New Sources on the Role of Soviet Submarines in the Cuban Missile Crisis

Drawing on evidence collected from eyewitness interviews, new Russian secondary sources, as well as recently declassified documents from both sides, the author significantly widens the academic understanding of the maritime dimension of this gravest crisis of the Cold War. Most significant is her conclusion that Soviet commanders were led by complex and challenging tactical circumstances, including unreliable communications and malfunctioning equipment, which might have prompted them to contemplate a resort to tactical nuclear weapons on more than one occasion. Almost as disturbing is the revelation that US forces were not aware of this particular threat. This research reveals how a chain of inadvertent developments at sea could have precipitated global nuclear war, underlining the extreme danger of the crisis.     

China’s ‘Three Warfares’: Origins,Applications, and Organizations

Entering the twenty-first century, China has demonstrated an assertive foreign policy, not only in employing various types of economic and military leverage but also in conducting the Three Warfares (三战) – psychological warfare, public opinion warfare, and legal warfare. This article attempts to identify the motives and methods of China’s Three Warfares by analyzing its history, logic, and agents. Based on this analysis, the author also presents the position of the Three Warfares in China’s foreign policy and the warfares’ impact on the international security environment involving other major powers and China’s neighbors.     

Local defence forces and counterinsurgency in Afghanistan: learning from the CIA's Village Defense Program in South Vietnam

Some scholars would have us believe that the distinctions between military and policing roles, methods and objectives have become increasingly blurred by the security demands of a post-Cold War and post-11 September global and domestic order. This article explores the current state of the police–military divide through a conceptual and case study analysis. It concludes that, in this case, there is some conflation occurring at a macro-level as international and domestic affairs have become increasingly indistinct, but the article also demonstrates that the actual ethos and practice of these agencies still differs strongly. Most importantly, the article argues that this distinction is in fact a very useful one in planning for future peace support operations     

基于网络分析法的弹药生产响应能力影响因素

针对未来战场对弹药需求动态、突发、受任务冲击影响等特点,提出弹药生产响应能力概念,建立了任务冲击条件下弹药生产响应能力影响因素的指标体系。运用网络分析法,建立典型结构的弹药生产响应能力影响因素的网络模型,得出弹药生产响应能力的关键影响因素,为弹药生产响应能力分析与提高提供了科学研究方法。     

美国军方科研基金资助策略研究(2010—2020年)

美国能够保持军事技术的长期领先与其稳定的军事科研投入和科学的资助策略密不可分,但以往研究存在切入角度单一、关注领域有限、缺少长时间跨领域研究等不足。本文基于Web of Science数据库收录的2010年至2020年美国军方机构参与资助的科研项目文献数据,分析了美军长期关注的主要研究方向和重点研究领域以及美军主要资助机构及其各自的侧重领域。研究结果表明,美国军方以国防战略目标为根本,超前谋划军事科研资助,坚持基础研究和颠覆性技术研究的平衡,军方主要资助机构重视前沿科技领域,积极开展跨部门跨领域以及跨国合作。该研究对了解美国军事科研资助策略提供了新的视角,对促进我国军事科技发展有一定借鉴意义。     

美军语言智能处理技术的发展策略与启示

发展语言智能处理技术是全球新军事科技研发的重要趋势。美军在几十年的发展过程中,不遗余力地推进新的语言智能技术的研发与应用。在人工智能宏观政策和举措的带动下,美国政府与军方在语言智能领域采取了较为清晰的战略路线:明确需求方向,注重长远规划;重视军民融合,调动地方研发活力;创新技术研发资金的管理模式,提高发展效率;推动技术在关键领域的应用,加快美军战斗力的形成。本文认为,面对这一趋势,我们需要深度布局国防语言智能处理技术战略,重视面向未来需求的长远规划;充分调动语言智能处理技术研发的"民间力量",注重军产学研的协同创新;建立科学适度的项目研发机制,加快颠覆性技术的战斗力转化。     

网络分析法和熵权的装备保障系统能力评估

针对传统方法在解决装备保障能力评估问题上的局限性,利用网络分析法,构建了双层网络结构的评估指标体系,以反映装备保障系统复杂的内部关系;为克服网络分析法在求解指标权重时的缺陷,结合熵权理论,提出了指标权重修正模型;兼顾平时、战时的不同评估需求,提出了基于网络分析法和熵权的综合评估模型。通过实例应用,验证了方法的可行性、有效性。     

Metastases: Exploring the impact of foreign fighters in conflicts abroad

This article examines the historical impact of foreign fighters and how the international community has sought to counter this threat. It argues that foreign fighters have contributed significantly to the metastasis of Salafi-jihadism over the past 30 years. They have globalized local conflicts. They have brought advanced skills to battlefields. Further, the logistics infrastructure built by foreign fighters has allowed Salafi-jihadism to expand rapidly. The challenge for security officials today is how to prevent the foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq from expanding the threat of Salafi-jihadism further. To inform this effort, this article derives lessons learned from past efforts against Arab Afghans in Bosnia (1992–1995) and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi’s foreign volunteers in Iraq (2003–2008).     

小子样条件下基于Normal-Poisson过程的性能可靠性评定

对于高可靠、长寿命产品,基于性能退化数据分析可靠性是一种行之有效的技术途径。结合航空航天产品性能退化的机理与现场试验小子样的特点,建立了基于Normal-Poisson过程的性能退化模型。论文在对产品性能退化建模的基础上,结合Bayes方法给出了退化模型参数的估计算法和可靠性推断的公式,最后结合实例说明了方法的有效性。     

美陆军通用基金企业业务系统特点与启示

本文以美国陆军通用基金企业业务系统为研究对象,从后勤信息化建设发展历程、军费企业化管理特点和陆军财务转型重要举措三个方面介绍了该系统建设的有关背景,总结了与"军财工程"相比,通用基金企业业务系统存在的分配多个用户角色、实时共享数据和重视成本文化等多个突出特点,并提出与军队财务管理信息系统建设有关的六点启示,以期为推进军队财务信息化建设、提高军队财务信息化保障水平提供参考。