潜艇CGF规避反潜航空兵行为建模

对战场态势的不完全观测是潜艇作战的重要特点,充分利用不完全观测信息,提高潜艇对抗决策的合理性是设计潜艇CGF的核心问题。针对潜艇作战特点,提出了潜艇自防御行为模型框架,并利用多Agent不确定场景建模技术,建立了基于POMDP的规避反潜航空兵行为模型,最后进行了仿真验证。结果表明,该模型具有较强的可行性。     

Identifying the challenges to defence reform in Central and Eastern Europe: observations from the field

The authors have over 50 years' experience of working on defence in Central and Eastern Europe. They have been intimately involved in trying to reform over 10 national defence organisations including Ukraine. During this work, they often faced intractable resistance and scepticism or conversely, apparent unbounded support, but following this, a complete lack of any actual implementation work by officials. This paper addresses some of the findings and observations identified by the authors that appear to cause these responses and the consequent failure of reform. A new research approach has been taken by using the business and culture tools from Schein, Hofstede and Kotter to try and unravel the underlying causality of that failure. The second part of the paper produces a new process for change based upon the research conclusions to help other advisers and consultants working on reform in the post communist defence arena.     

The Serbian defence institution: the need for clear policy guidance to improve the Serbian defence planning,management, and command processes

ABSTRACT

The uncritical layering of western liberal defence governance norms and concepts on top of existing legacy concepts has impeded achieving coherent military capabilities and capacities when Serbia’s political and military leadership tried to reform the defence system using Western benchmarking principles and Western countries’ best practices. The process of this change has been more valuable than its actual output, as defined by increased capabilities. Such outcomes should be reflective of policy guidance, and can be thought of as closing the trinity loop of a defence planning system: plans, money and execution. This article addresses two key functional areas of the Serbian defence institution. First, it assesses the current state of defence planning to discern its strengths and weaknesses to ascertain if plans are tied to financial decision-making. Second, a full examination of current Serbian defence management is conducted to discern whether weaknesses exist that distract from producing operational capabilities. Both areas are analyzed thoroughly and some solutions for change are proposed. Also, the article analyzes the appearance of two negative phenomena in the planning process – economization and managerialism.     

Between a rock and a hard place: Europe in a post-INF world

The end of the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty has the potential to plunge Europe and NATO into deep crisis. Russia’s continued violation coupled with the Donald J. Trump administration’s desire to balance against Moscow and Beijing could force a new missile debate on Europeans. Even though Washington is trying to assuage its allies, the specter of another round of INF missile deployments to Europe is not unrealistic. Meanwhile, NATO’s European members face a dilemma. Some want NATO to resolutely push back against Russia. Others want to avoid a new deployment debate, at almost all costs. The Kremlin will use these cleavages to weaken NATO. If not carefully handled, NATO’s response to the Russian missile buildup could lead to domestic turmoil in a number of European states and render the alliance ineffective for a prolonged period. Europeans need to act now and voice their preferences in the military and diplomatic domains. A number of different military options are available, below the level of deploying new INF missiles in Europe. However, Europeans need to consider trade-offs regarding crisis and arms-race stability. At the same time, it will be up to European capitals to conceptualize a new arms-control framework for the post-INF world, one that takes into account today’s geopolitical realities and the entanglement of modern conventional and nuclear forces. Given the Trump administration’s loathing of arms control, concepts of mutual restraint may well have to wait for the next US administration. In any case, that should not stop Europeans from taking on more responsibility for their own security.     

Defence Spending and Income Inequality in Taiwan

The rising trend in income inequality has recently attracted a renewed interest in the determinants of this growing trend across many countries. This article adds to the debate by investigating the impact of defence expenditure as a possible determinant of inequality in Taiwan, a country once was considered to be a poster child of an equitable growth, but now income inequality has become one of the Taiwan’s growing challenges. Applying the bounds test approach to cointegration and four long-run estimators for the period from 1976–2011, we found a long-run relationship between the various measures of inequality and defence expenditure where defence expenditure exerts a positive and a statistically significant impact on the worse income inequality in Taiwan. Further application of the lag-augmented causality test procedure also reveals a unidirectional causality running from defence expenditure to income inequality with defence expenditure causing income inequality to rise.     

《人民武装警察法》若干问题评析

2009年4月,第十一届全国人大常委会第八次会议初次审议并向社会公布了《人民武装警察法（草案）》。同年8月27日,第十一届全国人大常委会第十次会议通过了该法。《人民武装警察法》的颁布施行,对于武警部队法制建设无疑具有“里程碑”式的意义。但是,不可否认,《人民武装警察法》并非尽善尽美,仍然存在着进一步需要完善之处。就其中的立法依据、调整范围、与其他法律规范的衔接、授权立法以及法律责任的设定等问题加以评析。     

武警部队处置突发事件的职能与相关法律制度初探

武警部队是处置突发事件的重要力量,其处置突发事件的职能具有特殊性。结合《中华人民共和国突发事件应对法》（简称《突发事件应对法》）和《中华人民共和国人民武装警察法》（简称《人民武装警察法》）等相关法律、法规,介绍了武警部队处置突发事件的法律制度现状,阐述了当前处置突发事件法律制度存在的一般问题和武警部队处置突发事件的立法现状,并提出完善我国突发事件应急法律体系的建议。     

弹道导弹防御系统效能分析与措施研究

简要介绍了弹道导弹防御系统的组成 ,提供了系统作战效能计算的主要思想、方法 ,给出了概率计算模型。根据分析结果 ,结合现代战争的作战方式和导弹防御系统的作战特点 ,提出了提高弹道导弹防御系统作战效能的技术和战术措施。