一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型

研究一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型,得到了模型的基本再生数.通过线性化的方法,运用LaSalle-Lyapunov定理,证明当基本再生数R01时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;通过迭代的方法,证明当基本再生数R01时,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的.     

Single channel source separation of radar fuze mixed signal based on phase difference analysis

A new method based on phase difference analysis is proposed for the single-channel mixed signal separation of single-channel radar fuze. This method is used to estimate the mixing coefficients of de-noised signals through the cumulants of mixed signals, solve the candidate data set by the mixing coefficients and signal analytical form, and resolve the problem of vector ambiguity by analyzing the phase differences. The signal separation is realized by exchanging data of the solutions. The waveform similarity coefficients are calculated, and the time–frequency distributions of separated signals are analyzed. The results show that the proposed method is effective.     

导弹尾罩分离运动不确定性分析

为了检验实际条件下导弹尾罩分离运动可能存在的风险,建立了基于凯恩方程的分离过程多体动力学模型与基于关键点-碰撞边界相对位置判断的碰撞检测模型,采用蒙特卡洛方法与Morris筛选法对输入参数存在随机偏差时尾罩分离运动受到的影响进行了不确定性分析,通过蒙特卡洛法得到了分离运动状态的散布特性,通过Morris筛选法得到了各输入变量的影响程度排序。研究结果表明:尾罩分离方案的可靠性较高,在输入参数存在偏差情况下也可满足安全性指标,各项输入参数中风干扰、推冲器的推力偏差对尾罩落点距离的影响相对较大,而导弹点火时尾罩的横向距离受风与出筒速度的影响相对较大。     

二维相关的G0分布雷达杂波仿真

G0分布模型可实现对不同均匀度雷达杂波的较好拟合,二维相关G0分布雷达杂波的精确仿真对雷达系统设计和性能评估具有重要意义。在利用分段多项式拟合的方法近似表示非线性变换的基础上,将二维相关的高斯随机过程作为输入,提出了基于无记忆非线性变换的二维相关G0分布雷达杂波仿真方法。更进一步,为了实现对杂波幅度与相关性的独立控制,并仿真具有同相和正交分量的相参雷达杂波,推导了单视条件下G0分布模型的球不变随机过程特征函数表达式,提出了基于球不变随机过程的仿真方法。仿真结果表明,这两种方法均能够仿真产生满足幅度和相关性要求的二维相关G0分布雷达杂波。     

Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014     

The sixteenth-century antecedents of special operations ‘small war’

The first conceptual, theoretical treatises about small war (la petite guerre) as special operations appeared only from the middle of the seventeenth century. The term is not used in the eighteenth-century sense of ‘special operations’ in older sources. The supposed absence of any treatment of the subject is surprising considering the obsession with the ‘art of war’ in the Renaissance, but other authors attribute it to a supposed antinomy between chivalric ideals and irregular warfare. But the absence of explicit manuals on the subject is not evidence of absence of advanced reflection on this kind of operations in the Middle Ages and in Early Modern times. We should thus look elsewhere, in other genres, for writings that contain and pass on military knowledge. Epics, romances, educational and military treatises, and memoirs in fact contain elements of a theory of special operations, even though these genres differ from our conception of rationality inherited from the Enlightenment.     

Guerrillas and bandits in the Serranía de Ronda, 1810–1812

The Spanish Guerrilla (1808–1812) which has given its name to ideologically motivated insurgencies is usually portrayed as a patriotic uprising against the French occupation forces of Napoleon. It was that, in part, but also many other things besides. This case study illustrates its overlap and convergence with banditry but also with social unrest turned into uprisings directed by poor Spaniards against their creditors, as in the storming of Ronda by insurgents in 1810. From the propaganda of the day to the subsequent Spanish patriotic historiography, there has been a tendency to exaggerate the amplitude of events and also the damage that was done to the French forces and the casualty figures inflicted on them.     

竞争失效场合仿真基加速试验优化设计方法

竞争失效场合加速试验技术是加速试验由简单结构产品向复杂结构产品推广应用的基础,而如何设计试验方案使统计结果最准确、代价最小,是其中的主要研究内容之一.针对传统解析优化方法推导过程比较复杂的问题,提出了一种基于Monte Carlo仿真的竞争失效场合加速试验优化设计方法.在备选方案较多的情况下,通过引入曲面拟合进行间接优...     

Optimal pricing and inventory control policy in periodic‐review systems with fixed ordering cost and lost sales

This paper studies a periodic‐review pricing and inventory control problem for a retailer, which faces stochastic price‐sensitive demand, under quite general modeling assumptions. Any unsatisfied demand is lost, and any leftover inventory at the end of the finite selling horizon has a salvage value. The cost component for the retailer includes holding, shortage, and both variable and fixed ordering costs. The retailer's objective is to maximize its discounted expected profit over the selling horizon by dynamically deciding on the optimal pricing and replenishment policy for each period. We show that, under a mild assumption on the additive demand function, at the beginning of each period an (s,S) policy is optimal for replenishment, and the value of the optimal price depends on the inventory level after the replenishment decision has been done. Our numerical study also suggests that for a sufficiently long selling horizon, the optimal policy is almost stationary. Furthermore, the fixed ordering cost (K) plays a significant role in our modeling framework. Specifically, any increase in K results in lower s and higher S. On the other hand, the profit impact of dynamically changing the retail price, contrasted with a single fixed price throughout the selling horizon, also increases with K. We demonstrate that using the optimal policy values from a model with backordering of unmet demands as approximations in our model might result in significant profit penalty. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

任务空间概念模型VV&A研究

任务空间概念模型是现实世界军事知识的第一层抽象,是仿真系统开发的业务基础。所以任务空间概念模型的质量直接影响到仿真系统的质量,任务空间概念模型自身的VV&A是一个非常值得关注的问题。任务空间概念建模本质上看是军事领域的知识表示或者需求描述,定性描述占主要,定量成分非常少。因此,传统的通过分析输出数据的方法不能适应任务空间概念模型的特点。概要介绍了任务空间概念模型建模,并且提出了从专家法、静态校核机制、概念执行机制三个角度来考察模型质量的思路。