Markovian approximation for manufacturing systems of unreliable machines in tandem

This paper studies production planning of manufacturing systems of unreliable machines in tandem. The manufacturing system considered here produces one type of product. The demand is assumed to be a Poisson process and the processing time for one unit of product in each machine is exponentially distributed. A broken machine is subject to a sequence of repairing processes. The up time and the repairing time in each phase are assumed to be exponentially distributed. We study the manufacturing system by considering each machine as an individual system with stochastic supply and demand. The Markov Modulated Poisson Process (MMPP) is applied to model the process of supply. Numerical examples are given to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. We employ (s, S) policy as production control. Fast algorithms are presented to solve the average running costs of the machine system for a given (s, S) policy and hence the approximated optimal (s, S) policy. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48: 65–78, 2001     

Exact analysis of (R,s, S) inventory control systems with lost sales and zero lead time

We study an (R, s, S) inventory control policy with stochastic demand, lost sales, zero lead‐time and a target service level to be satisfied. The system is modeled as a discrete time Markov chain for which we present a novel approach to derive exact closed‐form solutions for the limiting distribution of the on‐hand inventory level at the end of a review period, given the reorder level (s) and order‐up‐to level (S). We then establish a relationship between the limiting distributions for adjacent values of the reorder point that is used in an efficient recursive algorithm to determine the optimal parameter values of the (R, s, S) replenishment policy. The algorithm is easy to implement and entails less effort than solving the steady‐state equations for the corresponding Markov model. Point‐of‐use hospital inventory systems share the essential characteristics of the inventory system we model, and a case study using real data from such a system shows that with our approach, optimal policies with significant savings in inventory management effort are easily obtained for a large family of items.     

基于通用扩张状态观测器的鲁棒飞行控制方法

针对参数不确定、外界干扰与测量噪声情况下飞行控制问题,提出一种基于通用扩张状态观测器的鲁棒飞行控制方法。基于状态相关的Riccati方程控制方法对飞行器俯仰通道非线性模型进行扩展线性化;引入基于通用扩张状态观测器的控制方法,设计干扰补偿增益,实现对外界干扰的估计与补偿;通过在线解算状态相关矩阵及代数黎卡提方程,得出状态反馈增益与干扰补偿增益,实现对飞行器期望攻角的跟踪控制。与已有方法对比表明,所提方法不仅对系统模型不确定性与外界干扰具有较强的鲁棒性,而且在较大测量噪声情况下,其依然能够保证良好的跟踪控制效果,具有较强的工程应用价值。     

提高陆军合成部队指挥人员装备作战运用能力的几点思考

美国民营航天运输公司Space X创立十余年来,发展成绩斐然。与此同时,Space X是美国航天领域军民融合的一个侧影,其迅猛的发展历程反映出美国在航天领域以国家政策为牵引,以技术融合为抓手,以商业计划为支撑的军民融合发展特点,同时启示我国军民融合应通过强化政府搭台、宏观调控、物尽其用、绩效评估,以加速形成体制机制"军民互通"、军工市场"军民共荣"、基础资源"军民共享"、监督管理"军民共管"的繁荣持续的军民融合深度发展局面。     

An integral equation for the second moment function of a geometric process and its numerical solution

In this article, an integral equation satisfied by the second moment function M₂(t) of a geometric process is obtained. The numerical method based on the trapezoidal integration rule proposed by Tang and Lam for the geometric function M(t) is adapted to solve this integral equation. To illustrate the numerical method, the first interarrival time is assumed to be one of four common lifetime distributions, namely, exponential, gamma, Weibull, and lognormal. In addition to this method, a power series expansion is derived using the integral equation for the second moment function M₂(t), when the first interarrival time has an exponential distribution.     

美军推进人工智能军事应用的举措、挑战及启示

人工智能技术的发展加速了军事智能化的脚步。本文分析了美军在推进人工智能军事应用方面采取的一系列举措,如注重国家战略层面的顶层设计,出台一系列智能化发展战略规划;部署各类军事智能化研究项目,开展大数据、智能算法研究,促进人工智能技术向情报处理、无人作战平台、指挥控制、武器装备系统、作战方式变革的渗透转化;重视智能化技术的基础理论研究和人才培养,聚焦核心和关键技术的突破,夯实军事智能化发展的基础。阐述了美军在推进人工智能军事应用进程中面临的来自技术、信任、伦理等多方面的挑战,并从成熟算法民转军用、寻求认知智能算法突破、培养军事智能化复合型人才等角度提出几点启示。     

近期美国海军南海地区活动态势分析

随着南海地区力量结构和美对华战略的转变,南海地区成为中美战略博弈的焦点。为围堵遏制中国的崛起,美国针对中国在南海实施了一系列海上挑衅行为。美国海军作为美国军事干预的主要力量,从兵力部署、演习演训、“航行自由”行动等着手,积极拉拢域内外盟友,展开并强化了在南海地区的军事活动。这些军事活动表现出极强的针对性和实战性,致使中美海上摩擦和竞争加剧。未来,美国为维护主导的全球秩序,将进一步提升美国海军在南海地区的威慑力。美国海军会借助并增加域内盟友的军事力量,继续维持高强度的装备平台活动及“航行自由”行动,推动海上力量合作。     

大型装备费用预测中的系统分析

将大型装备连续建造的总成本及控制变量作为一个变化系统,并用灰色系统理论进行建模分析,采用龙格-库塔法求解微分方程组.通过对精度的分析,指出使用灰色系统预测结果不能采用统计分析方法的相关性检验标准,而要通过预测数列与原始数列的逼近情况来判断其预测精度.     

求刚性中子动力学方程数值解的新方法

中子动力学方程是刚性方程,数值计算很费机时,为减少计算机时提出了许多算法,常用的有隐式盖分法、多步法和自动变步长法等,著名的方法有吉尔方法和埃米特方法.但这些方法的计算程序复杂且总计算时间减少不明显.消去刚性法是一个全新的算法,稳定步长可达到20 s,计算时间大大下降.     

时域磁场积分方程迭代求解

利用时间步进算法(MOT)求解时域电场积分方程解决导体目标瞬态散射问题时,其计算结果不稳定,会发生后期震荡现象。通过对时域磁场积分方程显式和隐式方案的分析,推导出一种隐式的迭代方案,它不但易于实现,而且数值结果表明这种时域磁场积分方程MOT迭代方案比时域电场积分方程MOT具有更好的稳定性,延缓了后期震荡效应。