Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making: Underexposed issues,advancements, and ways forward

How much mileage can we get out of prospect theory to explain foreign policy decision-making? To answer this question, we first argue that risk as outcome uncertainty is the appropriate definition in prospect-theoretical applications. Then, we indicate that probability weighting—a crucial component of prospect theory—is typically ignored in such applications. We argue why this is problematic and suggest how to move forward. Next, we discuss how to establish the reference point in the face of outcomes in multiple dimensions, as is typically the case in foreign policy decision-making. Finally, we discuss what we have learnt regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions and the differences across individuals in the theory’s applicability. Overall, our contribution lies in identifying several underexposed or neglected issues (e.g., the definition of risk and probability weighting), in examining the advancements regarding prospect theory’s scope conditions, and in discussing avenues for further research.     

The continuing resonance of the war as risk management perspective for understanding military interventions

In the late 1990s and 2000s, a slew of books and journal articles proposed that a nexus between risk management and warfare was emerging. This article argues that risk management ideas continue to shape recent campaigns against Libya, Islamic State, Syria, and the war on terror from Niger, Yemen to Somalia. It uses existing literature on risk and warfare to examine four key aspects of contemporary interventions. First, the article evaluates the overall strategic context as security concerns shift from terrorism toward renewed great power competition. Second, it re-assesses the risk calculus for military action through the language and grammar of risk invoked by politicians. Third and fourth, it addresses the continuing reliance on air power and the managerial ethos of military operations as important features of war as risk management.     

加强装备竞争性采购廉政风险防控的思考

装备竞争性采购是统筹经济发展和国防建设的重要抓手,加强风险管理是提升装备竞争性采购总体效益的重要保障.从当前纪检态势看,装备竞争性采购是廉政风险集中的重点领域.本文系统梳理了思想道德、制度机制、岗位职责及社会环境等装备竞争性采购过程中可能遇到的廉政风险类型,阐述了竞争性采购项目提出环节、竞争性采购信息发布环节、候选装备...     

基于灰色关联分析的人员密集场所消防安全评价

近年来,包括商场在内的公众聚集场所的火灾以其多发性和严重性引起人们越来越多的关注。为了控制和防范此类火灾的发生,减少其对人民和社会的威胁,对此类场所进行更为准确、高效的火灾风险评估十分必要。在模糊综合评价方法的基础上,建立了公众聚集场所的消防安全评价模型,采用灰色关联分析确定各因素的权重,并应用所建立的评价模型对某商场进行了实际评估。结果表明此方法具有很好的可行性与高效性。     

烟花爆竹存放使用中的消防安全问题研究

根据烟花爆竹独有的组成成分的火灾危险性,从烟花爆竹存放场所的硬件条件、从业人员的素质、消防设施的设置及产品的燃放等方面。分析了烟花爆竹在存放和使用过程中发生火灾爆炸事故的原因,针对性地提出了预防类似火灾爆炸事故的措施。     

电源插座过载火灾危险性分析

利用反复过载实验方法对电源插座分别采用1.5倍、2.0倍、2.5倍、3.0倍额定电流进行过载实验,在过载3次及6次后分别通以额定电流,得出了一系列温度—时间的变化曲线及相关数据,并进行了分析。在实验所得结果的基础上,分析了插座过载引起火灾的原因,并提出了相应的火灾预防对策,这对预防插座过载引起电气火灾,减少火灾损失具有重要意义。     

基于灰色模糊理论的大型医院病房楼火灾风险评价

针对现阶段大型医院病房楼火灾频发,危害严重的现状,提出基于多级灰色模糊理论评价方法,利用此方法对大型医院病房楼火灾风险建立了评价指标体系,并对其进行了实例火灾风险分析。     

当前三合一建筑火灾危险性及对策

针对近期国内＂三合一＂建筑重特大火灾事故多发的现实,分析了＂三合一＂建筑的特点及其火灾隐患成因,从形成一个机制,坚持两个原则,采取六个措施等方面提出了整治＂三合一＂火灾隐患的措施。     

甲乙类厂（库）房火灾风险评估方法研究

随着甲乙类厂（库）房规模、数量及生产（储存）的物质性质多样性的增加,其火灾危险性也大大提高。为了正确评价甲乙类厂（库）房的火灾危险性,以便为业主、保险公司、消防决策者等做出合理决策提供一定的参考,在介绍甲乙类厂（库）房定义的基础上,具体分析了国内外火灾风险评估方法的研究现状和评估方法分类。     

基于风险评估的检测与修理决策模型

研究了基于故障风险的检测与维修策略,运用威布尔比例风险模型建立系统故障率与工作时间及所处状态的关系。分析了两类基于间接状态信息维修决策的风险,建立了系统检测及维修策略的决策树,通过比较检测与不检测情况下的期望费用确定最优的检测间隔。算例表明,所提出的方法能够有效控制系统运行风险,降低系统运行费用。