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11.
计算了一类二次Hamilton微分系统的一阶Mel’nikov函数,通过此方法对该系统在三次多项式扰动下分岔的极限环个数进行了估计。 相似文献
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司将 《武警工程学院学报》2013,(5):44-47
政策的执行是一项系统性工作,其中领导者的综合素质、直达基层的领导骨干、及时高效的反馈机制、牢靠的群众基础以及周密配套的实施方案,都是政策执行的必备要素。讨论政策执行的必备要素,对于政策的执行乃至当前的改革,都具有非常重要的现实意义。 相似文献
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Thomas A. Marks 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2017,28(1):81-118
During the period 1996–2006, the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) waged overt people’s war to seize state power and institute a new order that realized the party’s understanding of ‘New Democracy’ as posited by Mao Tse-tung. Contextual shifts led to a crucial strategic turning point in September 2005, when the Maoists agreed to a united front with estranged legal parties to oust the monarchy and establish a republic. Though touted as acceptance of political reintegration, the move was tactical rather than strategic. The party had no intention of supporting a parliamentary version of democracy and thus, 2006–2016, engaged in a covert effort to seize power. Central to this effort was the paramilitary Young Communist League (YCL), the members of which responded to inflammatory party verbiage and exhortations with attacks upon rival political actors. These attacks, academically and legally, were terrorism and offered a salient illustration of intra-state unrestricted warfare. Ultimately, organizational, national, and regional circumstances caused the main Maoist movement to move decisively away from its covert approach. By that time, however, radical splinters had embraced the use of terrorism against rival political actors, creating a situation whereby local politics is yet a dangerous endeavor in certain areas and at certain times. 相似文献
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The paper explores terrorist choice by applying two well-known theoretical frameworks: stochastic dominance and prospect theory (PT). We analyse each pair of attack methods that can be formed from the RAND-MIPT database and the Global Terrorism Database. Instances of stochastic dominance are identified. PT orderings are computed. Attention is accorded to the identification of ‘trigger points’ and the circumstances that may lead to an increased likelihood that a terrorist will select an attack method associated with a higher expected number of fatalities, i.e. a potentially more damaging attack method. 相似文献
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An attacker‐defender model for analyzing the vulnerability of initial attack in wildfire suppression 下载免费PDF全文
Wildfire managers use initial attack (IA) to control wildfires before they grow large and become difficult to suppress. Although the majority of wildfire incidents are contained by IA, the small percentage of fires that escape IA causes most of the damage. Therefore, planning a successful IA is very important. In this article, we study the vulnerability of IA in wildfire suppression using an attacker‐defender Stackelberg model. The attacker's objective is to coordinate the simultaneous ignition of fires at various points in a landscape to maximize the number of fires that cannot be contained by IA. The defender's objective is to optimally dispatch suppression resources from multiple fire stations located across the landscape to minimize the number of wildfires not contained by IA. We use a decomposition algorithm to solve the model and apply the model on a test case landscape. We also investigate the impact of delay in the response, the fire growth rate, the amount of suppression resources, and the locations of fire stations on the success of IA. 相似文献
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This paper studies load balancing for many-server (N servers) systems. Each server has a buffer of size b ? 1, and can have at most one job in service and b ? 1 jobs in the buffer. The service time of a job follows the Coxian-2 distribution. We focus on steady-state performance of load balancing policies in the heavy traffic regime such that the normalized load of system is λ = 1 ? N?α for 0 < α < 0.5. We identify a set of policies that achieve asymptotic zero waiting. The set of policies include several classical policies such as join-the-shortest-queue (JSQ), join-the-idle-queue (JIQ), idle-one-first (I1F) and power-of-d-choices (Po d) with d = O(Nα log N). The proof of the main result is based on Stein's method and state space collapse. A key technical contribution of this paper is the iterative state space collapse approach that leads to a simple generator approximation when applying Stein's method. 相似文献
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数据质量不仅是统计工作的生命线,也是进行各种定量分析的重要基础.利用科学的方法诊断统计数据质量已成为统计学界探讨和研究的热门内容之一.Benford定律中第一位数字的分布规律应该满足对数分布,当数据出现质量缺陷或人为修饰后该样本数据将与Benford定律的期望频率出现偏差.将Benford定律引入到消防统计数据进行质量分析,运用Pearson相关系数对《中国消防年鉴》(2012)公布的消防统计数据进行实证分析,结果表明:统计数据质量较高. 相似文献