SLOWING DOWN TO KEEP THE LEAD IN MILITARY TECHNOLOGY

We develop a model of military technology competition among states. States can choose to introduce new military technology, mimic rivals’ level of technology, or withdraw from the contest. States can choose to implement any level of technology within their current feasible technologies. We find that states with significant technological leads should sometimes withhold new technologies, only strategically releasing them to trump rivals’ efforts. We develop the model by refining Admiral Jackie Fisher’s roughly articulated concept of ‘plunging’. We then use this refined argument to reanalyze the case of naval rivalries among European powers between the Crimean War and the First World War. Finally, we conclude by discussing the model’s implications for current US military force structure planning.     

THE ACRS EXPERIENCE AND ITS RELEVANCE TO THE WMDFZ CONFERENCE

This article examines the arms control logic that was applied to the only regional arms control talks that have taken place in the Middle East to date: the Arms Control and Regional Security (ACRS) working group that was part of the multilateral track of the Madrid peace process in the early 1990s. It highlights both the successes and major constraints of the ACRS talks in an effort to assess what might be relevant to the weapons of mass destruction-free zone conference proposed for later this year. In addition to the basic arms control dilemmas that will continue to challenge this conference—as they did ACRS—the article suggests that current conditions in the Middle East are even less conducive to regional dialogue than they were in the earlier period, due to the internal upheavals in several key Arab states, and the specific challenge of Iran's move to develop a military nuclear capability.     

NATO Territorial Ballistic Missile Defense and its Implications for Arms Control

ABSTRACT

Since 2002, NATO's territorial missile defense has evoked continuous debates between NATO states and the Russian Federation. Thirteen years have passed without reaching a common denominator. This article provides a comprehensive overview of the historical background of the debate and the technical details of the missile defense system, highlighting its shortcomings and the state of its deployment process. It also contrasts the military-technical and political arguments of both sides, before addressing the applicable norms of international law to highlight violations and the effect of this noncompliance on existing arms control measures.     

轻武器及其未来发展趋势

全面分析了轻武器在未来战争中的地位和作用 ,总结了轻武器现装备的主要特点 ,归纳了近二十年来在轻武器装备领域的主要技术成果 ,提出了轻武器未来发展趋势。     

Statistical Analysis as an Adjunct to Historical Research: Identification of the Likely Manufacturers of British Pattern 1907 Bayonets Supplied by the Birmingham Small Arms Company to the Siamese Government in 1920

In 1920, the Birmingham Small Arms Company supplied 10,000 Pattern 1907 bayonets to the government of Siam to accompany an order for rifles. The original maker of these bayonets was unknown, but historical research indicates that the Wilkinson Sword Co. Ltd. was a primary maker. The weights of some surviving Pattern 1907 bayonets, including twelve bayonets from the 10,000 described above, produced by the six makers in the UK before and during the Great War (1914–1918) period were available. A statistical analysis of the data was performed to compare with the historical research. The results strongly supported that the Wilkinson Sword Co. Ltd. was a primary maker. They were also sufficient to exclude from this batch of twelve bayonets the Royal Small Arms Factory (Enfield) and Vickers Ltd. as manufacturers. The statistical evidence for the presence of bayonets made by J.A. Chapman Ltd., R. Mole & Sons and Sanderson Bros. was weaker than that for the Wilkinson Sword Co. Ltd., but was nevertheless supportive of that hypothesis. Overall, the analysis was consistent with the supply to Siam of commingled bayonets from British government stores. It was noted that the bayonets for the Siam contract fell into a relatively narrow weight range, but the reason for this could not be determined.     

二元翼型跨音速非定常压力计算

本文描述了用Ｅ—Ｏ型的ＡＤＩ隐式差分格式计算二维、无粘、定常与非定常低频小扰动跨音速流的方法。应用附加时间导数项的物面、尾涡面的边界条件及压力系数表达式和远场无反射边界条件,计算翼型绕其１／４弦长处轴作正弦俯仰振动时,翼面上的非定常压力分布。所得结果与文献［１］比较,具有较好的一致性。     

致命性自主武器系统军备控制态势分析

致命性自主武器系统是指不需要人类操作员干涉,能够自主选择目标并进行攻击的一类武器系统,\"平台无人、自主运行、致命攻击\"是其主要特征。随着人工智能技术的快速发展,完全自主的致命性武器系统日益受到国际社会的关注,并开始成为国际军备控制问题的焦点。本文主要从技术的视角探讨致命性自主武器系统的军备控制问题。首先,介绍致命性自主武器系统的定义、发展动因以及军控问题的由来;其次,针对国际人道法提出的区分原则、比例原则、预防原则,分析当前自主武器系统在自主目标识别、确认和攻击环节存在的技术问题;最后,分析美国、俄罗斯、欧盟等世界主要国家和地区的军控态度,并探讨我国自主武器系统发展的策略建议。     

人工智能在军备控制领域的争议与挑战

随着人工智能技术的发展,当前国际社会对管控以\"杀手机器人\"为代表的致命性自主武器系统的呼声日益强烈,对于这类武器系统可能在未来引发伦理和安全危机的担忧逐渐增多.针对致命性自主武器,最严格的观点是全面禁止其研发和使用,以防止\"杀手机器人\"的出现;较宽松的观点是限制其使用、转让、扩散和购买;介于两者之间的观点是暂停其研发或...