Alternatives for defense in the Post‐Soviet World: A guide for economists to the U.S. debate

The defense establishments of all major powers are changing to reflect changes in the foundations of national security strategy and resource allocation. The authors believe economists should play an active role in formulating these changes and offer an orientation to the U.S. debate, presenting three major alternatives: the “Base Force” (Bush Administration), Mr. Aspin's Force “C,” and the “Low” Alternative (Prof. Kaufmann and Dr. Steinbruner). These alternatives are compared using first‐order measures of capabilities, budgets and risk. Budgetary estimates are based on newly‐developed analytical tools.     

CONFLICT RESOLUTION PROCESSES,UNCERTAINTY AND INVESTMENT DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FOR THE BASQUE COUNTRY

The Junior Reserve Officers’ Training Corps is a high school program that combines classroom teaching with extracurricular activities. The program is located primarily in inner city schools and serves at‐risk students. Its goals are multidimensional and include military preparation and improving academic achievement. Using High School and Beyond data we find that the program’s effects depend on the timing and intensity of involvement. Test scores, graduation rates, and enlistments are higher for students who participate early in high school and for those who persist in the program. Conversely, we find few effects for students participating in the last two years of high school.     

COSO框架体系在部队财务风险评估中的应用

COSO框架体系是国际普遍认同的内部控制体系,各行各业纷纷以此为依据构建适合自己的内部控制体系,成为各单位财务风险管理的重要基础依据。结合COSO框架尝试从内部环境、目标设定与事项识别、信息与交流、控制活动、监督等方面对部队财务风险评估指标体系进行设计。     

维和警察警务风险管理刍议

由于联合国维和任务区条件艰苦,环境危险,维和警察在安全方面存在着很多风险和隐患。如何发现并排除隐患,最大限度地保证维和警察的安全,是维和警察管理部门亟待解决的问题。从维和警察警务风险管理概念入手,探讨维和警察警务风险管理计划、风险识别和评估、风险处理和效果评价等,以期对维和警察管理部门的警务风险管理实践起到辅助作用。     

超高层建筑火灾防控对策探讨

随着我国经济建设的迅猛发展,超高层建筑不断涌现,但是超高层建筑火灾案例反映出其消防安全问题不容乐观,因此,加强超高层建筑的消防安全管理,提高灭火救援能力,是当前消防部队必须解决的重大课题.分析了超高层建筑特有的火灾风险,从主动预防和有效救援两个层面,探讨了超高层建筑火灾预防对策与灭火救援对策,以提高防控超高层建筑火灾的能力,保护人民生命财产安全.     

基于模糊综合评价法的公众聚集场所火灾风险评估

利用模糊综合评价方法,对某公众聚集场所进行火灾风险评估,建立了风险评价的指标体系并确立了各指标的权重值,对建筑起火的可能性、火灾损失的严重程度以及火灾综合风险进行了分析,最终从降低火灾发生可能性以及降低危害后果严重程度两方面,提出了该公众聚集场所的火灾风险控制措施,从而为此类场所的火灾隐患定性和消防监督管理提供依据。     

某高校新区周边区域火灾危险及对策探析

降低高校新区周边区域的火灾风险是提高高校新区消防安全水平的重要方面。在分析高校新区周边区域火灾特点的基础上,总结了在消防安全方面存在的问题,如村镇消防规划滞后、基础设施匮乏、消防安全管理体系不健全、管理方法单一等。从完善村镇规划、加强基础设施建设、健全消防安全管理体系、深化消防安全管理创新等方面提出了高校新区周边区域消防安全管理的对策。     

Can Smart Defense work? A suggested approach to increasing risk- and burden-sharing within NATO

“Smart Defense” is NATO's new approach to risk- and burden-sharing, which has been a chronic problem within the alliance since the 1950s. Numerous solutions have been proposed, but initiatives resulting in more equitable burden-sharing have never been fully implemented. There are two driving forces influencing a county's willingness to support such initiatives – the economic theory of alliances and the risks posed by the implementation of capability sharing. The authors examine each of these and propose that rather than aiming for group consensus on the production of capabilities, NATO should focus on interoperability through support functions. This approach provides the most likely solution for connecting the forces, doctrine, procedures, standards and other factors of joint capability production such that country leaders find the risks of doing so to be politically and militarily acceptable.     

An enterprise portfolio approach for defence capability planning

Capability-based planning (CBP) is considered by many defence organisations to be the best practice for enterprise-level planning, analysis and management. This approach, loosely based around investment portfolio theory, is premised on balancing the cost, benefit and risk of capability options across the defence enterprise. However a number of authors have recently noted limitations of its current applications. The authors propose a more general, insurance-based approach, which can support the evolutionary improvement of the current CBP approach. This approach is implemented as hedging-based planning and aims to better reflect the enterprise nature of defence organisations, capturing both force structure and force generation aspects of military systems.