防空导弹总体设计方法的新发展——弹族化设计

研究了防空导弹一种新的总体设计思想———弹族化设计 ,论述了防空导弹弹族的设计与研制采用预先计划的产品改进P3 I(Pre PlannedProductImprovement)系统方法的必要性与有效性 ,通过对一个覆盖全空域、包含有 3种导弹的防空导弹弹族进行一体化优化设计 ,其结果证明了弹族化设计方法的可行性和优越性     

潜射弹道导弹出水姿态分析

分析了潜艇深度、纵倾角、横倾角、海面风速、海面波长、平均波高等因素对潜射导弹的偏航角、俯仰角、滚动角、偏航角速度、俯仰角速度、滚动角速度的影响。由于实验数据比较分散,不适合神经网络的训练,所以首先对实验数据模糊化,并用以对神经网络的训练。用训练好的神经网络分析了潜艇单因素变化的导弹出水姿态。     

A general model of heterogeneous system lifetimes and conditions for system burn‐in

Burn‐in is a technique to enhance reliability by eliminating weak items from a population of items having heterogeneous lifetimes. System burn‐in can improve system reliability, but the conditions for system burn‐in to be performed after component burn‐in remain a little understood mathematical challenge. To derive such conditions, we first introduce a general model of heterogeneous system lifetimes, in which the component burn‐in information and assembly problems are related to the prediction of system burn‐in. Many existing system burn‐in models become special cases and two important results are identified. First, heterogeneous system lifetimes can be understood naturally as a consequence of heterogeneous component lifetimes and heterogeneous assembly quality. Second, system burn‐in is effective if assembly quality variation in the components and connections which are arranged in series is greater than a threshold, where the threshold depends on the system structure and component failure rates. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 50: 364–380, 2003.     

微小卫星编队飞行轨道动力学及相对位置保持控制方法

微小卫星编队飞行是20世纪90年代中、后期出现的航天新概念,它是通过一组群聚卫星的协同工作完成相应的空间任务,具有广阔的应用前景。对微小卫星编队飞行的轨道动力学建模进行了详细研究,并应用势函数方法推导了用于卫星编队飞行相对位置保持的连续控制律及离散控制律。     

武器装备排气系统红外抑制器技术综述

主要介绍了排气系统红外抑制器的原理,归纳了建立抑制器模型的方法,列举了多种提高红外抑制器性能的方案和一些重要实验结果。同时对抑制器发展现状进行了介绍和总结,并作出了比较和展望。     

Merely ‘Docile Self-Deception’? German Experiences with Nuclear Consultation in NATO

ABSTRACT

Recent nuclear-weapons-related consultation in NATO within the framework of the Defence and Deterrence Posture Review sheds light on historical experiences with nuclear consultation in NATO. In the early years of the Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), which became the main forum for multilateral nuclear consultation in the alliance, developing a nuclear weapons first use doctrine was of particular importance. This process led to the adoption of the Provisional Political Guidelines (PPGs) on the threat to initiate the use of nuclear weapons. With a focus on West Germany as the primary addressee of the NPG, it will be postulated that nuclear consultation functioned and may still be seen as an essential tool to manage the credibility of US extended nuclear deterrence in the framework of NATO.     

The fateful phoenix: the revival of Al-Qa’ida in Iraq

Although the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is seen as a novel manifestation of Islamic extremism, it is in fact the latest, albeit perhaps the most effective, of a long line of revivalist movements in the Islamic and the Arab worlds. Its motivations – hisba and jihad – differ little from its predecessors and its ambitions – to create a state organised in accordance with the precepts of the Islamic caliphate – reflect a long-standing Islamic ambition. It differs, of course, in terms of the sophistication of its political and military strategies, which mirror the contemporary complexities of the world in which it operates, but its objectives recall long-standing Islamic ideals, even if articulated in radically brutal and extremist ways. More importantly, perhaps, ISIS or Da’ish, to give it its Arabic sobriquet, reflects the enormous degree of resentment inside the Middle East at the ways in which Western powers have intervened in regional affairs over recent years, particularly their support for regimes and economic systems there that have betrayed, in the popular imaginary, the essential principles of social justice that lie at the root of Islamic vision of ideal social order. Indeed, in many respects, its analysis of the world in which it operates and of the objectives it seeks differ little in essence from those any other resistance and rejectionist movement, whether religious or sectarian. More specifically, it has been the sectarian conflict that resulted from the reversal of political order in Iraq as a result of the 2003 American-led invasion that has driven the success of the movement in capturing widespread Sunni support. Whether it can manage the complexities of the administration of a state remains open to question.     

动态滑翔运动建模、机理分析与航迹优化

信天翁凭借动态滑翔的飞行技巧从梯度风中获取能量,从而在几乎不拍翅膀的情况下进行长时间、长距离飞行,这种技巧应用于小型无人机上可拓展其完成任务的能力。基于飞行器动力学对梯度风场中的无人机运动方程进行推导和简化处理;利用简化的运动方程,分别从非惯性参考系中的动能定理和机械能变化的角度,对动态滑翔获取能量的机理进行分析;利用微分平坦法,以最小平均控制输入变化率为目标函数,对徘徊模式和平移模式的动态滑翔航迹进行优化计算。分析结果表明:逆风爬升、顺风下滑是动态滑翔基本获能方式。优化结果表明:控制输入变得更加平滑,甚至出现阶段性的常值,使得控制更加简化;徘徊模式下,当风梯度作为决策变量时,优化过程可在[0,0.5 s-1]的区间上找到使得目标函数值最小的风梯度;平移模式下,目标函数值在该区间上单调递减。     

一种改进的均方根容积粒子滤波算法

传统的粒子滤波算法在重要性采样估计时忽略了当前量测影响。在非线性场景下,传统的粒子滤波导致个别粒子具有大权值,造成估计结果精度差。针对该问题,结合均方根容积卡尔曼滤波(SCKF)算法和Gating技术,提出了一种新的重要性函数估计算法。本算法将后验概率作为重要性采样函数,通过利用SCKF和统计距离,建立粒子与量测的关联关系,实现对重要性采样函数的均值和协方差矩阵的估计。而后,使用粒子滤波算法,对多目标状态和数目进行估计。实验表明,在非线性跟踪场景下,本算法估计精度高,估计结果稳定。     

基于粒子滤波的目标跟踪抗野值算法

运用粒子滤波对目标位置进行跟踪时,测量数据的异常突变点、目标的机动转弯、粒子数量的制约和重要性密度函数的优劣都会导致估计误差较大的野值出现,这将严重影响雷达对目标的跟踪精度。现有的野值剔除方法在目标发生机动时,都存在误剔率较高的问题。针对这个问题,采用莱特准则与机动门限准则相结合的方法,提出了不确定观测点的概念,设计了一种适用于机动目标的抗野值粒子滤波算法。仿真结果表明,该方法能较好地检测和更新野值,降低跟踪误差,提高跟踪精度。