了装备舷侧阵声呐的潜艇发现目标后可以采取与初始发现方位线相垂直的倒\"U\"字机动策略及具体的细节.该机动方法理论上成立,但具体参数的确定还需要经过计算机仿真和海上实践的检验.同时认为战术理论的发展与装备技术水平的发展紧密相关.     

贝叶斯网络在潜艇远航隐蔽性评估中的应用

针对潜艇远航中面临探潜兵力种类多、各兵力间相互联系的特点,将基于贝叶斯网络的故障诊断方法引入到潜艇隐蔽性的评估中。假设通过分析某次远航实例后得到节点分布参数,结合建立的潜艇远航暴露贝叶斯网络图,得出相关结论。初步探讨了该方法对潜艇隐蔽性的评估、诊断暴露原因、确定关键探潜兵力等方面的应用价值。