GLOBALIZING REAGAN'S INF TREATY

When it was concluded more than a quarter century ago, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union was hailed as a disarmament watershed, eliminating entire classes of nuclear missiles from the arsenals of the arms-racing Cold War superpowers. Over the intervening decades, there have been repeated calls to convert this legacy treaty into a new international norm against nuclear and missile proliferation by broadening it into a global prohibition on ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. Indeed, variations on this proposal have been knocking around for so long and with so little success that the entire concept has come to be dismissed by many knowledgeable insiders as something of a farce. Looking beyond its inauspicious pedigree, however, this viewpoint suggests that the time is opportune for Washington to give the idea a fresh look. Drawing on a detailed review of the history of “Global INF” and an analysis of the contemporary context, the author recommends that the Obama administration consider a simple declaratory approach that promises modest initial benefits, avoids previous and foreseeable pitfalls, and plausibly lays a solid foundation for achieving significant long-term progress.     

武警部队抢险救灾法律制度的完善

近年来,我国频繁发生历史罕见的自然灾害。在抢险救灾中,武警部队已成为一支重要的突击力量。按照习主席关于“武警部队要勇于承担抢险救灾等急难险重任务”的重要指示,武警法律工作者必须适应武警部队职能拓展的需要,在借鉴国外成功经验的基础上,尽快完善武警部队抢险救灾应急法律制度,切实提高部队执行抢险救灾任务的能力。     

基于抽象隐马尔可夫模型的CGF路径规划识别

路径规划识别是一种以位置信息为输入的在线识别。为了使CGF能在仿真中识别对手的路径和终点目标,在分析路径规划层次的基础上引入了抽象隐马尔可夫模型的识别框架。针对标准模型在对手更改终点目标和自上而下规划时无法识别的问题,提出了一种顶层策略可变的抽象隐马尔可夫模型。为模型的顶层策略增加初始分布和策略终止变量,更改了策略终止变量间的依赖关系,使下层策略能被强制终止。给出了改进后DBN结构,并通过推导条件概率更新和RB变量抽样流程实现了模型的近似推理。仿真实验表明,改进模型能准确识别给定环境下的各类典型航迹,不仅在终点目标不变时能较好地维持标准模型的识别准确率,在提供足够的观测数据后还能很好地解决变目标识别问题。     

Spies,advisors, and grunts: Film portrayals of counterinsurgency in Vietnam

Vietnam was a complex conflict, which historians and political scientists have struggled to understand. Some of the bitterest disputes in the historiography revolve around the US approach to counterinsurgency in Vietnam. Many different facets of the war have received the attention of filmmakers, and an examination of their work suggests new ways of thinking about the conflict. This article considers film portrayals of three phases of the Vietnam War – firstly, the early period of ‘political action’, then the advisory period, and finally the Americanization of the war after 1965. It suggests that by examining the experiences of participants in each of these phases, Vietnam War cinema helps to illustrate the problems that faced various American approaches to counterinsurgency in the conflict. Combined with the importance of films in determining popular perceptions of both historical conflicts and counterinsurgency in general, it suggests that they are worthy subjects of study and critique.     

弘扬伟大建党精神奋进世界一流征程

以“坚持真理、坚守理想,践行初心、担当使命,不怕牺牲、英勇斗争,对党忠诚、不负人民”为内涵的伟大建党精神,是中国共产党的精神之源。这一精神内涵丰富、意境深远,具有鲜明的理论特征和时代价值,不仅指导了过去一百年中国共产党人带领全中国人民推进革命、建设、改革的伟大实践,更是对中华民族实现第二个百年奋斗目标具有深远的指导意义。只有深刻认识和把握伟大建党精神的科学内涵,才能战胜前进道路上的一切艰难险阻,继续谦虚谨慎、戒骄戒躁,继续艰苦奋斗、锐意进取,锲而不舍把建设世界一流军队的伟大事业推向新征程。     

潜艇CGF规避反潜航空兵行为建模

对战场态势的不完全观测是潜艇作战的重要特点,充分利用不完全观测信息,提高潜艇对抗决策的合理性是设计潜艇CGF的核心问题。针对潜艇作战特点,提出了潜艇自防御行为模型框架,并利用多Agent不确定场景建模技术,建立了基于POMDP的规避反潜航空兵行为模型,最后进行了仿真验证。结果表明,该模型具有较强的可行性。     

Between a rock and a hard place: Europe in a post-INF world

The end of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has the potential to plunge Europe and NATO into deep crisis. Russia’s continued violation coupled with the Donald J. Trump administration’s desire to balance against Moscow and Beijing could force a new missile debate on Europeans. Even though Washington is trying to assuage its allies, the specter of another round of INF missile deployments to Europe is not unrealistic. Meanwhile, NATO’s European members face a dilemma. Some want NATO to resolutely push back against Russia. Others want to avoid a new deployment debate, at almost all costs. The Kremlin will use these cleavages to weaken NATO. If not carefully handled, NATO’s response to the Russian missile buildup could lead to domestic turmoil in a number of European states and render the alliance ineffective for a prolonged period. Europeans need to act now and voice their preferences in the military and diplomatic domains. A number of different military options are available, below the level of deploying new INF missiles in Europe. However, Europeans need to consider trade-offs regarding crisis and arms-race stability. At the same time, it will be up to European capitals to conceptualize a new arms-control framework for the post-INF world, one that takes into account today’s geopolitical realities and the entanglement of modern conventional and nuclear forces. Given the Trump administration’s loathing of arms control, concepts of mutual restraint may well have to wait for the next US administration. In any case, that should not stop Europeans from taking on more responsibility for their own security.     

《人民武装警察法》若干问题评析

2009年4月,第十一届全国人大常委会第八次会议初次审议并向社会公布了《人民武装警察法（草案）》。同年8月27日,第十一届全国人大常委会第十次会议通过了该法。《人民武装警察法》的颁布施行,对于武警部队法制建设无疑具有“里程碑”式的意义。但是,不可否认,《人民武装警察法》并非尽善尽美,仍然存在着进一步需要完善之处。就其中的立法依据、调整范围、与其他法律规范的衔接、授权立法以及法律责任的设定等问题加以评析。     

武警部队处置突发事件的职能与相关法律制度初探

武警部队是处置突发事件的重要力量,其处置突发事件的职能具有特殊性。结合《中华人民共和国突发事件应对法》（简称《突发事件应对法》）和《中华人民共和国人民武装警察法》（简称《人民武装警察法》）等相关法律、法规,介绍了武警部队处置突发事件的法律制度现状,阐述了当前处置突发事件法律制度存在的一般问题和武警部队处置突发事件的立法现状,并提出完善我国突发事件应急法律体系的建议。