基于采样的非线性滤波方法

在系统阐述贝叶斯估计理论的基础上,分析和总结了扩展卡尔曼滤波、Sigma点卡尔曼滤波以及粒子滤波等方法的特点、使用条件以及局限性.介绍了扩展卡尔曼滤波方法并指出其缺陷;介绍了无轨迹卡尔曼滤波、中心差分卡尔曼滤波等确定性采样方法,并在加权统计线性回归意义下将其归结为Sigma点卡尔曼滤波方法;介绍了随机采样方法-粒子滤波方法,并指出其主要的研究方向.最后,对非线性滤波的发展趋势进行了展望.     

饱和蒸气比热为负的讨论

本文由热力学理论定量指出,只要两相平衡的饱和蒸气比热为负,饱和蒸气经绝热膨胀后成过饱和蒸气,并讨论了饱和蒸气比热为负的条件。     

11 组元化学反应气体粘性激波层钝体绕流数值计算

本文采用１１组元化学模型对双曲体粘性激波层化学非平衡绕流流场进行了数值计算,给出了压力、温度,Ｎ＋２、Ｏ＋２、Ｎ＋、Ｏ＋和ＮＯ＋摩尔浓度及ｅ－数密度在驻点的分布,并与７组元、５组元的计算结果作了比较。     

利用验前信息时，飞行器试验鉴定技术研究—— 一次现场试验下的精度鉴定方法

研究了具有验前信息下的飞行器落点精度的鉴定问题,适用于只作一次现场飞行试验的情况。文中给出了鉴定方案,并进行了风险计算和信度分析。对于一次试验结果与验前信息的一致性．给出了验证方法。本文所提供的理论方法,可用于一般武器装备系统的试验定型和鉴定。     

确定舰艇备件携带量的贝叶斯方法

本文针对一些舰艇的小子样特点,推出了确定其备件携带量的贝叶斯方法。     

Dynamic learning,pricing, and ordering by a censored newsvendor

We address the problem of determining optimal ordering and pricing policies in a finite‐horizon newsvendor model with unobservable lost sales. The demand distribution is price‐dependent and involves unknown parameters. We consider both the cases of perishable and nonperishable inventory. A very general class of demand functions is studied in this paper. We derive the optimal ordering and pricing policies as unique functions of the stocking factor (which is a linear transformation of the safety factor). An important expression is obtained for the marginal expected value of information. As a consequence, we show when lost sales are unobservable, with perishable inventory the optimal stocking factor is always at least as large as the one given by the single‐period model; however, if inventory is nonperishable, this result holds only under a strong condition. This expression also helps to explain why the optimal stocking factor of a period may not increase with the length of the problem. We compare this behavior with that of a full information model. We further examine the implications of the results to the special cases when demand uncertainty is described by additive and multiplicative models. For the additive case, we show that if demand is censored, the optimal policy is to order more as well as charge higher retail prices when compared to the policies in the single‐period model and the full information model. We also compare the optimal and myopic policies for the additive and multiplicative models. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2007     

When are observed failures more informative than observed survivals?

A framework involving independent competing risks permits observing failures due to a specific cause and failures due to a competing cause, which constitute survival times from the cause of primary interest. Is observing more failures more informative than observing survivals? Intuitively, due to the definitiveness of failures, the answer seems to be the former. However, it has been shown before that this intuition holds when estimating the mean but not the failure rate of the exponential model with a gamma prior distribution for the failure rate. In this article, we address this question at a more general level. We show that for a certain class of distributions failures can be more informative than survivals for prediction of life length and vice versa for some others. We also show that for a large class of lifetime models, failure is less informative than survival for estimating the proportional hazards parameter with gamma, Jeffreys, and uniform priors. We further show that, for this class of lifetime models, on average, failure is more informative than survival for parameter estimation and for prediction. These results imply that the inferential purpose and properties of the lifetime distribution are germane for conducting life tests. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2013     

一类具有饱和发生率的SEIS传染病模型全局稳定性研究

研究一类易感者和潜伏者都有新增常数输入,疾病具有饱和发生率的SEIS传染病模型．经计算得到模型的基本再生数,证明当基本再生数〉1时,模型只存在惟一的地方病平衡点的结论,并利用特征方程和Hurwitz判据分析地方病平衡点的局部稳定性,通过采用第二加性复合矩阵理论证明地方病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性．     

流动相似律研究

有别于经典的量纲分析方法和对流动控制方程及其定解条件的无量纲化分析方法, 论文给出了一种分析流动相似律的新思路, 亦即将复杂的流动过程分解为若干个子过程, 然后分析每一个子过程中反映其本质性态的特征量。依据这一思路导出的高超声速热化学非平衡流动相似律与文献采用经典分析方法得到的流动相似律一致。     

早期可靠性数据的统计分析及其应用

在大型复杂产品研制过程中,通过原理样机的各类试验所获得的早期可靠性数据对产品早期可靠性的评估及可靠性设计具有重要意义。文中利用顺序约束模型研究了早期可靠性数据的处理方法,并将早期可靠性数据评估结果应用于可靠性增长计划的制定,从而有效减短了可靠性增长试验的时间。最后,给出了一个实际例子,以说明上述方法的应用。