Optimal versus required defence expenditure: The case of the Greek-Turkish arms race

The aim of this paper is to indicate the extent to which the arms race against Turkey, in which Greece and Cyprus have been entangled, imposes a defence expenditure burden that is tough for the two allies to bear. To do so we have resorted to evaluating the optimal military expenditure for the two countries, allied in the context of the Integrated Defence Doctrine, which is compatible with the constraints imposed by the resources of their economies. All experiments and scenarios examined lead to the conclusion that the current defence burden of the two allies seems to be driving their economies beyond capacity limits. The fact remains, however, that under the circumstances, a one-sided disarmament policy like the one currently followed by Greece, is a risky choice given that the long-term armament programmes pursued by Turkey, whose role in this arms race has been proven as leading, leave very small room to the Greek and Cypriot sides to reduce their own defence expenditure.     

Deferred verification: the role of new verification technologies and approaches

ABSTRACT

Researchers have recently proposed a new approach to nuclear-arms-control verification, dubbed “deferred verification.” The concept forgoes inspections at sensitive nuclear sites and of nuclear weapons or components in classified form. To implement this concept, a state first divides its nuclear program into a closed segment and an open segment. The total fissile-material inventory in the closed segment, which includes the weapon complex, is known and declared with very high accuracy. Essentially no inspections take place in the closed segment. In contrast, inspectors have access to the open segment, which includes in particular the civilian nuclear sector. The fissile-material inventory in the open segment is known with less accuracy, but uncertainties can be reduced over time using nuclear-archaeology methods. Deferred verification relies primarily on established safeguards techniques and avoids many unresolved verification challenges, such as the need for information barriers for warhead confirmation measurements. At the same time, deferred verification faces some unique challenges. Here, we explore some of these challenges and offer possible solutions; to do so, we examine possible noncompliance strategies in which a state would seek to withhold a higher-than-declared inventory.     

CALLING FOR ACTION

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards are under more stress today than at any time in their history. Compliance concerns, a shortage of resources and technology, and growing responsibilities threaten to undermine the effectiveness and credibility of this vital and fundamental pillar of the nonproliferation regime. To address this challenge, the United States recently launched the Next Generation Safeguards Initiative. The goal of this initiative is to ensure the IAEA makes the fullest possible use of its existing authority to prevent the diversion of safeguarded material and to investigate suspicious activities. The initiative will advance state-of-the-art technology, foster the development of a new generation of safeguards experts, and promote technology collaborations and safeguards-conscious infrastructure in states using or pursuing nuclear power. Although it has a domestic focus, the initiative's intent is to catalyze a much broader commitment to international safeguards in partnership with other governments and the IAEA.     

脉状矿的矿产储量最优计算

本文利用改进的三维克里金法对脉状矿进行储量计算,给出一个有效的储量与品位分布计算程序。文中提出网格法理论处理矿体边界和断层问题,采用圆锥法计算脉状矿的半变异函数等办法,为提高估算精度和加快计算速度起到了很好的作用。     

The Success of the 2014 Nuclear Security Summit and its Contribution to the Nonproliferation Regime

The 2014 Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) in The Hague was a resounding success, both in organizational terms and in terms of substance. The new substance can be found in the Communiqué, as well as in innovative joint statements by participants, all of which may be considered as implementation of actions decided upon in the Final Document of the 2010 Review Conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The next two years in the NSS process cannot be business as usual. This viewpoint makes some suggestions for NSS states to undertake between now and the final summit in 2016, including preparations for winding down the NSS process as we know it.     

海洋能驱动航行器的能源最优航迹规划研究

无人水面航行器在航行过程中受到尺寸限制,只能携带有限的能源,而海洋中蕴含大量的能源,如果无人水面航行器在航行过程中能利用广泛分布的海洋能源,那么其续航能力将会显著提升.研究一种海洋能驱动航行器的能源最优航迹规划方法,使海洋能驱动航行器在航行过程中尽可能少地消耗能源,并尽可能多地利用海洋能.首先,选取我国南海部分海域作为...     

单板纳星电源系统能量平衡仿真

能量平衡是微纳卫星电源系统设计和考核的重要要求,在地面通常通过数值仿真进行评价。介绍单板纳星电源系统结构和特点;分别对太阳电池阵、蓄电池组和卫星负载进行数学建模;结合卫星姿态动力学进行能量平衡仿真,仿真结果可以实时反映卫星的功率变化、电池容量和能量平衡情况。电源系统在轨试验数据与仿真结果基本一致,证明所建模型是正确的,仿真方法有效。     

Cooperative interception with fast multiple model adaptive estimation

For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target, the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target, which performs a bang For the case that two pursuers intercept an evasive target, the cooperative strategies and state estimation methods taken by pursuers can seriously affect the guidance accuracy for the target, which performs a bang-bang evasive maneuver with a random switching time. Combined Fast multiple model adaptive estimation (Fast MMAE) algorithm, the cooperative guidance law takes detection configuration affecting the accuracy of interception into consideration. Introduced the detection error model related to the line-of-sight (LOS) separation angle of two interceptors, an optimal cooperative guidance law solving the optimization problem is designed to modulate the LOS separation angle to reduce the estimation error and improve the interception performance. Due to the uncertainty of the target bang-bang maneuver switching time and the effective fitting of its multi-modal motion, Fast MMAE is introduced to identify its maneuver switching time and estimate the acceleration of the target to track and intercept the target accurately. The designed cooperative optimal guidance law with Fast MMAE has better estimation ability and interception performance than the traditional guidance law and estimation method via Monte Carlo simulation.     

爆炸载荷作用下的船用吸能防护结构

重要舰船或舰船的重要部位采用吸能防护结构的必要性已逐渐被人们所认识和接受。防护结构性能好坏的主要指标是培构总能量吸收量和比耗能,本文分析了3种船用吸能防护结构在爆炸最荷作用下的破坏形式,给出了相应的能量吸收估算公式及计算蛄果,比较了等重量下不同防护结构的吸能量和比耗能,从而为船用吸能防护结构用于抗爆炸设计提供了依据和方法。     

舰船利用柴油机冷却水余热作吸收式制冷空调装置热源的研究

对某型舰利用６—１５０Ｃ柴油发电机冷却水余热作为低品位热源进行溴化锂吸收式制冷进行了热力计算和节能分析。计算及分析结果表明：利用６—１５０Ｃ柴油发电机组冷却水余热作为某型舰吸收式空调机组的热源是可行的,它不仅满足该型舰制冷量的要求,还具有明显的节能效果。