方差全局灵敏度求解的空间分割结合无迹变换方法

为有效计算基于方差的全局灵敏度指标尤其是非线性程度较高的响应函数的,将积分空间的可加性以及无迹变换结合起来,利用函数在子空间内非线性程度会降低以及无迹变换方法在概率空间内对低非线性函数性质具有强捕捉能力的特点,提出计算基于方差的全局灵敏度指标的高效方法。该方法只需产生一组无迹变换样本就可以近似求得各阶灵敏度指标,并且该近似解随空间分割个数的增加而收敛于真值。通过非线性程度较高的验证算例及工程算例验证了所提方法在处理非线性功能函数上的高效性和准确性。     

Missile defense and strategic stability: Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in South Korea

South Korea is threatened by its troubled relationship with North Korea. North Korea possesses a large cache of missiles as well as chemical and biological weapons, and the future potential to mount nuclear weapons on its missiles. The United States is also challenged because of its defense commitments to Seoul. As a countermeasure, the United States and South Korea decided to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defenses in South Korea. However, China has objected. Chinese scholars believe the THAAD radar would be able to track Chinese inter-continental ballistic missiles, thereby weakening their deterrent. A technical analysis does not support this assertion. However, it is vital for South Korea, given its proximity and economic interdependence, to reassure China. South Korea should highlight that THAAD will be deployed by the United States Forces Korea and is not a commitment by Seoul to become part of U.S.-led missile defenses in the Asia-Pacific.     

The NATO Response Force: A qualified failure no more?

With much fanfare, NATO declared its rapid reaction force—the NATO Response Force (NRF)—an Initial Operational Capability in 2004. This article addresses four questions: Where did the NRF come from? What does it look like in 2017? What have been the major obstacles for the NRF fulfilling its promises? And where is the NRF likely to go? The article holds two main arguments. First, due to inadequate fill-rates and disagreements as to the force’s operational role, the NRF was for many years a “qualified failure.” The force failed to become the operational tool envisioned by the allies in 2002. While not without effect, it fell hostage to the harsh reality of the expeditionary wars of Iraq and Afghanistan. Second, the NRF is off to a fresh beginning and will likely be considered at least a partial success by the allies in the years to come.     

领悟社会支持与高中生学习投入的关系:自尊和未来教育规划的链式中介作用

目的:探究领悟社会支持对学习投入的影响,以及自尊和未来教育规划的链式中介效应。方法:采用领悟社会支持量表、自尊量表、未来教育规划问卷和学习投入量表,对446名高中生进行施测。结果:①各变量两两之间均存在显著地正相关(r=0.32~0.50,p<0.001);②领悟社会支持能正向预测高中生学习投入;③在领悟社会支持对高中生学习投入的预测中存在三条路径:一是自尊的中介作用;二是未来教育规划的中介作用;三是自尊和未来教育规划的链式中介作用,效果值分别为:14.81%,27.78%和16.67%。结论:领悟社会支持不仅直接影响高中生学习投入,还通过自尊和未来教育规划影响高中生学习投入。     

Study of simple plane wave generator with an air-metal barrier

Plane wave generators (PWGs) are used to accelerate flyer plates to high velocities with their generated plane waves, which are widely used in the test of dynamic properties of materials. The traditional PWG is composed of two explosives with different detonation velocities. It is difficult to implement the related fabrication processes and control the generated waves due to its complicated structures. A simple plane wave generator is presented in this paper, which is composed of two identical cylindrical high explosive (HE) charges and an air-metal barrier. A theoretical model was established based on two different paths of the propagation of detonation waves, based on which the size of air-metal barrier was calculated for a given charge. The corresponding numerical simulations were also carried out by AUTODYN-2D^® based on the calculated results, which were used to compare with the theoretical calculations. A detonation wave with a flatness of 0.039 μs within the range of 70-percent diameter of the main charge was obtained through the simulations.     

Neural network modeling to evaluate the dynamic flow stress of high strength armor steels under high strain rate compression

An artificial neural network (ANN) constitutive model is developed for high strength armor steel tempered at 500 °C, 600 °C and 650 °C based on high strain rate data generated from split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) experiments. A new neural network configuration consisting of both training and validation is effectively employed to predict flow stress. Tempering temperature, strain rate and strain are considered as inputs, whereas flow stress is taken as output of the neural network. A comparative study on Johnson–Cook (J–C) model and neural network model is performed. It was observed that the developed neural network model could predict flow stress under various strain rates and tempering temperatures. The experimental stress–strain data obtained from high strain rate compression tests using SHPB, over a range of tempering temperatures (500–650 °C), strains (0.05–0.2) and strain rates (1000–5500/s) are employed to formulate J–C model to predict the high strain rate deformation behavior of high strength armor steels. The J-C model and the back-propagation ANN model were developed to predict the high strain rate deformation behavior of high strength armor steel and their predictability is evaluated in terms of correlation coefficient (R) and average absolute relative error (AARE). R and AARE for the J–C model are found to be 0.7461 and 27.624%, respectively, while R and AARE for the ANN model are 0.9995 and 2.58%, respectively. It was observed that the predictions by ANN model are in consistence with the experimental data for all tempering temperatures.     

一种航天侦察任务的关联度分析与去冗余方法

针对航天侦察需求响应中可能存在的任务重复产生问题,综合考虑任务的需求来源、质量要求、时间偏好及空间范围,提出一种基于任务关联度的任务冗余分析方法。首先,对航天侦察的相关要素进行分析度量,给出了基于四类要素的任务关联度计算方法,然后提出了通过任务之间的关联度来降低可替代任务产生概率的具体算法,进一步考虑了准确优先、公平优先以及混合等不同情况下的冗余度计算方法,最后,给出一个应用示例,说明所述分析方法的有效性。研究结果表明,该方法具有良好通用性,可为航天侦察任务的预处理提供有效支持。     

INCOMPLETE ROHLFS–SULLIVAN ANALYSIS OF THE COST-EFFECTIVENESS OF ARMORED TACTICAL WHEELED VEHICLES FOR OVERSEAS US ARMY OPERATIONS

This comment addresses the Rohlfs–Sullivan analysis titled: ‘The Cost-Effectiveness of Armored Tactical Wheeled Vehicles [TWVs] for Overseas US Army Operations.’ The analysis evaluated policies to replace Type 1 and 2 TWVs with Type 3s. There is no evidence the analysis factored in fatality causes, fatality relationships to vehicles, or compared survivability of vehicles. Furthermore, it did not note when Type 3 TWVs were requested, when they impacted fatalities, or TWV use policies. It also assumed Type 3 TWVs prompted negative unit behaviors while discounting evidence of positive behaviors. In summary, the analysis is incomplete and should be revised.     

龙珍高级中学创建特色学校的探索与实践

创办特色学校是学生发展的需要,是学校生存与发展的需要,是学校个性化发展的需要。在由"学校特色"到"特色学校"这个复杂而曲折的发展过程中,理念创新是前提,坚持"普惠性"原则、着眼于学生群体素质的整体优化是本质,科学分析内外环境选定优势特色项目是关键,长期坚持注重量的积累是基础。龙珍高级中学顺应教育发展的需要,科学定位学校发展特色,遵循特色学校创建规律,全体师生广泛参与,积极探索和实践,使特色学校创建工作初见成效。     

Gas metal arc welding of high nitrogen stainless steel with Ar-N2-O2 ternary shielding gas

High nitrogen stainless steel with nitrogen content of 0.75％was welded by gas metal arc welding with Ar—N2-O2 ternary shielding gas. The effect of the ternary shielding gas on the retention and improvement of nitrogen content in the weld was identified. Surfacing test was conducted first to compare the ability of O2 and CO2 in prompting nitrogen dissolution. The nitrogen content of the surfacing metal with O2 is slightly higher than CO2. And then Ar—N2-O2 shielding gas was applied to weld high nitrogen stainless steel. After using N2-containing shielding gas, the nitrogen content of the weld was improved by 0.1 wt％. As N2 continued to increase, the increment of nitrogen content was not obvious, but the ferrite decreased from the top to the bottom. When the proportion of N2 reached 20％, a full austenitic weld was obtained and the tensile strength was improved by 8.7％. Combined with the results of surfacing test and welding test, it is concluded that the main effect of N2 is to inhibit the escape of nitrogen and suppress the ni-trogen diffusion from bottom to the top in the molten pool.