冷库建筑消防安全隐患及对策探讨

结合工作实际,分析了冷库建筑在消防设计、施工和管理中容易存在的问题,并提出了改进的意见和建议。     

基于Arena仿真的事故网络风险耦合特性分析

风险传递过程中,耦合是导致风险突变的重要原因。为提供风险耦合控制方法,给出风险耦合的形式化描述,采用风险耦合弹性系数对耦合强度进行计算;基于Arena软件对某型非致命武器设计论证阶段的进度风险和费用风险之间的耦合特性进行仿真分析,分别仿真了单指标、多指标在线性和非线性耦合情形下的系统行为,结果表明:全局性的线性耦合和高强度非线性耦合能显著改变系统行为。相关结果为风险耦合控制策略的制定提供了参考。     

数字式鉴相器的相位失真分析

数字式鉴相器的相位失真是导致产生寄生信号和额外相位噪声并使锁相环路不稳定的主要因素之一。锁相环路是通讯设备、测试仪器和雷达中的一个关键部件,因此,减少鉴相器相位失真,对于系统设计是很重要的。利用差分电路,可以有效地减小鉴相器相位失真的影响。     

A critical look at the U.S. deceased‐donor organ procurement and utilization system

The U.S. system for procuring and utilizing deceased‐donor organs for transplantation has been studied and written about in many articles. The purpose of this paper is to examine the interactions between the elements that comprise this system, and point out improvement opportunities that may be affected through operations research/management techniques. The authors demonstrate the need for developing data‐driven and analytic tools. In fact, data is used to generate hypotheses and support claims throughout the paper. The paper also points out the need to fully leverage data that is available to researchers, and to seek data that is currently not deposited in a centralized archive.     

A decomposition algorithm applied to planning the interdiction of stochastic networks

We describe the application of a decomposition based solution method to a class of network interdiction problems. The problem of maximizing the probability of sufficient disruption of the flow of information or goods in a network whose characteristics are not certain is shown to be solved effectively by applying a scenario decomposition method developed by Riis and Schultz [Comput Optim Appl 24 (2003), 267–287]. Computational results demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm and design decisions that result in speed improvements. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005.     

防空作战风险决策分析

防空作战决策活动具有极强的风险性。以决策者面对风险的态度为突破点,通过建立效用曲线并在最大效用原则下对有关决策问题进行优化,在一定程度上可大大降低决策方案的风险性。同时对于防空体系设计也具有一定的参考价值。     

导弹目标识别的最小贝叶斯风险分类器

在贝叶斯决策理论的基础上,通过划分目标特性空间的方法,推导了目标分类问题的总风险表达式.并根据导弹目标识别的特点,建立了导弹目标识别的最小贝叶斯风险模型,给出了基于风险分析的导弹目标识别的具体实现方法.最后,依据导弹目标的实际情况给出了仿真参数并进行了仿真试验,试验结果证明了本方法的有效性.     

新疆高校体育教师风险管理认知研究

本研究以对新疆地区高校体育教师教学风险管理为研究内容,从高校体育教师对风险管理的认知角度进行分析,了解新疆地区高校体育教师对意外伤害风险管理的认知程度,以期发掘受到忽视的意外伤害危险因素,从而找到规避体育教学风险的捷径,更好地服务于体育教学。     

Partial equilibrium in risk‐based production decisions

Characteristically, a small subset of operational problems admit risk neutrality when contingent claims methodology were used in their analysis. That is, for the majority of manufacturing and production problems, operating cash flows are not directly linked to prices of traded assets. However, to the extent that correlations can be estimated, the methodology's applicability to a broader set of operational problems is supported. Our article addresses this issue with the objective of extending the use of contingent claims techniques to a larger set of operational problems. In broad terms, this objective entails a partial equilibrium approach to the problem of valuing uncertain cash flows. To this end, we assume risk aversion and cast our approach within Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model. In this context, we formulate a “generic” production valuation model that is framed as an exercise in stochastic optimal control. The model is versatile in its characterization and can easily be adapted to accommodate a wide‐ranging set of risk‐based operational problems where the underlying sources of uncertainty are not traded. To obtain results, the model is recast as a stochastic dynamic program to be solved numerically. The article addresses a number of fundamental issues in the analysis risk based decision problems in operations. First, in the approach provided, decisions are analyzed under a properly defined risk structure. Second, the process of analysis leads to suitably adjusted probability distributions through which, appropriately discounted expectations are derived. Third, through consolidating existing concepts into a standard and adaptable framework, we extend the applicability of contingent claims methodology to a broader set of operational problems. The approach is advantageous as it obviates the need for exogenously specifying utility functions or discount rates.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

基于Multi-Agent技术的大型航天研发项目风险分析方法

大型航天研发项目对于社会经济发展和国防安全有着重要影响,是国家重大工程中一类较为特殊的项目,而风险分析是大型航天研发项目按计划、高质量、低成本完成的重要保障。通过分析大型航天研发项目的特点、风险因素以及管理过程,结合Multi-Agent以及分布式项目管理的理论和技术,研究和提出了一种新的基于Multi-Agent技术的大型航天研发项目风险分析方法,在此基础上针对具体项目进行了实验仿真,获取了项目的风险水平和关键风险因素,为航天研发项目风险管理与控制提供决策支持。