New maximum entropy methods for modeling lifetime distributions

This article introduces two new maximum entropy (ME) methods for modeling the distribution of time to an event. One method is within the classical ME framework and provides characterizations of change point models such as the piecewise exponential distribution. The second method uses the entropy of the equilibrium distribution (ED) for the objective function and provides new characterizations of the exponential, Weibull, Pareto, and uniform distributions. With the same moment constraints, the classical ME and the maximum ED entropy algorithms generate different models for the interarrival time. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 427–434, 2014     

非对称Colonel Blotto博弈模型下的多信道功率分配抗干扰

针对智能干扰条件下传输速率固定的通信系统多信道功率分配问题,建立了非对称Colonel Blotto博弈模型。在完全信息条件下,推导出了各种功率预算约束下通信方和干扰方的等效单信道最优功率分配策略,进而证明了通信方和干扰方存在唯一混合纳什均衡策略,并求得了纳什均衡收益。基于等效单信道最优功率分布,提出了一种多重扫描直接列元素交换算法,可以快速构建多信道混合功率分配矩阵,且相比于线性规划方法,可适应更多的信道数和更广的功率分布范围。通过数值仿真,验证了所提多信道混合功率分配矩阵构造算法的有效性及多信道功率分配策略的最优性。     

Resource allocation in an asymmetric technology race with temporary advantages

We consider two opponents that compete in developing asymmetric technologies where each party's technology is aimed at damaging (or neutralizing) the other's technology. The situation we consider is different than the classical problem of commercial R&D races in two ways: First, while in commercial R&D races the competitors compete over the control of market share, in our case the competition is about the effectiveness of technologies with respect to certain capabilities. Second, in contrast with the “winner‐takes‐all” assumption that characterizes much of the literature on this field in the commercial world, we assume that the party that wins the race gains a temporary advantage that expires when the other party develops a superior technology. We formulate a variety of models that apply to a one‐sided situation, where one of the two parties has to determine how much to invest in developing a technology to counter another technology employed by the other party. The decision problems are expressed as (convex) nonlinear optimization problems. We present an application that provides some operational insights regarding optimal resource allocation. We also consider a two‐sided situation and develop a Nash equilibrium solution that sets investment values, so that both parties have no incentive to change their investments. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 59: 128–145, 2012     

高超声速飞行器滑翔再入性能评估

对高超声速滑翔再入飞行器性能评估的理论和方法进行了研究,并根据高超声速滑翔再入飞行器的特点,给出了高超声速滑翔再入飞行器性能评估的基本流程;通过对滑翔再入飞行器的系统分析,构建了该类飞行器的性能评估指标体系和评估模型;完成了性能评估软件的开发;对3种不同设计方案的性能进行了评估比较,结果表明该指标体系能够很好地反应此类飞行器的总体性能。     

大区域防空的进化群决策机制研究

大区域防空所涉及的区域广阔,因素众多,其作战计划的制定比较复杂。为解决此问题,提出了一种基于改进德尔菲法的具有进化学习功能的群决策机制,得到了纳什均衡解,使作战方案的制定更加合理,有助于防空作战效能的提高。     

消防管理监督机制新设计

本文探讨了市场经济下的消防管理监督机制的设计,用博弃理论构造了一个消防管理监督模型。提出了新时期消防管理监督应以防火检查和经济惩罚相结合的监管机制。     

Allocation with demand competition: Uniform,proportional, and lexicographic mechanisms

We examine capacity allocation mechanisms in a supply chain comprising a monopolistic supplier and two competing retailers with asymmetric market powers. The supplier allocates limited capacity to retailers according to uniform, proportional, or lexicographic mechanism. We study the impact of these allocation mechanisms on supplier pricing decisions and retailer ordering behavior. With individual order size no greater than supplier capacity, we show that all three mechanisms guarantee equilibrium ordering. We provide precise structures of retailer ordering decisions in Nash and dominant equilibria. Further, we compare the mechanisms from the perspective of the supplier, the retailers, and the supply chain. We show that regardless of whether retailer market powers are symmetric, lexicographic allocation with any priority sequence of retailers is better than the other two mechanisms for the supplier. Further, under lexicographic allocation, the supplier gains more profit by granting higher priority to the retailer with greater market power. We also extend our study to the case with multiple retailers. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 64: 85–107, 2017     

Log‐concave and concave distributions in reliability

Nonparametric classes of life distributions are usually based on the pattern of aging in some sense. The common parametric families of life distributions also feature monotone aging. In this paper we consider the class of log‐concave distributions and the subclass of concave distributions. The work is motivated by the fact that most of the common parametric models of life distributions (including Weibull, Gamma, log‐normal, Pareto, and Gompertz distributions) are log‐concave, while the remaining life of maintained and old units tend to have a concave distribution. The classes of concave and log‐concave distributions do not feature monotone aging. Nevertheless, these two classes are shown to have several interesting and useful properties. We examine the closure of these classes under a number of reliability operations, and provide sharp reliability bounds for nonmaintained and maintained units having life distribution belonging to these classes. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 46: 419–433, 1999     

A search game with a protector

A classic problem in Search Theory is one in which a searcher allocates resources to the points of the integer interval [1, n] in an attempt to find an object which has been hidden in them using a known probability function. In this paper we consider a modification of this problem in which there is a protector who can also allocate resources to the points; allocating these resources makes it more difficult for the searcher to find an object. We model the situation as a two‐person non‐zero‐sum game so that we can take into account the fact that using resources can be costly. It is shown that this game has a unique Nash equilibrium when the searcher's probability of finding an object located at point i is of the form (1 − exp (−λ_ix_i)) exp (−μ_iy_i) when the searcher and protector allocate resources x_i and y_i respectively to point i. An algorithm to find this Nash equilibrium is given. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47:85–96, 2000     

环境参数在线辨识及其在滑翔段制导中的应用

针对助推滑翔导弹,提出基于飞行环境参数在线辨识的滑翔段数值预测校正制导方法。综合考虑大气密度和气动系数对导弹运动的影响,引入滑翔段综合环境参数,利用扩展Kalman滤波方法对综合参数进行在线辨识。基于在线辨识结果,利用渐消记忆递推最小二乘方法在线建立环境参数预测模型,并利用最新辨识结果进行模型的在线修正。设计了纵向和横向制导律,并基于环境参数在线预测模型进行落点预测,以克服飞行环境扰动对落点预测精度的影响。进行了大气密度非定常扰动下的制导仿真,以及密度和气动参数随机扰动下的Monte Carlo仿真。仿真结果表明:环境参数在线预测模型能准确预报飞行环境参数,制导方法对飞行环境扰动具有较强的鲁棒性。