A cost–benefit analysis of terrorist attacks

A cost–benefit analysis of terrorist attacks is developed and placed within a systematic theoretical structure. For the target or object of the attack, we consider the lost value of human lives, lost economic value, and lost influence value, counted as benefits for the terrorist. The corresponding losses for the terrorist are counted as costs. The terrorist attacks if benefits outweigh costs. Bounded rationality is enabled where the three kinds of benefits and costs can be weighted differently. We account for two ex ante probabilities of successful planning and attack, and enable the terrorist to assign different weights to its multiple stakeholders. We introduce multiple time periods, time discounting, attitudes towards risk, and subcategories for the benefits and costs. The cost–benefit analysis is illustrated with the 11 September 2001 attack, and 53 incidents in the Global Terrorism Database yielding both positive and negative expected utilities. The paper is intended as a tool for scientists and policy-makers, as a way of thinking about costs and benefits of terrorist attacks.     

How to Fight Terrorism: Alternatives to Deterrence

Deterrence has been a crucial element in fighting terrorism, both in actual politics and rational choice analyses of terrorism. But there are superior strategies to deterrence. One is to make terrorist attacks less attractive. Another to raise the opportunity cost - rather than the material cost - to terrorists. These alternative strategies effectively dissuade potential terrorists. The strategies suggested here build on the "benevolence" system and tend to produce a positive sum game among the interacting parties. In contrast, the deterrence system is based on "threats" and tends to produce a negative sum game interaction.     

应用小扰动分析方法进行舰船排水量/费用影响研究

采用一种“小扰动分析方法”研究了由于设计参数的改变而引起排水量及相关费用变化的过程,即“舰船排水量／费用影响研究”．在分析方法原理的基础上,以动力装置为例具体演示了分析过程,并结合实例说明了该方法在现代舰船设计权衡中的应用．     

Exploring the economic motivation of maritime piracy

This paper presents two hypotheses regarding the relationship between marine fisheries and maritime piracy. These hypotheses are based on the opportunity and willingness framework and describe how fish values and production can drive fishermen to engage in illegal activities, and the mechanisms that their capabilities and choices make available to them stipulate the forms that piracy takes when facing a declining fishing economy. The hypotheses are tested with the Maritime Piracy Data (MPD) using the negative binomial regression and the bivariate Poisson model. This study uses the instrumental variable approach to deal with endogeneity through two instruments: chlorophyll concentrations and temperature. The statistical analysis shows that unsophisticated piracy attacks are sensitive to fish production, but sophisticated attacks can be affected by both fish production and fish values and depend on the opportunity cost of existing fisheries and finding work in other industries.     

On Growing Operating Costs in the Armed Forces

Operating costs per unit of input or output are often claimed to grow faster in defence than elsewhere in the economy. In this paper, we outline several possible reasons as to why operating costs increase at higher rates in defence, including differences in the input factor mix and productivity growth, the technological complexity required to maintain the relative effect of weapon systems and a gradual reduction in the number of units and activity. We investigate whether operating costs grow at a faster rate than elsewhere in the economy, by estimating growth in real output unit costs in the Norwegian Armed Forces for the period 1994–2013, using activity as a measure of output. We find no increase beyond general inflation in structural (fixed) costs, whereas activity-based (variable) costs per unit of activity increase significantly.     

论四值动态代价分析方法

本文在文献[10]的基础上,着重论述了四值动态代价分析方法引进故障电路代价FC和故障可测度T的新概念的必要性。并从预报数字电路中的不可测故障、提高故障敏化效率和选取引线置值模式的效率三方面,对四值分析与文献[1]的二值分析进行了详细比较,结论是:四值分析定义的可测度比二值更接近数字电路实际,加速测试生成的效果更好。实践表明,四值分析用于自动测试生成系统ATGS,所节省的计算机CPU时间为二值分析的3倍。     

舰船动力装置经济性的概念、模型及其应用

讨论舰船动力装置经济性的概念、度量指标及计算模型．然后,就其在动力装置的设计参数优选、机型选择和技术状态评定等方面的应用作了讨论．     

软件排错费用研究

软件可靠性费用包括避错费用、排错费用和容错费用．在研究了软件排错费用的概念及构成,并重点对软件测试费用进行了分析后,提出了软件测试时间及费用模型,并对软件测试费用投入进行了优化．