基于物元贝叶斯网的舰船损伤定位

在分析了物元理论和贝叶斯网理论的基础上,提出了结合主观概率信息和客观状态信息的物元贝叶斯网模型,并给出了物元贝叶斯网在损伤定位中的推理算法.舰船损伤定位的案例分析表明,该方法可以更加全面地融合战损装备的状态信息,使损伤定位结果更为准确.     

装备采办中一级密封招标的博弈均衡分析

针对装备采办中的一级密封招标问题,分析了招标过程中的博弈特点,给出了一维贝叶斯均衡的求解方法和解析表达式,论证了在军工企业的最优战略是选择博弈的贝叶斯均衡,军方的选择是增加竞标者的人数。然后,重点分析了招标过程中的多维博弈问题,给出了多维贝叶斯均衡的一般求解方法,并针对特定的事例进行了多维均衡分析。最后,在多维博弈的框架下对一维博弈和多维博弈的均衡结果进行比较分析,结果表明：在一级密封招标过程中,多维博弈均衡是军工企业的最优战略。     

基于高斯和粒子滤波的AUV水下地形辅助导航方法

针对自主式水下无人航行器(AUV)长时间潜航时的精确导航定位需求,以多波束测深系统为水下地形测量设备,提出一种基于贝叶斯估计的AUV水下地形匹配导航模型。针对贝叶斯滤波后验概率密度函数的求解问题,用高斯混合密度函数近似状态的后验概率密度函数,提出了基于高斯和粒子滤波的水下地形匹配导航方法。基于多波束测深数据的回放式仿真试验表明,提出的方法可以有效近似地形匹配的贝叶斯滤波模型,具有良好的实用性。     

Stability in a general oligopoly model

We analyze a general but parsimonious price competition model for an oligopoly in which each firm offers any number of products. The demand volumes are general piecewise affine functions of the full price vector, generated as the “regular” extension of a base set of affine functions. The model specifies a product assortment, along with their prices and demand volumes, in contrast to most commonly used demand models. We identify a fully best response operator which is monotonically increasing so that the market converges to a Nash equilibrium, when firms dynamically adjust their prices, as best responses to their competitors' prices, at least when starting in one of two price regions. Moreover, geometrically fast convergence to a common equilibrium can be guaranteed for an arbitrary starting point, under an additional condition for the price sensitivity matrix.     

考虑仿真可信度的舰炮虚拟校射

为利用仿真模型在有限校射样本的条件下对校射补偿量进行合理估计,对考虑仿真可信度的舰炮虚拟校射方法进行了研究。对自适应加权贝叶斯估计方法进行了研究,一方面对仿真先验可信度的计算方法进行了分析,另一方面对考虑先验可信度的自适应加权贝叶斯估计算法进行了研究。在此基础上,结合舰炮虚拟校射的原理和需求,建立了舰炮虚拟校射诸元误差自适应加权贝叶斯估计模型。仿真验证表明:自适应加权贝叶斯估计方法能够利用试验数据对仿真模型的可信度进行有效验证并进一步实现对目标分布的有效估计;所设计的校射方法能够综合利用仿真模型和校射样本的优势,实现对诸元误差的合理估计,达到有效提高校射精度的目的。     

Stochastic call center staffing with uncertain arrival,service and abandonment rates: A Bayesian perspective

In this article, we introduce staffing strategies for the Erlang‐A queuing system in call center operations with uncertain arrival, service, and abandonment rates. In doing so, we model the system rates using gamma distributions that create randomness in operating characteristics used in the optimization formulation. We divide the day into discrete time intervals where a simulation based stochastic programming method is used to determine staffing levels. More specifically, we develop a model to select the optimal number of agents required for a given time interval by minimizing an expected cost function, which consists of agent and abandonment (opportunity) costs, while considering the service quality requirements such as the delay probability. The objective function as well as the constraints in our formulation are random variables. The novelty of our approach is to introduce a solution method for the staffing of an operation where all three system rates (arrival, service, and abandonment) are random variables. We illustrate the use of the proposed model using both real and simulated call center data. In addition, we provide solution comparisons across different formulations, consider a dynamic extension, and discuss sensitivity implications of changing constraint upper bounds as well as prior hyper‐parameters. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 460–478, 2016     

高功率密度柴油机智能化冷却系统控制策略

简要分析了未来坦克装甲车辆柴油机智能化控制冷却系统的必要性和可行性,提出了智能化冷却系统设计方案,阐述了其组成及工作原理,重点对智能化冷却系统控制策略进行了研究。针对某型柴油机,通过对其散热需求分析,提出了基于发动机工况的开环控制策略,同时,结合以发动机出口冷却水温度为控制目标提出了基于PID算法的闭环反馈控制策略。应用该策略可保证发动机在不同的环境和工况下冷却强度适宜,降低冷却系统的功耗。     

多元气体化学爆炸的超压安全泄放设计

压力容器在气液二相共存的情况下 ,采用UNIFAC法预测液相活度系数进行气液平衡计算 ,得到多元系统的气液平衡浓度 ,结合燃爆模拟实验数据 ,对容器危险工况下的超压进行安全泄放设计。     

基于最大后验风险的多层Bayes方法

为了对指数型产品进行可靠性鉴定,首先给出了失效率的多层先验分布,然后从最大后验风险的角度,运用Bayes方法,制定出可靠性鉴定试验方案.按照此鉴定试验方案,缩短了试验时间,从而降低了鉴定试验所需的费用.     

一类军事竞争系统的非线性分析

应用非线性系统的定性理论方法,对一类军事竞争系统进行了定性分析,研究了系统平衡点的性态,证明了系统在全平面不存在闭轨线。