NUCLEAR REDUCTIONS AND MIDDLE EAST STABILITY

The United States faces a series of strategic and policy conundrums as it attempts to promote strategic stability in the Persian Gulf and the wider Middle East. This article examines the relationship between a reduced US nuclear arsenal and strategic stability in the Persian Gulf and the Middle East. It argues that a series of interrelated political and military factors play a much more significant role in regional security and stability than the US strategic arsenal, which has never, with a few extraordinary exceptions, played a direct role in maintaining regional security. The United States has constructed a system of regional stability based on conventional deterrence and defense that has seen it forward base forces at various installations in the region in combination with efforts to arm, train, and equip host-nation militaries. Nuclear weapons have never played a prominent role in this regional system. Evidence presented in this article suggests that there is no compelling reason for the United States to abandon and/or modify the defensive system of conventional deterrence and defense by adding nuclear-backed guarantees to the mix.     

The Management of Pakistan's Nuclear Arsenal

Pakistan, the fastest growing nuclear weapon state in the world, has established over the last decade a nuclear management system it holds to be “foolproof.” Despite the explosion of radical groups challenging the writ of the state, it dismisses concerns by critics that its nuclear weapons are not safe and secure as “preposterous” and an attempt to “malign” the state. This article examines Pakistan's nuclear management system in four functional areas: command-and-control, physical security, nuclear surety, and doctrine. It describes what is publicly known in each area, identifies areas of omission and inadequacy in each one, and examines several premises of the nuclear program the author considers to be unfounded. Comparing these deficiencies in Pakistan's nuclear management system to the current problems plaguing the US nuclear management system, the author concludes that complacency and unfounded confidence in the efficacy of such programs, if not addressed and corrected, could lead to a future nuclear catastrophe in South Asia.     

地缘政治视角下的中巴军事技术合作

中国和巴基斯坦是社会制度和意识形态完全不同的两个国家,但是自1951年正式建立外交关系的50多年来,两国之间发展起来的睦邻友好＂全天候和全方位＂的国家关系堪称世界上双边关系的典范。中巴友好关系的存在有力的支撑了南亚地缘政治格局的安全与稳定,其中,中巴军事技术合作又是这一友好关系中极为重要的一个侧面。通过分析中巴军事技术合作的背景、历史和现状,可以有效的了解南亚地缘政治格局的复杂性以及我国在其中的核心战略利益所在。文章分为三个部分：第一部分分析中巴友好的地缘政治因素和历史原因;第二部分分析中巴军事技术合作的历史、现状以及其在中巴关系起到的重要作用;第三部分在前几部分的基础上,对中巴军事技术合作中存在的一些不足之处提出看法并对未来进行展望。     

新疆南疆欠发达地区高等教育大众化的后发优势

在我国高等教育“大众化”的趋势下,新疆南疆欠发达地区高等教育面临加快发展的重要历史机遇,其大众化的后发优势主要为新疆南疆资源优势的转化、经济发展环境的关联性、各级政府明确的发展目标和高等教育大众化多元发展趋势。新疆南疆欠发达地区应充分发挥高等教育大众化的后发优势,在学习和借鉴先发地区经验的同时,自主创新,用较快的速度缩短与先发地区的差距,与之协调发展。     

自导作用距离影响因素的分析

本文以声纳方程为核心,探讨诸参数对鱼雷自导作用距离的影响,着重分析 SL,GL,DT 以及鱼雷自噪声 NL 与自导作用距离的关系,并且提出了降低鱼雷自噪声的几种途径。     

The economic impact of peacekeeping. Evidence from South Sudan

This paper investigates the effect of the deployment of United Nations Blue Helmets on economic activity in South Sudan with a special focus on agricultural production. Since UN troops are predicted to improve security, in particular, we expect a positive relationship between deployment of UN blue Helmets and cereal production. We test our hypothesis using an original data-set including all the 78 South Sudanese counties over the period 2009–2011. We control for the non-random assignment of UN troops through an Instrumental Variables approach. Our empirical results show that a 10% increase in the size of the troop allows the production of additional 600 tonnes.     

近期美国海军南海地区活动态势分析

随着南海地区力量结构和美对华战略的转变,南海地区成为中美战略博弈的焦点。为围堵遏制中国的崛起,美国针对中国在南海实施了一系列海上挑衅行为。美国海军作为美国军事干预的主要力量,从兵力部署、演习演训、“航行自由”行动等着手,积极拉拢域内外盟友,展开并强化了在南海地区的军事活动。这些军事活动表现出极强的针对性和实战性,致使中美海上摩擦和竞争加剧。未来,美国为维护主导的全球秩序,将进一步提升美国海军在南海地区的威慑力。美国海军会借助并增加域内盟友的军事力量,继续维持高强度的装备平台活动及“航行自由”行动,推动海上力量合作。     

Deterrence of nuclear terrorism in the context of South Asia

Stability among the great powers during the Cold War is widely theorized in terms of nuclear deterrence. Rationality of States and their preference for survival are the basis of nuclear deterrence. The rationality of non-state terrorist groups is different from that of nation-states. Even though they are also rational actors with their own hierarchy of preferences, survival may not be their ultimate goal. Deterrence of nuclear terrorism is therefore different from deterrence against states. South Asia is more vulnerable to nuclear terrorism than any other region of the world for many reasons. This article analyzes the possibility of nuclear terrorism and the ways of deterrence against it in the context of South Asia.     

A Reversal of Fortunes? Extended Deterrence and Assurance in Europe and East Asia1

ABSTRACT

The extended deterrence relationships between the United States and its allies in Europe and East Asia have been critical to regional and global security and stability, as well as to nonproliferation efforts, since the late 1950s. These relationships developed in different regional contexts, and reflect differing cultural, political and military realities in the US allies and their relations with the United States. Although extended deterrence and assurance relations have very different histories, and have to some extent been controversial through the years, there has been a rethinking of these relations in recent years. Many Europeans face a diminished threat situation as well as economic and political pressures on the maintenance of extended deterrence, and are looking at the East Asian relationships, which do not involve forward deployed forces as more attractive than NATO’s risk-and-burden-sharing concepts involving the US nuclear forces deployed in Europe. On the other hand, the East Asian allies are looking favorably at NATO nuclear consultations, and in the case of South Korea, renewed US nuclear deployments (which were ended in 1991), to meet increased security concerns posed by a nuclear North Korea and more assertive China. This paper explores the history of current relationships and the changes that have led the allies to view those of others as more suitable for meeting their current needs.     

群体可拓层次分析法在C~4ISR系统效能指标赋权中的应用

指标赋权是C4ISR系统效能评估的重要环节,提出了一种新的指标赋权方法——群体可拓层次分析法(GEAHP),较好地解决了指标赋权过程中多专家意见集结的问题,以及判断矩阵的合理构建和一致性检验问题。描述了GEAHP的基本过程,并通过实例对其正确性进行了验证。