随机性理论在情报监视侦察建模中的应用

情报、监视、侦察(ISR)建模是战役级作战仿真建模的重点和难点,在仿真中不仅要求ISR模型能够准确地反映战场空间实体之间的感知交互,同时还要有较高的运行速度。为了解决此问题,以随机性理论为基础进行情报监视侦察的建模仿真,以区域侦察飞行器图像情报的建模全流程为例,阐述其主要环节的建模方法,并通过仿真实验验证了该套建模方法的适用性和有效性。与传统的确定性ISR建模方法相比,该方法在保证仿真精度的同时提高了运行效率,为战役级作战仿真中C4ISR建模与仿真提供了参考方法。     

基础知识在《理论力学》课程中的地位和学习方法

很多学生没有学习好<理论力学>的主要原因是对基础知识重视不够、学习方法不科学.为此,在强调基础知识重要性的同时,结合典型的例子,着重对于基本概念、基本理论、基本技能等3个方面的学习方法,进行了分析和讨论.     

腐蚀损伤下船体总纵极限强度可靠性分析方法探讨

针对腐蚀损伤下船体结构安全性评估问题,基于实船腐蚀勘验数据,引入非概率可靠性评估理论,提出舰艇现时状态下船体结构总纵极限强度非概率可靠性分析方法,建立船体结构非概率可靠性分析模型。对某舰艇船体结构现时状态下的总纵极限强度可靠性及非概率可靠性分析方法在船体结构安全状态评估方面的应用性进行了分析。结果表明:非概率可靠性分析方法克服了过度依赖样本数据的缺陷,较确定性方法更贴近客观实际,在舰艇船体结构技术状态评估方面具有较好的应用前景。     

Drone usage by militant groups: exploring variation in adoption

Judging by recent media reporting and pronouncements by senior US military and security officials, the use of drones by militant groups is both reshaping conflict between armed non-state actors and state parties and now presents a grave and direct threat to nations in the West and elsewhere. But does this threat warrant the attention it is currently receiving? To answer this question, this article surveys how various militant groups have used drones both tactically on the battlefield and for wider strategic purposes. Closely examining how drones have been employed and by whom provides a basis for understanding variation in adoption. The article shows how drone usage or non-usage is highly contingent on the setting of the conflict, the aims of different groups, and the capacity of groups to adopt the technology. Though advances in drone technology could make the use-case more appealing for militant groups, drones will be subject to the same back-and-forth, techno-tactical adaptation dynamic between adversaries that have accompanied prior military innovations.     

Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making: Underexposed issues,advancements, and ways forward

How much mileage can we get out of prospect theory to explain foreign policy decision-making? To answer this question, we first argue that risk as outcome uncertainty is the appropriate definition in prospect-theoretical applications. Then, we indicate that probability weighting—a crucial component of prospect theory—is typically ignored in such applications. We argue why this is problematic and suggest how to move forward. Next, we discuss how to establish the reference point in the face of outcomes in multiple dimensions, as is typically the case in foreign policy decision-making. Finally, we discuss what we have learnt regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions and the differences across individuals in the theory’s applicability. Overall, our contribution lies in identifying several underexposed or neglected issues (e.g., the definition of risk and probability weighting), in examining the advancements regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions, and in discussing avenues for further research.     

消防监督工作效益论

从目前消防监督工作的投入和收益谈起,引入效益和边际效益理论,对进一步提升消防监督工作效益进行探讨分析。     

马克思主义中国化模式论的研究现状及述评

马克思主义中国化模式论的理论研究是学术研究的薄弱环节;它蕴含于马克思主义中国化基本经验、基本规律以及若干问题的研究之中;要深化马壳思主义中国化模式论的理论研究,拓展马克思主义中国化研究的理论视域,深入分析马克思主义中国化模式论的研究困境并积极找寻摆脱研究困境的可能性出路,无疑是十分必要的。     

马克思主义原理课教学探讨——课堂讨论在教学中的作用、实施及检验

马克思主义理论课是高校进行马克思主义理论教育,培养大学生树立科学世界观、人生观的重要内容。如何提高教学效果和教学质量是每个教师的不懈追求。在教学实践中,把教师讲述和学生讨论结合起来,突出课堂讨论在教学过程中的作用,对提高学生学习主动性、积极性及理论素养,改善教学效果具有重要意义。     

基于物元贝叶斯网的舰船损伤定位

在分析了物元理论和贝叶斯网理论的基础上,提出了结合主观概率信息和客观状态信息的物元贝叶斯网模型,并给出了物元贝叶斯网在损伤定位中的推理算法.舰船损伤定位的案例分析表明,该方法可以更加全面地融合战损装备的状态信息,使损伤定位结果更为准确.     

战区后勤保障指挥体系有序性判别模型

阐述了构建战区后勤保障指挥体系判别模型的步骤,为战区后勤指挥员提供了一种从信息流的角度分析整体与各部分运行相关性的决策方法。运用耗散结构理论和灰色系统理论,以战区后勤保障指挥体系各个子系统功能发挥作为序参量,通过灰关联度与熵,建立战区后勤保障指挥体系有序性判别模型。对体系各子系统的有序性进行判别,有助于提高体系效能,对战区后勤保障指挥体系平稳运行具有重要的现实意义。