ADVANCED US CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS AND NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

The Obama administration has made a great effort to increase the role of advanced conventional weaponry in US national security thinking and practice, in part to help reinvigorate the global nuclear disarmament agenda by reducing the role played by nuclear weapons in the US defense posture. However, such a strategy is fundamentally flawed because increases in US conventional superiority will exacerbate US relative strength vis-à-vis other powers, and therefore make the prospect of a nuclear weapon-free world seem less attractive to Washington's current and potential nuclear rivals. Consequently, it is highly likely that the impact of efforts to increase US advanced conventional superiority through ballistic missile defense and a conventional “prompt global strike” program will ensure that the Obama administration is adopting a pathway to nuclear abolition on which it is the sole traveler for the foreseeable future.     

信息化条件下空战威胁评估指标体系

目标威胁评估是空战决策研究的重要组成部分,评价指标是进行威胁评估的前提和基础。根据现代空战的特点,借鉴网络中心战思想,从空间态势、物理域、信息域、认知域4个角度,构建了信息化条件下空战目标威胁评估指标体系,并对指标体系进行了完备性、合理性、有效性检验。通过实例分析表明威胁评估指标能较好地反映信息化条件下空中目标的实际威胁,为空战决策研究提供参考。     

飞航导弹故障飞行落点概率计算方法

针对飞航导弹故障飞行落点概率难以准确计算的问题,通过分析导弹的各个分系统的故障机理重新提出五种故障模式,依据逐系统串联的原理建立了故障模式的概率分配计算模型;在对发射、飞行和故障后坠落等阶段进行分析的基础上建立各故障模式的仿真模型;最后应用蒙特卡洛方法对某型导弹故障飞行落点的概率分布进行了仿真计算。     

A trajectory for homeland ballistic missile defense

The Ground-based Midcourse Defense system is intended to protect the US homeland against limited attacks from intermediate- and long-range ballistic missiles. It has succeeded in intercepting target missiles and can engage a threat launched from North Korea or the Middle East, targeting any point in the USA. Nevertheless, high-profile struggles and program changes related to homeland ballistic missile defense (BMD) continue to make headlines. The most significant struggle has been a string of three straight intercept test failures over five years, followed by the recent successful intercept test in June 2014. This article first briefly reviews the current threats of concern. It then examines homeland BMD policy objectives, followed by the current major technical issues in supporting these objectives and, then, the likelihood of negating a warhead. Finally, it highlights major considerations that should be part of the trajectory the US government takes moving forward.     

基于核主成分分析方法的水面舰艇空中目标威胁评估?

对来袭空中目标的威胁进行评估与排序是舰艇对空火力分配的重要一环。根据来袭空中目标的特点,在确定目标指标后进行相应量化,针对来袭目标各指标间非线性的特点,提出使用核主成分分析法对目标信息进行特征提取,随后依据核主成分方差贡献率对威胁目标进行评估与排序。通过仿真算例验证,所得结果较为准确、客观,有效地克服传统方法中主观性较强的问题,并且在对指标数据提取的过程中降低了相关信息维数,降低了计算复杂度,为舰艇防空作战威胁评估提供了新途径。     

内埋式导弹武器安全分离地面试验关键技术

内埋式机载导弹武器在发射过程中需经历复杂发射控制过程,为验证内埋弹射发射安全分离技术,提供了一种地面验证试验方法,给出了试验设计方案,将试验划分为综合对接与地面分离验证两部分,设计了综合对接试验系统,给出了导弹模拟装置原理及组成;设计了地面分离验证系统,讨论了内埋武器舱遮挡导弹遥测信号问题解决办法及试验数据录取方法,设计了试验验证序号流程,为内埋弹射导弹武器发射过程地面验证提供一种技术手段。     

接敌前基于D-S理论的空战意图预测

接敌前是指敌机刚进入我方预警系统的探测范围(一般为400 km),并截获敌机,获得了敌机的运动参数,对敌机进行实时跟踪。为了完成对敌机目标意图的预测,为接敌前的自主决策打下基础,在D-S证据理论的基础上,选取合适的态势元素,分析各态势元素对敌机意图的影响,建立了目标意图预测模型,该模型具有一定的表达性和准确性。仿真实验表明,使用该模型能在敌机相距较远时以一定的准确性判断敌机的意图,实用性强,为接敌前基于意图预测的自主决策留出足够的时间。     

舰空导弹超视距协同反导装备体系结构设计方法

以网络化舰空导弹超视距协同反导作战装备发展需求为牵引,基于 DoDAF （ Department of Defense Architecture Framework）1?5体系结构框架,利用体系结构设计软件SA（ System Architect）,对协同反导作战装备体系结构进行了初步探索性和概念性设计,提出了体系结构框架裁减、作战视图设计、系统视图设计和体系结构评估等方法,对实现整个装备体系互连、互通、互操作,以及避免重复建设具有重要指导意义。     

基于云遗传算法的防空导弹目标分配问题

针对传统遗传算法在防空导弹目标优化分配中存在的缺陷,提出了一种更为有效的云遗传算法。通过该算法对防空导弹目标分配模型进行仿真求解,得出防空导弹射击目标的最优目标分配方案。通过算例分析,云遗传算法相比传统遗传算法收敛速度快,搜索效率高出一倍左右,对产生局部最优解情况进行了合理有效的控制,可操作性、优越性更强。     

A model for geographically distributed combat interactions of swarming naval and air forces

This article describes the Distributed Interaction Campaign Model (DICM), an exploratory campaign analysis tool and asset allocation decision‐aid for managing geographically distributed and swarming naval and air forces. The model is capable of fast operation, while accounting for uncertainty in an opponent's plan. It is intended for use by commanders and analysts who have limited time for model runs, or a finite budget. The model is purpose‐built for the Pentagon's Office of Net Assessment, and supports analysis of the following questions: What happens when swarms of geographically distributed naval and air forces engage each other and what are the key elements of the opponents’ force to attack? Are there changes to force structure that make a force more effective, and what impacts will disruptions in enemy command and control and wide‐area surveillance have? Which insights are to be gained by fast exploratory mathematical/computational campaign analysis to augment and replace expensive and time‐consuming simulations? An illustrative example of model use is described in a simple test scenario. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 562–576, 2016