Country survey VIII: Federal republic of Yugoslavia

This survey article focuses on defence economics issues and provides data and analysis on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia's (FRY) defence policy, defence spending, the size of its armed forces, its defence industries and the cost of the civil war. The main section is devoted to the period from 1990 to the present and deals with the following aspects: the situation after the break‐up of the former Yugoslavia, general economic data; the cost of the civil war, the defence budget; the armed forces; the manufacture of armaments and the structure of the defence industry.     

FOUNDATIONS FOR REGIONAL SECURITY: PREPARING TO KEEP THE PEACE IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

Since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, the continent of Africa, particularly Greater East Africa, has played an increasingly signifi cant role in United States (US) national security strategy. Transnational security threats and political authoritarianism continue to plague the region, creating calls for greater US and international involvement. Before reacting to the situation, however, it is prudent to pause, reflect, and understand that the United States developed strategic relations with nation-states in the region well before contemporary concerns for international terrorism and ungoverned spaces entered the strategic lexicon. Toward a more comprehensive understanding of Greater East Africa's strategic history, this paper examines the core strategic relationship in the region, US-Kenya relations, its origins and implications, and offers policy recommendations that will affect future international security.     

Increased Chinese and American defence involvement in Africa

There is often a perception put forth of a fight for supremacy between China and the USA. This is often the case when discussing the continent of Africa. Both countries have recently increased their involvement in Africa for a variety of reasons. In 2011, China surpassed the USA as Africa's largest trading partner, with Africa predicted to be Beijing's largest trading partner by 2017. As expected, their bilateral and multilateral defence cooperation with strategic countries and organisations has matured and expanded along with it. Washington's own economic interests, al-Qa'ida and threats to maritime security are some of the crucial elements behind the US's presence on the continent. This article analyses both the USA and China's rising defence involvement in Africa. It compares and contrasts their similarities and differences, and argues that cooperation in certain areas can prove beneficial for all parties involved.     

一种基于解析冗余关系的半定性故障隔离方法在航天器推进系统中的应用

针对航天器推进系统的时变特性以及随机因素给故障隔离带来的困难,提出了基于Z-检验分析和解析冗余关系相结合的半定性故障隔离方法。基于状态空间转换的思想,运用基于系统诊断键合图模型建立的解析冗余关系挖掘系统时不变的结构特征空间信息,并对解析冗余关系残差进行趋势分析获取时不变、具有残差变化方向的故障特征矩阵,针对存在随机因素对残差定性化的影响,利用了Z-检验分析对残差进行定性化获取观察特征,通过观测特征与故障特征的比较进行系统故障隔离。将该方法应用于推进系统的故障隔离中,结果证明了该方法能有效避免获取推进系统时变诊断准则以及来自系统建模和参数测量等随机因素的干扰,提高了推进系统故障隔离的鲁棒性。     

Fragmented forces: The development of the Gambian military

This article provides a detailed look at the history of the Gambia Armed Forces (GAF), a military that has received very little academic attention within the study of African state security forces. It identifies key turning points in the GAF’s history, and highlights the vastly different roles the military played in the state under President Jawara (1965–94) and President Jammeh (1994–2017). Yet, it also highlights important similarities regarding internal patterns within the armed forces and shows the ways in which these continuities may challenge attempts to restructure the security sector. The article draws on archival research and interviews conducted with retired and active duty Gambian military personnel, government officials, and Gambian scholars.     

部队作战效能综合评估法

高技术条件下局部战争的显著特点是参战单位多、对抗关系复杂、战争不确定因素增加,如何在此情况下客观评估部队的作战效能是作战研究领域一个重点和难点。通过综合运用定性分析法、网络分析法、战斗效能指数法、作战模拟及系统动力学等多种方法和理论,建立了一种可对部队作战效能进行评估的综合评估法。并以高技术条件下岛上进攻作战中装甲团的作战效能评估为例,详细介绍了该方法的实施过程,认为该综合评估法是行之有效的。     

Rethinking military behavior during the Arab Spring

Why did some Arab militaries remain loyal to authoritarian rulers amid mass uprisings during the Arab Spring while others defected to the opposition? One popular explanation shows this variation with reference to the degree of military institutionalization: institutionalized militaries defected, while patrimonial militaries remained loyal. This article argues that the institutionalization hypothesis does not provide a complete account of the mechanisms through which the degree of military institutionalization leads to either defection or continued loyalty. This shortcoming stems from the fact that scholars have treated military institutionalization as a catch-all concept for three distinct variables: ethnic stacking of the military, patronage distribution, and organizational factionalization. Examining the interaction between these variables highlights the mechanisms through which military defection occurs, and therefore that disaggregating institutionalization into its component parts provides a more complete explanation of military behavior during the Arab Spring.     

India–Africa defence cooperation against the backdrop of the ‘Make in India’ initiative

Although India is a major importer of defence equipment, it has also been manufacturing defence equipment for some of its needs. The Government of India’s ambitious ‘Make in India’ initiative for the defence sector aims to achieve self reliance in defence equipment production. This essay explores the opportunities for bilateral arms trade between India and Africa, as a new facet of India-Africa defence cooperation. It covers India’s arms export policy, policy reforms in India’s defence sector, and the opportunities for Indian and African defence markets.     

谈语境对语篇的影响

语言作为人类的交际工具,总是为一定的交际目的在不同的交际场合使用。人们运用语言这一工具进行社会交际总是受到现实环境的支配与影响。任何语言的使用都有语境,语篇作为言语交际中传递信息的载体,同样也离不开语境。语境体现为语篇的语言选择,而语篇的语言选择又建构了语境。语境是交际双方共同的认知前提。对于语境的研究和分析,有助于更加准确地研究和分析基于这个语境产生的语篇。