Deterrence under nuclear asymmetry: THAAD and the prospects for missile defense on the Korean peninsula

The 2016 decision to deploy Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) to South Korea has generated multitude of intensely politicized issues and has proved highly controversial. This has made it challenging to alleviate, let alone clarify, points of analytical and policy tensions. We instead disaggregate and revisit two fundamental questions. One is whether THAAD could really defend South Korea from North Korean missiles. We challenge the conventional “qualified optimism” by giving analytical primacy to three countermeasures available to defeat THAAD–use of decoys, tumbling and spiral motion, and outnumbering. These countermeasures are relatively inexpensive to create but exceedingly difficult to offset. Second, we assess the optimal way to ensure South Korean national security against North Korean missiles. By examining the balance of capability and issues of credibility/commitment, we show that the U.S. extended deterrence by punishment remains plentiful and sufficiently credible even without enhancing the current defense capability.     

Direct ink writing of 3D-Honeycombed CL-20 structures with low critical size

3D-Honeycombed CL-20 structures with low critical size of detonation have been fabricated successfully for intelligent weapon systems using a micro-flow direct ink writing (DIW) technology. The CL-20-based explosive ink for DIW technology was prepared by a two-component adhesive system with waterborne polyurethane (WPU) and ethyl cellulose (EC). Not only the preparation of the explosive ink but also the principle of DIW process have been investigated systematically. The explosive ink displayed strong shear-thinning behavior that permitted layer-by-layer deposition from a fine nozzle onto a substrate to produce complex shapes. The EC content was varied to alter the pore structure distribution and rheological behavior of ink samples after curing. The deposited explosive composite materials are of a honeycombed structure with high porosity, and the pore size distribution increases with the increase of EC content. No phase change was observed during the preparation process. Both WPU and EC show good compatibility with CL-20 particles. Apparently high activation energy was realized in the CL-20-based composite ink compared with that of the refined CL-20 due to the presence of non-energetic but stable WPU. The detonation performance of the composite materials can be precisely controlled by an adjustment in the content of binders. The 3D honeycombed CL-20 structures, which are fabricated by DIW technology, have a very small critical detonation size of less than 69 μm, as demonstrated by wedge shaped charge test. The ink can be used to create 3D structures with complex geometries not possible with traditional manufacturing techniques, which presents a bright future for the development of intelligent weapon systems.     

An approach for predicting digital material consumption in electronic warfare

Electronic warfare is a modern combat mode, in which predicting digital material consumption is a key for material requirements planning (MRP). In this paper, we introduce an insensitive loss function (ε) and propose a ε-SVR-based prediction approach. First, we quantify values of influencing factors of digital equipments in electronic warfare and a small-sample data on real consumption to form a real combat data set, and preprocess it to construct the sample space. Subsequently, we establish the ε-SVR-based prediction model based on “wartime influencing factors - material consumption” and perform model training. In case study, we give 8 historical battle events with battle damage data and predict 3 representative kinds of digital materials by using the proposed approach. The results illustrate its higher accuracy and more convenience compared with other current approaches. Taking data acquisition controller prediction as an example, our model has better prediction performance (RMSE = 0.575 7, MAPE (%) = 12.037 6 and R² = 0.996 0) compared with BP neural network model (RMSE = 1.272 9, MAPE (%) = 23.577 5 and R² = 0.980 3) and GM (1, 1) model (RMSE = 2.095 0, MAPE (%) = 24.188 0 and R² = 0.946 6). The fact shows that the approach can be used to support decision-making for MRP in electronic warfare.     

Optimal design of a novel cylindrical sandwich panel with double arrow auxetic core under air blast loading

The increasing threat of explosions on the battle field and the terrorist action requires the development of more effective blast resistance materials and structures. Curved structure can support the external loads effectively by virtue of their spatial curvature. In review of the excellent energy absorption property of auxetic structure, employing auxetic structure as core material in curved sandwich shows the potential to improve the protection performance. In this study, a novel cylindrical sandwich panel with double arrow auxetic (DAA) core was designed and the numerical model was built by ABAQUS. Due to the complexity of the structure, systematic parameter study and optimal design are conducted. Two cases of optimal design were considered, case1 focuses on reducing the deflection and mass of the structure, while case2 focuses on reducing the deflection and increasing the energy absorption per unit mass. Parameter study and optimal design were conducted based on Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHD) method, artificial neural networks (ANN) metamodel and the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-Ⅱ). The Pareto front was obtained and the cylindrical DAA structure performed much better than its equal solid panel in both blast resistance and energy absorption capacity. Optimization results can be used as a reference for different applications.     

From Westphalian Failure to Heterarchic Governance in MENA: The Case of Syria

Abstract

The problematic export of the Westphalian system to MENA is examined, taking Syria as exemplar. The export model is juxtaposed to actual non-lineal trajectories, semi-sovereignty and hybrid or failing states. This is manifested in post-uprising Syria in failing statehood, fragmented and overlapping governance, permeable and collapsing borders, the loss of sovereignty to trans-state movements, “competitive regime-building” between the Asad regime and jihadist warlords, and “competitive interventionism” by external powers filling the governance vacuum with their own proxies. The result is heterarchic zones of limited statehood in which state sovereignty is contested by both international (supra-state) penetration and sub-state fragmentation.     

一类二阶Hamilton系统周期解的存在性

Hamilton系统是非线性科学中的一个重要领域,很多人在超二次或次二次条件及其他一些条件下对Hamilton系统的周期解进行了研究。此文则研究了非自制二阶Hamilton系统在零点局部环绕及“非二次”条件下周期解的存在性,并利用局部紧性条件(C)条件以及极大极小方法证明了其周期解的存在性。     

铝合金板材相对均匀性的声-超声评价研究

基于Ritec-SNAP系统建立了声-超声技术实验系统,阐述了该实验系统的原理及应力波因子的定义,分析了在声-超声技术评价过程中用声信号的幅频特性及应力波因子表征材料相对均匀性的可行性。利用建立起来的实验系统,对铝板的相对均匀性进行了声-超声评价的实验研究。实验结果表明,用应力波因子评价铝合金板材的相对均匀性具有可行性。     

复杂作战任务弹药配备模型

多阶段任务系统(PMS)是一种典型的复杂系统,它包括多个在时间上连续且无相互重叠的基本任务,武器系统的作战过程多数属于这种复杂系统.以某作战单元的一次作战任务流程为例,详细地讨论了多阶段复杂任务系统的特点,并从基本任务阶段的系统可信性、可用度的角度出发,分析了在满足给定火力指标的前提下,建立整个复杂作战任务流程中弹药配备模型的方法.     

大气层内滚转角速度稳定动能拦截器姿态控制系统设计

针对大气层内滚转角速度稳定动能拦截器具有反应快速、耦合性强等特点,本文首先分析了传统的小扰动法设计姿控系统的优缺点,然后提出了基于极点区域配置的变增益控制系统设计方法。该方法通过在整个参数空间寻求单一李亚普诺夫函数来保证系统的全局稳定,与小扰法相比,它不仅可保证理论上的稳定,而且离散计算量小。最后的仿真表明,基于该方法设计的控制器具有良好的控制性能。     

基于变量节点串行消息传递的LDPC码译码研究

针对标准LDPC码译码中洪水消息传递机制的不足,提出以串行机制进行消息传递,按照变量节点的顺序进行消息处理和传递,对每个变量节点同时接收校验消息和发送变量消息。该方法使更新的消息能够很快进入当前迭代计算,改善了LDPC迭代译码的收敛性能。通过对几种常用译码算法的仿真比较,验证了在复杂度不增加的情况下,该方法性能优于其它几种最大后验概率准则的译码方法,且算法收敛快,是一种能较好兼顾性能与实现复杂度的译码方法。