The fertile ground of Hell’s carnival: Charles T. R. Bohannan and the US Army’s Counter Intelligence Corps’ investigations of war criminals,collaborators, and the Huk,in the Philippines 1945–1947

Insurgencies thrive in regions where government legitimacy is absent. In the post-war Philippines, Captain Charles T. R. Bohannan of the Army’s Counter Intelligence Corps became actively aware of this dynamic. Bohannan is best known for his later work with Edward Lansdale and Ramon Magsaysay in defeating the Huk Rebellion (1950–1954). Here the author examines Bohannan’s early investigative work against Japanese war criminals, wartime Filipino collaborators, and the rising threat of communist subversion most associated with the Huk. All of these experiences fed into what would be the successful campaign against the Huk, chronicled in his seminal work, Counter Guerrilla Operations: The Philippines Experience, and offers lessons on the investigative (as opposed to tactical or psychological) nature of effective counter-insurgency work, as it relates to both legitimacy in governance and the rise of insurgencies.     

Nuclear weapons and alliance institutions in the era of President Trump

The swearing in of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the United States presages, at the very least, a period of flux in American strategy with respect to the relationship between nuclear weapons and alliances. In this response to three thoughtful rejoinders to our article, “Nuclear weapons, the United States and alliances in Europe and Asia: Toward an institutional perspective,” we clarify key aspects of our argument and discuss why alliance institutions are likely to be relatively robust in the face of change, how they can influence national decision-making, and argue that they may exert a moderating influence over the new administration.     

从大国博弈视角解读与应对第三次抵消战略

在常规军力优势相对衰落、经费预算日益缩紧的背景下,美军为维持其军事霸权,提出了旨在实现兵力全球自由投送的第三次抵消战略(Third Offset Strategy)。通过梳理抵消战略的现实背景、历史沿革和战略目的,我们发现如果把第三次抵消战略简单视作美军的军事技术发展战略甚至军事战略,就会陷入片面而幼稚的认识误区。除了防范潜在的技术诱骗和技术突袭,更应该从大国博弈的战略视角出发,全面审视和应对第三次抵消战略对我国的挑战。美军实现国家利益的需求导向、自我变革的决心勇气和创新能力、科技兴军的先进理念和以军为主的军民融合成功经验值得借鉴。要以我为主参与制定未来战争的"游戏规则",做到"你打你的,我打我的";要深入研究美军作战体系和美国国家战略的薄弱环节,有针对性地"攻其所必救",从而化解重大安全挑战,争得新的战略机遇期。     

运用“五种思维”提升部队指挥员应急处置能力

运用底线思维、辩证思维、创新思维、战略思维和历史思维五种思维有效提高部队指挥员应急处置的安全防控能力、决策能力、应变能力、控制能力和学习能力。     

军人心理训练的实证研究及其思考

军人心理训练,作为一种将心理训练与战斗力相结合的新型训练模式,是军人提升心理能力、培育素质素养的重要途径。通过概述军人心理训练的内涵和方法,梳理实证研究的研究现状,为拓展军人心理训练领域研究、深化训练应用实效提出思考。     

三维均匀化理论预测多孔混凝土等效弹性模量

应用多尺度渐进展开的均匀化理论,推导三维均匀化理论的有限元解法,求解复合材料等效弹性系数。假设多孔混凝土由光滑均匀一致的球孔与水泥石基质组成,提出改进的随机投放方法,生成三维均匀化理论求解的随机单胞模型。以聚苯乙烯泡沫(EPS)混凝土为数值算例,生成6组不同体积分数的EPS混凝土随机单胞模型,通过三维均匀化理论的有限元法计算得到其等效弹性模量。计算结果表明:随机单胞模型能反映细观的非均质性,三维均匀化理论的有限元法计算得到的等效弹性模量变化趋势比较符合Miled的试验结果。     

Advancing “Defence-in-depth”: intelligence and systems dynamics

This article aims to encourage the fostering of more systems thinking, and its greater exploitation, within the domain of contemporary intelligence. With particular focus on “micro systems thinking” and with reference to key intelligence processes, such as intelligence analysis, the utility of many systems dynamics within the intelligence context seeks to be further revealed. Through their greater collective harnessing, including up to “System of Systems” (“SoS”) dynamics, and promoting all that they can offer, more sophisticated overarching operational-to-strategic/policy “ends,” notably that of “defence-in-depth,” can be viably further advanced in a sustainable manner into the future. Arguably, a much-needed transformative impact on contemporary intelligence can also be increasingly realised through comprehensively engaging in and with more systems and SoS thinking. Aiding civil protection tasks, crisis management, emergency planners, and civil contingency practitioners likewise gain.     

助飞鱼雷机动区域射击法攻潜能力研究

以飞航式助飞鱼雷为例,在分析助飞鱼雷攻潜过程的基础上,针对机动目标提出了在无指令修正情况下助飞鱼雷的机动区域射击法,并运用解析法对射击诸元进行解算。在建立助飞鱼雷作战能力仿真模型时,围绕捕获概率、鱼雷仿真和目标仿真等方面进行模型的构建,并采用蒙特卡罗方法进行仿真计算,分析采用机动区域射击方法时影响助飞鱼雷攻潜能力的主要因素及其规律,为更好发挥武器对机动目标的打击能力提供理论参考。     

Indian Military Modernization and Conventional Deterrence in South Asia

In recent years, headline grabbing increases in the Indian defense budget have raised concerns that India’s on-going military modernization threatens to upset the delicate conventional military balance vis-à-vis Pakistan. Such an eventuality is taken as justification for Islamabad’s pursuit of tactical-nuclear weapons and other actions that have worrisome implications for strategic stability on the subcontinent. This article examines the prospects for Pakistan’s conventional deterrence in the near to medium term, and concludes that it is much better than the pessimists allege. A host of factors, including terrain, the favorable deployment of Pakistani forces, and a lack of strategic surprise in the most likely conflict scenarios, will mitigate whatever advantages India may be gaining through military modernization. Despite a growing technological edge in some areas, Indian policymakers cannot be confident that even a limited resort to military force would achieve a rapid result, which is an essential pre-condition for deterrence failure.     

面向任务的有人机/无人机协同对地攻击概率模型

有人机/无人机协同对地攻击是未来空对地打击的主要作战样式,如何评估其协同作战的效能是军地双方共同面对的重要课题。首先根据完成对地攻击任务的4个环节建立了对地攻击的总概率模型;然后基于桥联模型建立了各个环节的概率模型;最后给出了一架有人机协同两架无人机对地攻击的算例,并对模型反算、协同与非协同对比以及多波次攻击等问题进行了讨论和分析,验证了模型良好可用性和广泛适用性。