Basra's not Belfast: the British Army, ‘Small Wars’ and Iraq

This article examines British Army operations in Iraq. It focuses on the causes of the army's apparent failure to live up to its reputation for the conduct of small wars. The paper discusses the British experience of small wars in the context of Iraq, the influence of doctrine and strategy, and the political and moral factors that shaped the army's performance. The paper's conclusions suggest that the Iraq War may cause a significant reappraisal, not just of military doctrine and strategy, but also of Britain's role in future small wars.     

Country survey XVI the defence sector in the economy of a declining superpower: Soviet Union and Russia, 1965-2001

The Soviet Union was able to develop a large military-industrial complex and become the world's second superpower despite deficiencies in its centrally planned economy because defence was given high priority status and special planning, rationing and administrative mechanisms were used to attain national security objectives. However, in the period 1976-85 the effectiveness of priority protection diminished and defence institutions experienced more of the problems typical of the shortage economic system. The heavy defence burden also created growing difficulties for the civilian economy. The attempts by the Gorbachev government to reform the defence sector and improve defence-economic relationships during perestroika (1985-91) uniformly failed. For most of the transition period, the Russian military-industrial complex has been adversely affected by its low priority status, cuts in defence spending, instability of the hybrid politico-economic system, and negative growth of the economy. The armed forces and defence industry have been reduced in size and their outputs of military services and equipment have fallen to low levels. Nevertheless, the Russian armed forces still have over one million troops, significant stocks of sophisticated conventional weapons, and a large nuclear arsenal. The government of President Putin has raised the priority of the defence sector, increased real defence spending, and adopted ambitious plans to revive Russian military power. It is likely, though, that tight resource constraints will hamper efforts to reform the armed forces and to upgrade weapons. By 2010 Russia will be an important, but not dominant, military power in Eurasia.     

The future of European defence policy: An economic perspective

European defence policy has been dominated by politics. This paper shows how economic principles can be used to derive guidelines for the formulation of European defence policy. The inefficiencies of the EU's existing defence arrangements are identified. It is shown that there is scope for efficiency improvements in the EU's Armed Forces and its defence industries.     

The benefits and costs of the UK arms trade

A benefit‐cost framework and the associated evidence is used to evaluate UK arms exports. Two issues are examined in detail. First, trade externalities; and second, a case study of the problems and costs of maintaining the UK submarine industrial base without exports.     

GLOBALIZING REAGAN'S INF TREATY

When it was concluded more than a quarter century ago, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union was hailed as a disarmament watershed, eliminating entire classes of nuclear missiles from the arsenals of the arms-racing Cold War superpowers. Over the intervening decades, there have been repeated calls to convert this legacy treaty into a new international norm against nuclear and missile proliferation by broadening it into a global prohibition on ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. Indeed, variations on this proposal have been knocking around for so long and with so little success that the entire concept has come to be dismissed by many knowledgeable insiders as something of a farce. Looking beyond its inauspicious pedigree, however, this viewpoint suggests that the time is opportune for Washington to give the idea a fresh look. Drawing on a detailed review of the history of “Global INF” and an analysis of the contemporary context, the author recommends that the Obama administration consider a simple declaratory approach that promises modest initial benefits, avoids previous and foreseeable pitfalls, and plausibly lays a solid foundation for achieving significant long-term progress.     

武警部队抢险救灾法律制度的完善

近年来,我国频繁发生历史罕见的自然灾害。在抢险救灾中,武警部队已成为一支重要的突击力量。按照习主席关于“武警部队要勇于承担抢险救灾等急难险重任务”的重要指示,武警法律工作者必须适应武警部队职能拓展的需要,在借鉴国外成功经验的基础上,尽快完善武警部队抢险救灾应急法律制度,切实提高部队执行抢险救灾任务的能力。     

武警部队重大改革必须向“能打胜仗”的战斗力聚焦

从关于国防和军队重大改革的重要论述入手,系统地阐述了武警部队重大改革必须向“能打胜仗”的战斗力聚焦。主要从三个层面进行分析：一是向提高部队整体素质及优化规模结构聚焦;二是向提高部队武器装备保障效能聚焦;三是向增强部队以执勤处突为中心的军事能力聚焦。     

基于抽象隐马尔可夫模型的CGF路径规划识别

路径规划识别是一种以位置信息为输入的在线识别。为了使CGF能在仿真中识别对手的路径和终点目标,在分析路径规划层次的基础上引入了抽象隐马尔可夫模型的识别框架。针对标准模型在对手更改终点目标和自上而下规划时无法识别的问题,提出了一种顶层策略可变的抽象隐马尔可夫模型。为模型的顶层策略增加初始分布和策略终止变量,更改了策略终止变量间的依赖关系,使下层策略能被强制终止。给出了改进后DBN结构,并通过推导条件概率更新和RB变量抽样流程实现了模型的近似推理。仿真实验表明,改进模型能准确识别给定环境下的各类典型航迹,不仅在终点目标不变时能较好地维持标准模型的识别准确率,在提供足够的观测数据后还能很好地解决变目标识别问题。     

Spies,advisors, and grunts: Film portrayals of counterinsurgency in Vietnam

Vietnam was a complex conflict, which historians and political scientists have struggled to understand. Some of the bitterest disputes in the historiography revolve around the US approach to counterinsurgency in Vietnam. Many different facets of the war have received the attention of filmmakers, and an examination of their work suggests new ways of thinking about the conflict. This article considers film portrayals of three phases of the Vietnam War – firstly, the early period of ‘political action’, then the advisory period, and finally the Americanization of the war after 1965. It suggests that by examining the experiences of participants in each of these phases, Vietnam War cinema helps to illustrate the problems that faced various American approaches to counterinsurgency in the conflict. Combined with the importance of films in determining popular perceptions of both historical conflicts and counterinsurgency in general, it suggests that they are worthy subjects of study and critique.