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51.
《美苏消除两国中程导弹和中短程导弹条约》的失效重创了本就脆弱的国际军控体系,对美俄战略稳定和全球军事安全带来消极影响,国际军控合作和全球军事安全迫切需要重构新的军控体系。本文立足当前国际军控现状,在分析美俄“退约”背后各方战略考量及国际军控面临的挑战,如“美国优先”理念下的霸权主义和单边主义、国际军控体系自身的脆弱性和局限性和新军事革命给全球安全增添新的变量的基础上,提出了“构建人类命运共同体”理念凝聚全球安全共识、以大国责任和义务为基础构建多层次军控体系和以多边军控体系循序推进国际军控进程等措施和建议,以期为推动国际军控合作,建立更为公平、合理、有效的国际军控体系做出贡献。 相似文献
52.
In this article, we analyze a discrete‐time queue that is motivated from studying hospital inpatient flow management, where the customer count process captures the midnight inpatient census. The stationary distribution of the customer count has no explicit form and is difficult to compute in certain parameter regimes. Using the Stein's method framework, we identify a continuous random variable to approximate the steady‐state customer count. The continuous random variable corresponds to the stationary distribution of a diffusion process with state‐dependent diffusion coefficients. We characterize the error bounds of this approximation under a variety of system load conditions—from lightly loaded to heavily loaded. We also identify the critical role that the service rate plays in the convergence rate of the error bounds. We perform extensive numerical experiments to support the theoretical findings and to demonstrate the approximation quality. In particular, we show that our approximation performs better than those based on constant diffusion coefficients when the number of servers is small, which is relevant to decision making in a single hospital ward. 相似文献
53.
The special operations forces (SOF) of the industrial democracies have suddenly and rapidly grown in numbers and resources during the past decades. Most explanations for this growth focus on factors external to the armed forces. We argue that the enlargement of SOF is also the result of internal organizational dynamics. First, we compare SOF to other units and military appendages that have grown over the past 30 years in order to delineate what is unique to their development and the special adaptive potential they bring to the armed forces: generalized specialization, boundary spanning roles, and enlargement of military autonomy. Second, we analyze the actions of internal military entrepreneurs and their organizational mentors to show how they use this adaptive potential to “sell” the use of SOF to key policy-makers and decision-makers. 相似文献
54.
This article studies the optimal capacity investment problem for a risk‐averse decision maker. The capacity can be either purchased or salvaged, whereas both involve a fixed cost and a proportional cost/revenue. We incorporate risk preference and use a consumption model to capture the decision maker's risk sensitivity in a multiperiod capacity investment model. We show that, in each period, capacity and consumption decisions can be separately determined. In addition, we characterize the structure of the optimal capacity strategy. When the parameters are stationary, we present certain conditions under which the optimal capacity strategy could be easily characterized by a static two‐sided (s, S) policy, whereby, the capacity is determined only at the beginning of period one, and held constant during the entire planning horizon. It is purchased up to B when the initial capacity is below b, salvaged down to Σ when it is above σ, and remains constant otherwise. Numerical tests are presented to investigate the impact of demand volatility on the optimal capacity strategy. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 63: 218–235, 2016 相似文献
55.
Richard A. Bitzinger 《战略研究杂志》2016,39(5-6):762-789
ABSTRACTEven with sizable economic inputs, access to foreign technologies, and considerable political will, China, up until the late 1990s, experienced only limited success when it came to the local design, development, and manufacture of advanced conventional weapons. Not surprisingly, therefore, reforming the local defense industry in order to upgrade its technology base and manufacturing capabilities and to make armaments production more efficient and cost-effective has long preoccupied the Chinese leadership. The fact that most of these efforts had little positive impact on the country’s military technological and industrial capabilities only encouraged Beijing to experiment with additional reforms in the hopes of finally getting it right. 相似文献
56.
Christopher Tuck 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2016,27(6):996-1018
This article evaluates the performance of the Special Air Service (SAS) during secret cross-border raids conducted as part of Britain’s undeclared war against Indonesia from 1963–1966. The analysis reviews the existing debate on the SAS’ performance during this campaign; it looks more closely at how military effectiveness might be defined; and it then examines, using the SAS’ own operations reports, the nature of their activities and their success or failure. This article concludes that critics of the SAS’ effectiveness during Confrontation are right; but for the wrong reasons. SAS operations did indeed have less effect than orthodox accounts would have it. But the reasons for this lay not in their misuse but in the exigencies of British strategy. This article demonstrates an enduring truth – no matter how ‘special’ a military force might be, tactical excellence cannot compensate reliably for problems in strategy. 相似文献
57.
Karl Skogstad 《Defence and Peace Economics》2016,27(3):323-352
This paper examines the determinants of national defence budgets in the post-Cold War era employing a spatial econometric framework. Using data for 124 countries over a 16-year time period, I examine spatial relationships in defence spending to investigate how countries account for the military spending of other countries when setting their budgets. Using specially developed weighting matrices, the regression results indicate that defence budgets are positively spatially correlated. These results provide support for the use of ‘external’ factors when examining defence budgets over this time period. The importance of a country’s spatial location when setting its budget is further examined through the identification of regions of high and low defence spending. 相似文献
58.
Recently, Finland and Sweden decided to substantially deepen their defence cooperation and this project involves creating a bilateral standing Naval Task Group (SFNTG). The present article aims at examining the deepening naval cooperation between Finland and Sweden from a regional integration perspective, focusing on its motives, current challenges and future prospects. Driven by perceptions of common challenges and desires for cost-effectiveness, and strengthened by recent successes on sea surveillance and a combined Amphibious Task Unit, the bilateral project has considerable potential to achieve success. To fulfil its objectives, substantial legal changes in both countries are required to allow the use of force on each other’s territorial waters. To cater for the requirement of not conflicting with EU, NORDEFCO or NATO cooperations, the bilateral Task Group must operate according to NATO standards and by using English as the language in command and control. The costs of adjusting the naval units to NATO’s technical requirements are far from negligible and this issue still remains to be solved. If Finland and Sweden manage to incorporate new policies, common structures and common organisational norms among their navies, an even deeper integration, as in Belgium and the Netherlands, are conceivable. 相似文献
59.
Yoav Gortzak 《Small Wars & Insurgencies》2014,25(1):137-160
Military commanders, policymakers, and analysts have recently embraced the concept of combined action as a powerful tool to improve the effectiveness of Afghan security forces in the fight against the Taliban. In doing so, they explicitly draw inspiration from the Combined Action Program employed by US Marines during the Vietnam War. This program is widely considered to have greatly improved the effectiveness of South Vietnamese government forces and contributed to increased population security in its area of operations and is considered a model worthy of emulation. This study finds that the success of the Vietnam-era Combined Action Program was more qualified than contemporary proponents argue. It argues that successes were tempered, and conditioned, by the choice of junior commanders, the level of operational control enjoyed by the US Marines, and the way the local forces were recruited and deployed. These conditions offer valuable lessons for those seeking to employ combined action not only in present-day Afghanistan, but also in future counterinsurgency campaigns. 相似文献
60.
In most western countries, there is a strong incentive for defence department budget-holders to expend all of the funds they are authorized to spend in a fiscal year. In this paper, we question whether this emphasis makes sense. We develop a model of a defence department’s operating expenditure assuming a fixed level of funding for a year and uncertain costs. The results of the model suggest that the incentive for departmental managers to expend all authorized funds is inefficient. We explore the implications of the model for the Department of National Defence (DND) in Canada in light of the recent criticism of DND lapsed funding by the Auditor-General of Canada. 相似文献