The nuclear education of Donald J. Trump

During the 2016 American presidential campaign, Democrats and Republicans alike repeatedly raised concerns at the prospect of Donald Trump being in charge of America’s nuclear arsenal based on his seemingly unstable personality. Unfortunately, this emphasis on Trump’s character distracted attention from any in-depth investigation into his long-standing interest in nuclear issues. This article seeks to remedy this shortcoming by highlighting the nuclear legacy Trump will inherit from Obama, surveying his statements on nuclear issues over more than three decades, and providing an analysis of constraining factors on his administration’s nuclear agenda, particularly domestic institutions. It finds that most of Trump’s views on nuclear issues are relatively consistent with past Republican presidents. Where he is unique, however, is in his use of social media, which has potential implications on nuclear signaling.     

Markovian approximation for manufacturing systems of unreliable machines in tandem

This paper studies production planning of manufacturing systems of unreliable machines in tandem. The manufacturing system considered here produces one type of product. The demand is assumed to be a Poisson process and the processing time for one unit of product in each machine is exponentially distributed. A broken machine is subject to a sequence of repairing processes. The up time and the repairing time in each phase are assumed to be exponentially distributed. We study the manufacturing system by considering each machine as an individual system with stochastic supply and demand. The Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP) is applied to model the process of supply. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. We employ (s, S) policy as production control. Fast algorithms are presented to solve the average running costs of the machine system for a given (s, S) policy and hence the approximated optimal (s, S) policy. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 65–78, 2001     

提高陆军合成部队指挥人员装备作战运用能力的几点思考

美国民营航天运输公司Space X创立十余年来,发展成绩斐然。与此同时,Space X是美国航天领域军民融合的一个侧影,其迅猛的发展历程反映出美国在航天领域以国家政策为牵引,以技术融合为抓手,以商业计划为支撑的军民融合发展特点,同时启示我国军民融合应通过强化政府搭台、宏观调控、物尽其用、绩效评估,以加速形成体制机制"军民互通"、军工市场"军民共荣"、基础资源"军民共享"、监督管理"军民共管"的繁荣持续的军民融合深度发展局面。     

谈奥巴马时代美国的联合国政策

奥巴马对联合国政策的调整,反映出奥巴马政府全球外交和安全战略的需要,体现了实用主义外交风格。较之于其前任,奥巴马将更加重视联合国维和行动,并让联合国更多地参与解决包括伊拉克和阿富汗在内的热点问题。奥巴马的联合国政策面临挑战,联合国仅仅是奥巴马实现美国国家利益的手段之一。     

美军推进人工智能军事应用的举措、挑战及启示

人工智能技术的发展加速了军事智能化的脚步。本文分析了美军在推进人工智能军事应用方面采取的一系列举措,如注重国家战略层面的顶层设计,出台一系列智能化发展战略规划;部署各类军事智能化研究项目,开展大数据、智能算法研究,促进人工智能技术向情报处理、无人作战平台、指挥控制、武器装备系统、作战方式变革的渗透转化;重视智能化技术的基础理论研究和人才培养,聚焦核心和关键技术的突破,夯实军事智能化发展的基础。阐述了美军在推进人工智能军事应用进程中面临的来自技术、信任、伦理等多方面的挑战,并从成熟算法民转军用、寻求认知智能算法突破、培养军事智能化复合型人才等角度提出几点启示。     

近期美国海军南海地区活动态势分析

随着南海地区力量结构和美对华战略的转变,南海地区成为中美战略博弈的焦点。为围堵遏制中国的崛起,美国针对中国在南海实施了一系列海上挑衅行为。美国海军作为美国军事干预的主要力量,从兵力部署、演习演训、“航行自由”行动等着手,积极拉拢域内外盟友,展开并强化了在南海地区的军事活动。这些军事活动表现出极强的针对性和实战性,致使中美海上摩擦和竞争加剧。未来,美国为维护主导的全球秩序,将进一步提升美国海军在南海地区的威慑力。美国海军会借助并增加域内盟友的军事力量,继续维持高强度的装备平台活动及“航行自由”行动,推动海上力量合作。     

Exact analysis of (R,s, S) inventory control systems with lost sales and zero lead time

We study an (R, s, S) inventory control policy with stochastic demand, lost sales, zero lead‐time and a target service level to be satisfied. The system is modeled as a discrete time Markov chain for which we present a novel approach to derive exact closed‐form solutions for the limiting distribution of the on‐hand inventory level at the end of a review period, given the reorder level (s) and order‐up‐to level (S). We then establish a relationship between the limiting distributions for adjacent values of the reorder point that is used in an efficient recursive algorithm to determine the optimal parameter values of the (R, s, S) replenishment policy. The algorithm is easy to implement and entails less effort than solving the steady‐state equations for the corresponding Markov model. Point‐of‐use hospital inventory systems share the essential characteristics of the inventory system we model, and a case study using real data from such a system shows that with our approach, optimal policies with significant savings in inventory management effort are easily obtained for a large family of items.     

基于MVC的分布式作战应用框架研究

MVC作为一种经典的软件模式,在界面程序设计和B/S系统中得到了广泛应用.随着分布式技术的发展,MVC的含义和用途变得更加广泛,不仅可以用于组件的构造,也可用于分布式程序的设计.针对MVC模式和分布式作战应用的特点进行了深入分析,提出了一种基于MVC的分布式作战应用框架,在保持传统C/S架构优势的同时,增强了系统的可扩展性,实现了业务流程和逻辑计算的有效分离,为大型C/S作战应用系统的开发提供了一个有效的架构解决方案.     

力的空间连续条件及应用研究

分析了力的空间不连续性 ,导出了力的空间连续条件 ,并结合实例提出了两种实现力值连续变化的轨道计算方法     

基于Petri网的C2S性能分析方法研究

给出了用时间连续随机Petri网和时间离散随机Petri网计算系统稳态概率的方法,并将其应用于指挥控制系统(C2S)的性能分析中,分析结果表明这种计算方法是可行的。