陆军战斗决心方案评估方法研究

战斗决心方案评估是陆军指挥员及指挥机关组织战斗过程中的一项重要工作。研究评估方法为陆军部队行动选择战斗决心方案提供依据。对战斗决心方案的评估,根据决心方案的战术手段、作战目标选择、战斗部署等三项主要内容,建立评估指标体系和评估数学模型,得出综合评估结果。该量化分析的评估方法提高了决策的精确性。     

航空随队支援干扰掩护区仿真建模研究

干扰暴露区及干扰扇面等传统评估指标对静态干扰部署可以进行有效评估分析,对机动干扰掩护难以进行准确描述分析。为有效评估电子对抗航空兵随队支援干扰能力,以及准确进行航空兵突防编队配置及干扰力量需求分析,引入了干扰掩护区的概念,并建立相关模型进行仿真计算,得出3条电子对抗随队支援航空兵突防的运用启示。     

高功率微波弹的杀伤效果分析与仿真

根据高功率微波弹微波脉冲的攻击入射角,给出了高功率微波弹杀伤区域模型,结合高功率微波损坏和干扰电子元器件的能量阈值,提出了高功率微波弹对目标的失效区、干扰区及安全区的概念,并建立相应的数学模型进行了仿真分析,为高功率微波弹攻击参数的设定及实际的作战运用提供了理论依据。     

考虑节点自修复能力的C2关系网络毁伤特性研究

针对指挥控制关系网络受到攻击时节点及网络毁伤程度的量化评价问题,首先形式化定义了攻击强度和节点自修复能力函数,在此基础上,分别给出了网络中节点无自修复能力和自修复能力随时间变化时的节点毁伤模型。最后通过仿真计算,得到了节点的失效过程描述以及随机攻击和选择性攻击两种不同攻击目标选择方式下网络效率随攻击时间的变化关系。     

Optimal resource allocation and redistribution strategy in military conflicts with Lanchester square law attrition

We address the problem of optimal decision‐making in conflicts based on Lanchester square law attrition model where a defending force needs to be partitioned optimally, and allocated to two different attacking forces of differing strengths and capabilities. We consider a resource allocation scheme called the Time Zero Allocation with Redistribution (TZAR) strategy, where allocation is followed by redistribution of defending forces, on the occurrence of certain decisive events. Unlike previous work on Lanchester attrition model based tactical decision‐making, which propose time sequential tactics through an optimal control approach, the present article focuses on obtaining simpler resource allocation tactics based on a static optimization framework, and demonstrates that the results obtained are similar to those obtained by the more complex dynamic optimal control solution. Complete solution for this strategy is obtained for optimal partitioning of resources of the defending forces. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

基于Krsul分类法与联邦模型的脆弱性数据库系统

在分析脆弱性数据库研究现状的基础上 ,指出现有脆弱性数据库系统数据管理方法的不足之处 ,提出基于Krsul脆弱性分类法和联邦模型实现一种脆弱性数据库系统。该脆弱性数据库采用Krsul脆弱性分类法实现脆弱性数据的分类组织 ,采用联邦模型作为数据库系统的体系结构 ,采用Web界面实现数据库的人机接口。     

An approximate dynamic programing approach to the development of heuristics for the scheduling of impatient jobs in a clearing system

A single server is faced with a collection of jobs of varying duration and urgency. Each job has a random lifetime during which it is available for nonpreemptive service. Should a job's lifetime expire before its service begins then it is lost from the system unserved. The goal is to schedule the jobs for service to maximize the expected number served to completion. Two heuristics have been proposed in the literature. One (labeled π^S) operates a static priority among the job classes and works well in a “no premature job loss” limit, whereas the second (π^M) is a myopic heuristic which works well when lifetimes are short. Both can exhibit poor performance for problems at some distance from the regimes for which they were designed. We develop a robustly good heuristic by an approximative approach to the application of a policy improvement step to the asymptotically optimal heuristic π^S, in which we use a fluid model to obtain an approximation for the value function of π^S. The performance of the proposed heuristic is investigated in an extensive numerical study. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2010     

A non‐linear defence‐growth nexus? evidence from the US economy

The defense‐growth nexus is investigated empirically using time series data for the US and allowing the effect of defense spending on growth to be non‐linear. Using recently developed econometric methods involving threshold regressions, evidence of a level‐dependent effect of military expenditure on GDP growth is found: the positive externality effect of defense spending prevails for relatively lower levels of defense spending (with respect to the history of defense spending in the US) and reverts its influence for higher levels.     

Changing the paradigm: Simulation,now a method of first resort

Decades ago, simulation was famously characterized as a “method of last resort,” to which analysts should turn only “when all else fails.” In those intervening decades, the technologies supporting simulation—computing hardware, simulation‐modeling paradigms, simulation software, design‐and‐analysis methods—have all advanced dramatically. We offer an updated view that simulation is now a very appealing option for modeling and analysis. When applied properly, simulation can provide fully as much insight, with as much precision as desired, as can exact analytical methods that are based on more restrictive assumptions. The fundamental advantage of simulation is that it can tolerate far less restrictive modeling assumptions, leading to an underlying model that is more reflective of reality and thus more valid, leading to better decisions. Published 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 293–303, 2015     

多因素空间近距离巡查效能评估建模

空间近距离巡查可以开展对目标的近距离观测和监视,用于识别目标类型和工作状态等,对在轨服务、博弈对抗等军民领域均具有重要意义。分析了空间巡查任务的一般形式,并以近距离巡查最常用的光学观测为对象,构建了巡查观测的约束模型和相对距离因素评估模型、有效观测时间评估模型、目标观测角度评估模型等多因素的观测任务效能评估模型,解决了面向巡查任务全过程的综合效能评估问题,可以更好地支撑基于评估结果的巡查策略设计和巡查轨迹优化等。基于数值算例分析和半实物仿真实验,对提出的评估模型进行了仿真验证,结果显示实际观测效果和模型评估结果一致。