Beyond Pessimism: Why the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Will Not Collapse

This article questions the predominantly pessimistic assessments over the future of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). After analysing available evidence on states’ interests and interactions within the NPT’s framework, it argues that several negative expectations are unwarranted. Conversely, the article identifies three potentially threatening scenarios. Therefore, it scrutinizes the likely impact of reactive nuclear proliferation; analyses the probability of significant actors challenging the existent nuclear architecture; and explores whether the treaty’s enforcement might soon be diluted. The article concludes the NPT is unlikely to face fundamental threats in the foreseeable future.     

Stalking the Secure Second Strike: Intelligence,Counterforce, and Nuclear Strategy

Secure second strike nuclear forces are frequently held to be easy to procure. Analysts have long argued that targeting intelligence against relocatable targets like submarine launched and land mobile ballistic missiles is difficult to obtain. However, the scholarly consensus on intelligence for counterforce operations is seriously overdrawn. Both during and after the Cold War, the United States developed substantial intelligence capabilities to track and target submarines and mobile missiles. These efforts achieved important and under-appreciated success. Second strike forces have been far more vulnerable than most analysts are willing to credit.     

平流层飞艇高能激光武器防御弹道导弹

防御弹道导弹逐渐受到世界各国的重视,扩大拦截窗口是重要的发展趋势之一。平流层飞艇有可能通过艇载激光武器或者中继反射地基激光两种方式拦截自由段弹道导弹,为评估这两种方式的拦截效果和可行性,本文分析了平流层飞艇搭载高能激光武器的可能性以及中继反射作战方式的特点,建立了激光烧蚀模型,采用数值计算方法对激光的烧蚀效果进行了研究,结果表明平流层飞艇部署位置应距离导弹发射点800～1000km,平流层中继激光飞艇能够在短时间内引爆弹头,艇载激光武器采用烧蚀弹头防热层的方法同样可以达到拦截弹道导弹的目的。     

激光武器对红外导引头的软破坏研究

针对舰载激光武器破坏反舰导弹的问题,研究了激光对红外制导反舰导弹导引头的软破坏。以激光辐照红外探测器为例,建立了舰载激光武器对红外制导反舰导弹探测器的破坏模型,计算了1.06μm激光海上大气传输的大气透过率,进行了0.632μm激光辐照CCD成像系统的实验,估算了对远距离红外制导反舰导弹探测器实现有效破坏所需发射的激光能量,得出了一些有价值的数据和结论。     

基于灰色神经网络武器装备研制费用预测模型

提出了基于灰色系统理论与神经网络的武器装备研制费用组合预测模型,该模型首先采用灰色GM(0,N)模型对研制费用进行预测,利用LMBP神经网络对预测误差进行了模拟与修正,实例验证该方法具有较高的预测精度.     

基于信息熵的多属性群决策通指装备效能评估算法

基于通指装备效能评价指标的多样性和描述语言的模糊性,首先将对通指装备评价属性的定量、定性描述指标统一转化为三角模糊数,实现定量指标与定性指标的规范化处理,在此基础上提出一种基于信息熵排序的模糊多属性群决策算法,实现对通指装备的综合评价．最后,通过通指装备效能评估实例分析并证明了算法的可行性和有效性．     

Egypt: new government,old challenges

The new government in Egypt will have to deal with the following challenges in its foreign policy: the Palestinians, Sinai, the arms race between Israel and Egypt, the nuclear issue, the Suez Canal, and the Tiran Straits. Egypt has to decide what its approach would be toward these issues and as to how to maneuver between its own interests and those of other states such as Israel and the USA. All the sides have to consider their steps carefully in order to avoid an unnecessary crisis.     

压制兵器火控系统发展趋势

在目前国内压制兵器数字化火控系统发展现状的基础上,根据世界先进武器装备系统的发展趋势,总结分析压制兵器的发展趋势,并归纳提炼出新一代或控股系统的技术特征。为研制出具有信息化、网络化、智能化、一体化火控系统的炮兵武器装备进行理论探索。     

水下武器仿真系统的可组合性

针对水下武器对抗仿真系统(Underwater Weapon Confrontation Simulation System,UWCSS)的特点,分析了UWCSS的层次,提出了针对水下武器对抗仿真系统可组合的形式化方法。系统研究了仿真实体及其属性、实体关系、实体的内行为、实体之间的交互以及仿真过程的形式化描述问题,为水下武器对抗仿真系统的组合性开发提供了理论支撑。     

摧毁固定目标的空袭兵器需求量算法研究

在反空袭作战中,预先对敌空袭兵器的出动量的有效判断程度,关系到我防空兵器的兵力需求论证与战斗部署。以往这方面的研究成果中,定性多于定量,为提高准确性,加强定量研究有很大的必要。由于影响作战的因素很多,且需求量的计算分为多个方面,不可能一一作出研究。分析了敌空袭固定目标时兵力选择所依据的因素,分别用排队论与Lanchester方程理论进行了数学建模。