基于研制试验数据的可靠性综合评估方法

针对产品在研制阶段的试验项目多、时间短、样本少等特点,在可靠性增长Duane模型的基础上,提出一种基于研制阶段变母体变环境试验数据的可靠性综合评估方法与模型。考虑不同试验应力环境对产品的影响,引入环境折合系数,根据相似产品试验数据,采用综合考虑了增长趋势检验约束和增长模型检验约束的寻优方法求解环境折合系数,利用折合后的数据进行可靠综合评估。通过实例证明了该方法的工程实用性。     

Estimation of the kinetic parameters for thermal decomposition of HNIW and its adiabatic time-to-explosion by Kooij formula

A differential/integral method to estimate the kinetic parameters (apparent activation energy E_a and pre-exponential factor A) for thermal decomposition reaction of energetic materials based on Kooij formula are applied to study the nonisothermal decomposition reaction kinetics of hexanitrohexaazaisowurtzitane (HNIW) by analyzing nonisothermal DSC curve data. The apparent activation energy (E_a) obtained by the integral isoconversional non-isothermal method based on Kooij formula is used to check the constancy and validity of apparent activation energy by the differential/integral method based on Kooij formula. The most probable mechanism function of thermal decomposition reaction of HNIW is determined by a logical choice method. The equations for calculating the critical temperatures of thermal explosion (T_b) and adiabatic time-to-explosion (t_TIad) based on Kooij formula are used to calculate the values of T_b and t_TIad to evaluate the thermal safety and heat-resistant ability of HNIW. All the original data needed for analyzing the kinetic parameters are from nonisothermal DSC curves. The results show that the kinetic model function in differential form and the values of E_a and A of decomposition reaction of HNIW are 3(1 − α)[−ln(1 − α)]^2/3, 152.73 kJ mol⁻¹ and 10^11.97 s⁻¹, respectively, and the values of self-accelerating decomposition temperature (T_SADT), T_b and t_TIad are 486.55 K, 493.11 K and 52.01 s, respectively.