Inventory models with nonlinear shortage costs and stochastic lead times; applications of shape properties of randomly stopped counting processes

In this article, we study generalizations of some of the inventory models with nonlinear costs considered by Rosling in (Oper. Res. 50 (2002) 797–809). In particular, we extend the study of both the periodic review and the compound renewal demand processes from a constant lead time to a random lead time. We find that the quasiconvexity properties of the cost function (and therefore the existence of optimal (s, S) policies), holds true when the lead time has suitable log‐concavity properties. The results are derived by structural properties of renewal delayed processes stopped at an independent random time and by the study of log‐concavity properties of compound distributions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 345–356, 2015     

脉冲噪声环境下无线通信系统性能研究

针对基于高斯噪声的无线通信系统无法适应脉冲噪声的情况,以α稳定分布作为脉冲噪声模型,根据模型统计特性,经过理论分析给出了脉冲噪声条件下2ASK的误码特性计算方法,并通过仿真实验验证了该方法的正确性.仿真表明,在混合信噪比较低(MSNR10dB)的情况下脉冲噪声的影响并不明显,接近于高斯噪声,而在较高混合信噪比(MSNR11dB)情况下脉冲噪声使系统的误码率急剧增加,对通信质量造成严重破坏.     

Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014     

The sixteenth-century antecedents of special operations ‘small war’

The first conceptual, theoretical treatises about small war (la petite guerre) as special operations appeared only from the middle of the seventeenth century. The term is not used in the eighteenth-century sense of ‘special operations’ in older sources. The supposed absence of any treatment of the subject is surprising considering the obsession with the ‘art of war’ in the Renaissance, but other authors attribute it to a supposed antinomy between chivalric ideals and irregular warfare. But the absence of explicit manuals on the subject is not evidence of absence of advanced reflection on this kind of operations in the Middle Ages and in Early Modern times. We should thus look elsewhere, in other genres, for writings that contain and pass on military knowledge. Epics, romances, educational and military treatises, and memoirs in fact contain elements of a theory of special operations, even though these genres differ from our conception of rationality inherited from the Enlightenment.     

Guerrillas and bandits in the Serranía de Ronda, 1810–1812

The Spanish Guerrilla (1808–1812) which has given its name to ideologically motivated insurgencies is usually portrayed as a patriotic uprising against the French occupation forces of Napoleon. It was that, in part, but also many other things besides. This case study illustrates its overlap and convergence with banditry but also with social unrest turned into uprisings directed by poor Spaniards against their creditors, as in the storming of Ronda by insurgents in 1810. From the propaganda of the day to the subsequent Spanish patriotic historiography, there has been a tendency to exaggerate the amplitude of events and also the damage that was done to the French forces and the casualty figures inflicted on them.     

一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型

研究一类具有饱和发生率的离散型SIS传染病模型,得到了模型的基本再生数.通过线性化的方法,运用LaSalle-Lyapunov定理,证明当基本再生数R01时,无病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的;通过迭代的方法,证明当基本再生数R01时,地方病平衡点是全局渐近稳定的.     

协议不相关的未知协议比特流特征提取方法研究

为从协议不相关角度提取未知协议比特流的特征值,分别从比特流中的比特0和1的频数、连续比特0和1的出现频率、固定长度分块内的比特0和1的比特频数、比特流0和1的随机游动最大偏移以及比特流0和1进行傅里叶变换后的峰值高度出发,定义了码元频数统计特征值、游程统计特征值、块内频数统计特征值、累加和统计特征值以及离散傅里叶变换统计特征值作为比特流特征向量参数.在HTTP、DNS、ICMP及TELNET数据集上的实验结果表明:采用本方法获得的未知协议比特流特征参数具有良好的可区分性,为进一步实现未知协议比特流聚类奠定了基础.     

多目标多火力通道云调度策略研究

在水面舰艇面对多目标饱和攻击时,对多火力通道的最佳调度是水面舰艇自防御武器系统火力分配的关键问题。本文采用云模型方法将多目标威胁判断与反导武器系统多火力通道状态相匹配,通过实时评估目标威胁等级、武器系统抗击时间和最佳抗击距离等因素,提出一种兼顾目标和火力通道实时状态的新调度策略——云调度策略,有效降低舰艇损伤程度,提高反导武器系统抗击效率和抗击质量。仿真证明,此策略可提高整体反导防御效能。     

三标度法在坦克分队最优火力分配中的应用

根据坦克分队火力分配中需要考虑的因素,构建了坦克分队火力分配方案评估指标体系。在层次分析法的基础上,使用三标度法对坦克分队火力分配方案进行优选评估,有效地避免了使用传统AHP方法构建判断矩阵时权重选择的模糊性,减少决策过程中的主观臆断,同时该方法快捷方便,提高了指挥员决策的准确性和时效性。     

双圆阵模式空间二维解相干

提出一种相干信号二维波达方向(Direction of Arrival,DOA)估计算法——模式空间波达方向矩阵(Mode-Space DOA Matrix,MS-DOAM)法。算法基于双圆阵,利用模式空间转换将圆阵转换为虚拟双平行线阵,计算虚拟线阵阵元间的互相关信息,构造两个等效协方差矩阵,进而构造波达方向矩阵,对该波达方向矩阵特征分解,利用得到的特征值与特征矢量求得入射信号的仰角和方位角。算法无需二维搜索,实现估计参数自动配对。仿真结果表明,算法在低信噪比和短快拍条件下,估计误差低于虚拟空间平移算法。