Selling to strategic and loss‐averse consumers: Stocking,procurement, and product design policies

Motivated by the presence of loss‐averse decision making behavior in practice, this article considers a supply chain consisting of a firm and strategic consumers who possess an S‐shaped loss‐averse utility function. In the model, consumers decide the purchase timing and the firm chooses the inventory level. We find that the loss‐averse consumers' strategic purchasing behavior is determined by their perceived gain and loss from strategic purchase delay, and the given rationing risk. Thus, the firm that is cognizant of this property tailors its inventory stocking policy based on the consumers' loss‐averse behavior such as their perceived values of gain and loss, and their sensitivity to them. We also demonstrate that the firm's equilibrium inventory stocking policy reflects both the economic logic of the traditional newsvendor inventory model, and the loss‐averse behavior of consumers. The equilibrium order quantity is significantly different from those derived from models that assume that the consumers are risk neutral and homogeneous in their valuations. We show that the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior tends to keep an unnecessarily high inventory level that leads to excessive leftovers. Our numerical experiments further reveal that in some extreme cases the firm that ignores strategic consumer's loss‐aversion behavior generates almost 92% more leftovers than the firm that possesses consumers’ loss‐aversion information and takes it into account when making managerial decisions. To mitigate the consumer's forward‐looking behavior, we propose the adoption of the practice of agile supply chain management, which possesses the following attributes: (i) procuring inventory after observing real‐time demand information, (ii) enhanced design (which maintains the current production mix but improves the product performance to a higher level), and (iii) customized design (which maintains the current performance level but increases the variety of the current production line to meet consumers’ specific demands). We show that such a practice can induce the consumer to make early purchases by increasing their rationing risk, increasing the product value, or diversifying the product line. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 435–453, 2015     

Stopping Nuclear Traffic

The exploits of the A.Q. Khan nuclear network have received significant attention in the last three years. Gordon Corera's recent book, Shopping for Bombs, is an important addition to the existing literature. In this book, the author explores how Khan became a nuclear supplier and why his network was able to flourish for so many years. In his analysis, Corera examines relevant domestic and international political circumstances that affected Khan's rise and ultimate fall. The author also gives a compelling account of the international investigation that shut down this network in 2004 and warns that Khan's network will not be the last to challenge international nonproliferation regimes. Despite a few gaps in the book's narrative and analysis, Shopping for Bombs is an important source of insight into the activities of Khan and his network.     

The Sword of General Sir William Fenwick Williams,Baronet of Kars,in the Royal Armouries (IX.1841) and Aspects of High Victorian Sword Design

Abstract

The Sword of Honour (RA IX.1841) presented in 1856 by the Province of Nova Scotia to its native son, General Sir William Fenwick Williams, Bart. for his deeds at Kars, Turkey, is described, illustrated, discussed and placed both in its historical and its design context. Other notable British swords of the Victorian Age (1837–1901), the Age of Empire, are also examined and the various and influential aspects of their designs, ornament and iconography discussed.     

Dual-Ignition Musket Locks Including a Matchlock — a Note on their Design and Utility

Abstract

A review is presented of dual-ignition musket locks, including a matchlock, to identify the key design variants and their subtleties, and to initiate a discussion on their utility.     

Measuring the Impact of Military Spending: How Far Does a DSGE Model Deviate from Reality?

Dunne, Smith, and Willenbockel (2005) argue that the mainstream growth literature has not found military spending to be a significant determinant of economic growth, yet much of the defense economics literature has noted significant effects. This paper revisits this issue by using a DSGE-VAR approach, combining both theoretical and empirical methods. We present that the DSGE approach (estimated with the Bayesian technique) and the Bayesian VAR with the Minnesota Prior both lead to worse in-sample fit than our proposed DSGE-VAR framework. The DSGE-VAR approach reveals that a positive military spending shock boosts the U.S. economy, increasing per capita real GDP growth, consumption, inflation and interest rate. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications. Future investigations such as exploring an optimal military spending policy could adopt the approach in this paper to determine the best model – empirical, theoretical, or a combination of the two.     

Dangerous work: Terrorism against U.S. diplomats

The goal of diplomats is to represent their countries’ interests through diplomacy, not arms. Because they are not military personnel, they may be perceived as at lower risk of being the target of terrorists. However, recent events have called this perception into question. Despite this danger, there has been little research on terrorist attacks against diplomats. Drawing on the terrorism studies literature, this article argues that diplomats are targeted more than non-diplomatic targets in countries where certain U.S. foreign policies are implemented. An empirical analysis of 471 attacks against U.S. diplomats from 1970 to 2011 reveals that while U.S. alliances and foreign aid increase the likelihood of attacks against diplomats, U.S. military intervention and civil war, on the other hand, increase the risk of terrorism against non-diplomatic targets. This finding is relevant because it shows terrorist attacks against diplomats result from certain types of foreign policy.     

A Portrait of a Helmet: A Funerary Helmet from the Northern Netherlands

This paper describes a seventeeth-century helmet, which was found in a church in the Frisian village of Schettens. Not only the type, but also the context in which this helmet was found, made the find exceptional. The presence of tombstones in the church made it possible to trace the object to a Frisian colonel from the Dutch States Army. What makes the helmet even more special, is the fact that it was prominently depicted on the tombstone of the deceased Frisian colonel. The find of the helmet and its ‘portrait’ on the tombstone are unique for the northern Netherlands. It gives cause for further study of the Dutch funeral tradition, in which elements of armour played an important role. In this regard, it is very interesting to draw a comparison with the same tradition in England.     

继电式自动驾驶仪滚动回路自振分析

分析了继电式自动驾驶仪滚动回路的工作特性,给出了该继电特性的描述函数。在此基础上,用描述函数法分析了回路的稳定性,计算出了回路自持振荡的参数,分析了影响自振参数的因素。     

基于热力学第二定律的直喷式柴油机性能分析

这项研究的目的是发展用热力学第二定律分析柴油机在不同运行工况性能的能力.研究是针对一台12150L型柴油机进行的,以发动机气缸内部压缩、燃烧、膨胀、瞬时传热和换气过程的理论模拟模型为基础,应用热力学第二定律分析,度量各种能量品质的优劣和不可逆损失值,并且与热力学第一定律的能量平衡进行了比较.分别改变循环喷油量、燃烧开始角、燃烧持续期及燃烧品质指数.研究了参数变化对缸内可用能和热力学第一定律效率和第二定律效率的影响.