基于敌后侦察与诱骗博弈的远程火力打击战法*

对敌后侦察反军事诱骗的远程火力打击战法的定量分析是战役研究中尚未解决的关键问题之一,根据信息作战原理,运用仿真和统计学分析的混合方法,建立基于概率的二人非零和(TPNZS)非合作博弈模型,设计基于侦察与诱骗博弈的远程火力打击战法,定量分析我方的敌后侦察和敌方的军事诱骗对远程信息与火力联合打击能力的影响,并对一个典型实例的初步试验及分析结果表明:与敌后侦察和军事诱骗有关的正确识别目标和错误识别目标的概率以及远程火力命中目标的概率是评估远程信息与火力联合打击能力的关键,而对评估结果进行博弈分析则是远程火力打击战法设计的关键,用识别正确目标和错误目标能力以及远程火力命中目标能力描述的基于敌后侦察与诱骗博弈的远程火力最优打击战法为Δ*=(0,Δ2*,1-Δ2*)=(0.0000,0.7727,0.2273),被打击方对远程火力打击的最优战法为π*=(π1*,0,1-π1*)=(0.8511,0.0000,0.1489)。     

“It would be impossible to estimate the value of these works...” Mass Production at Springfield Armory during the American Civil War

The U.S. Armory in Springfield, Massachusetts, rarely appears in Civil War histories except perhaps as an unexplained statistical wonder. By late 1863, the Armory was the largest single supplier of rifles to Union forces. Springfield Armory workers out-produced over thirty American contractors, making more Army rifles at less cost while providing contractors with gauges, inspectors, and models, even though there were significant wartime private-sector mechanical innovations. This article identifies and explains the factors in the Armory’s success, provides context on contemporary American arms production and rifle models, and argues that the Armory’s methods and performance were among the first if not the first example of mass production in American small arms manufacture. The relative brevity of the Civil War episode, and the fact that it was not repeated in any comparable way at the Armory until World War II, has obscured its significance in American manufacturing history.     

An exact network flow formulation for cell‐based evacuation in urban areas

In the literature two common macroscopic evacuation planning approaches exist: The dynamic network flow approach and the Cell–Transmission–Based approach. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages. Many efficient solution approaches for the dynamic network flow approach exist so that realistic problem instances can be considered. However, the consideration of (more) realistic aspects (eg, density dependent travel times) results in non‐linear model formulations. The Cell‐Transmission‐Based approach on the other hand considers realistic traffic phenomena like shock waves and traffic congestion, but this approach leads to long computational times for realistic problem instances. In this article, we combine the advantages of both approaches: We consider a Cell‐Transmission‐Based Evacuation Planning Model (CTEPM) and present a network flow formulation that is equivalent to the cell‐based model. Thus, the computational costs of the CTEPM are enormously reduced due to the reformulation and the detailed representation of the traffic flow dynamics is maintained. We investigate the impacts of various evacuation scenario parameters on the evacuation performance and on the computational times in a computational study including 90 realistic instances.     

科学管理、精益管理与精确作战工程保障研究

设计是作战行动筹划的重要步骤,精确工程保障需要对工程保障行动进行精密的设计和精确管理与控制。科学管理采用科学实验的方法,通过劳动方法标准化和差别计件工资制度,有效提高了工作效率,其基本原理经过百余年的实际检验,被证明是一个成熟有效的管理方法。借鉴科学管理理论,需要对工程保障行动进行动作研究,进而研究工程保障行动的作业标准,以期提高其保障效率。精益管理是在科学管理在新的历史时期的发展与改进,它使用了准时制、零库存、均衡生产、持续改进等先进的管理理念和六西格玛管理、成组技术等先进技术,为基于信息系统体系作战的工程保障能力生成提供了有益的借鉴,可加深我们对精确工程保障的理解,促进精确工程保障研究的可操作性。     

中国近现代心理战历史沿革研究

信息技术的飞速发展和广泛运用为心理战的实施开辟了新的更加广阔的空间。当前,拓展深化军事斗争准备和完成多样化军事任务对军队心理战建设提出了新的任务和要求。研究中国近现代心理战的历史沿革发展,特别是辛亥革命时期、土地革命时期、抗日战争时期、解放战争时期、抗美援朝时期中心理战的演变过程,总结经验教训,对于提高信息时代军队心理作战能力有重要启示作用。     

联合国维和警察防暴队甄选考试改革对维和培训的影响及对策

2012年9月颁布的《联合国维和警察防暴队行动能力评估标准作业程序》对联合国防暴队甄选及行动能力评估的组织、实施程序、考查标准等方面都进行了较大的调整。从联合国维和警察防暴队甄选标准作业程序的改革入手,以考试为突破口和着眼点,研究程序的改革对维和警察防暴队培训的影响,制定应对策略,以时维和培训工作具有指导作用和借鉴意义。     

把人文精神融入军队思想政治教育中

实现军队思想政治教育人文关怀,是改进军队思想政治教育和促进我军现代化建设的重要任务。把人文关怀融入思想政治教育,使军队思想政治教育迈向更高层次,更加科学化。以马克思主义的人文精神及其内涵为基点,提出把人文精神融入军队思想政治教育中,在阐释军队思想政治教育实践人文关怀的路径上,实现官兵的个人发展和军队建设的和谐统一。     

流行文化对新疆高校大学生价值观影响的结构维度及因素分析

本文采取实证分析方法,通过对流行文化对新疆高校大学生价值观的影响进行问卷调查,得出流行文化对大学生价值观影响的结构维度包括政治价值观、生活价值观、自我价值观和婚恋价值观。在流行文化对大学生价值观的影响因素方面,性别、民族、对流行文化的了解程度、您在上大学前在什么类型的学校就读等影响显著。     

Initiating insurgencies abroad: French plans to ‘chouannise’ Britain and Ireland, 1793–1798

Secret French plans to launch guerrilla-style raids on the British Isles devised in the spring of 1796 were referred to as ‘chouanneries’. The name and concept behind these small-war operations were modelled on the irregular tactics used by the Chouan rebels in the Vendée, which the French state army had brutally quashed, but some wished to transfer into their institutional practice. Part of France's ongoing military strategy in the war against Britain, which included fomenting insurrection in Ireland, these irregular operations were to be manned partially by pardoned deserters and released convicts and prisoners of war. Of these, only Tate's brief invasion of Wales in 1797 was realised, but the surviving plans provide insightful historical lessons into an Anglophobic mindset shared by a small network of practitioners and policy deciders on the effectiveness of such shock and awe tactics. Largely motivated by the desire to take revenge for Britain's support of counter-revolutionaries in the Vendée, these plans could more aptly be referred to as counter-‘chouanneries’.     

利用时间窗权重进行航迹关联

提出一种利用传感器测量数据的时间窗权重进行航迹关联的方法,将目标运动状态的多维向量(如距离、方位角、俯仰角等)分解为多个一维状态标量;根据每个状态标量与时间的关系,提取两条航迹的共同测量时间区间,将其划分为若干个时间窗,计算对应时间窗内的权重;根据时间窗权重差计算每一个状态标量的航迹相似度;应用DS理论或Bayes理论进行航迹关联决策。