Testing or fault-finding for reliability growth: A missile destructive-test example

A new piece of equipment has been purchased in a lot of size m. Some of the items can be used in destructive testing before the item is put into use. Testing uncovers faults which can be removed from the remaining pieces of equipment in the lot. If t < m pieces of equipment are tested, then those that remain, m₁ = m − t, have reduced fault incidence and are more reliable than initially, but m₁ may be too small to be useful, or than is desirable. In this paper models are studied to address this question: given the lot size m, how to optimize by choice of t the effectiveness of the pieces of equipment remaining after the test. The models used are simplistic and illustrative; they can be straightforwardly improved. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 44: 623–637, 1997     

产品网络化协同开发系统信息处理模型研究

产品网络协同开发系统信息处理模型是现代制造企业从事产品开发、提高企业核心竞争力的关键。在分析产品网络化协同开发系统现状的基础上,阐明了产品网络化协同开发系统的基本内涵及实现方法。提出了基于输入、输出、知识、关系、方法和时间约束六个方面组成的产品网络化协同开发系统的信息处理统一模型;建立了一个面向产品开发全过程协同的信息流模型,构建了产品网络化协同开发平台信息流模型的软件结构,为制造企业建立产品网络协同开发平台,实现产品开发过程的信息化、科学化和规范化进行了有益的工作。     

飞行器动力学环境预示技术应用研究

动力学环境试验技术已被广泛应用 ,但动力学环境预示技术还没有得到很好的重视和发展。讨论了几种动力学环境预示方法的特点 ,着重研究了统计能量分析 ( SEA)方法的原理及其应用 ,并以某型号发动机长尾喷管舱为例 ,具体给出其工程分析估计过程     

The impact of exponential smoothing forecasts on the bullwhip effect

An important phenomenon often observed in supply chain management, known as the bullwhip effect, implies that demand variability increases as one moves up the supply chain, i.e., as one moves away from customer demand. In this paper we quantify this effect for simple, two‐stage, supply chains consisting of a single retailer and a single manufacturer. We demonstrate that the use of an exponential smoothing forecast by the retailer can cause the bullwhip effect and contrast these results with the increase in variability due to the use of a moving average forecast. We consider two types of demand processes, a correlated demand process and a demand process with a linear trend. We then discuss several important managerial insights that can be drawn from this research. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 269–286, 2000     

采用随机几何工具的终端直通通信接入控制方法

针对现有具备终端直通（Device-to-Device, D2D）功能的蜂窝网络的干扰管理问题,提出一种新型的采用随机几何工具的D2D通信接入控制方法。利用随机过程理论以及随机几何工具建立模型分析邻近基站和D2D通信对蜂窝通信的影响,并推导蜂窝业务接入失败概率表达式。基于该表达式能够计算网络允许的最大D2D用户密度,辅助D2D通信接入控制实现干扰管理。仿真证明基于所提数值计算方法获得的估计结果与蒙特卡洛仿真结果相符,且通过合理限制D2D用户密度和D2D用户发射功率可满足指定的蜂窝业务接入失败概率要求。     

Optimal policies for stochastic clearing systems with time-dependent delay penalties

We study stochastic clearing systems with a discrete-time Markovian input process, and an output mechanism that intermittently and instantaneously clears the system partially or completely. The decision to clear the system depends on both quantities and delays of outstanding inputs. Clearing the system incurs a fixed cost, and outstanding inputs are charged a delay penalty, which is a general increasing function of the quantities and delays of individual inputs. By recording the quantities and delays of outstanding inputs in a sequence, we model the clearing system as a tree-structured Markov decision process over both a finite and infinite horizon. We show that the optimal clearing policies, under realistic conditions, are of the on-off type or the threshold type. Based on the characterization of the optimal policies, we develop efficient algorithms to compute parameters of the optimal policies for such complex clearing systems for the first time. We conduct a numerical analysis on the impact of the nonlinear delay penalty cost function, the comparison of the optimal policy and the classical hybrid policy (ie, quantity and age thresholds), and the impact of the state of the input process. Our experiments demonstrate that (a) the classical linear approximation of the cost function can lead to significant performance differences; (b) the classical hybrid policy may perform poorly (as compared to the optimal policies); and (c) the consideration of the state of the input process makes significant improvement in system performance.     

基于灰色聚类的管道电伴热系统安全评价

虽然管道电伴热系统在国防工业领域有着十分广泛的应用,但在实际使用过程中也经常会出现各种问题.本文针对管道电伴热系统安全性的评价问题,在分析总结管道电伴热系统常见故障的基础上,从系统设计、安装施工、电气连接与操作使用4个方面,选取17个影响因素构建管道电伴热系统安全评价指标体系,通过改进层次分析法计算得到各方案层的权重值...     

作战过程设计策略及其优选模型

组织设计通常包括三个流程即任务环境分析、过程设计和结构设计.作战过程设计是以其环境分析为基础,以其结构设计为目的,最终解决作战组织资源、平台、信息和决策的最优"合纵"和"连横"问题.尝试将C2(Command Control)组织的有关设计理论映射到作战组织设计,根据组织的演化过程机理,采用基于Bayes网络的方法,对作战组织进行过程设计,并对其设计策略进行优选,最后给出一个案例并加以验证.结果表明:采用动态Bayes网络的方法研究组织过程设计可行,其设计策略及优选模型合理.     

基于模糊综合评判的地空导弹阵地选择

在现代防空中,由于精确制导技术在空袭兵器当中的运用,使防空作战中兵力机动显得格外重要.为实现机动作战,阵地选择就成为机动作战中的重要环节.运用模糊数学原理和方法,结合地空导弹部队阵地选择的特点,给出了阵地选择评价因素指标体系,建立了阵地选择方案的二级模糊综合评判模型,并采用层次分析法(AHP)对阵地选择评价因素的权重进行了确定,最终得出阵地选择合理的评价结果.     

固体燃料冲压发动机飞行性能分析

固体燃料冲压发动机性能通过进气道与导弹飞行工况关联在一起,其工作过程需考虑导弹飞行参数对发动机性能的影响。与其它冲压发动机相比,固体燃料冲压发动机一个显著特点是推进剂燃烧过程不仅与推进剂配方、发动机结构和燃烧室压强有关,还取决于燃烧室入口空气参数,因此工作过程较为复杂。在国内首次建立固体燃料冲压发动机工作过程仿真模型,并分析导弹飞行马赫数和高度对发动机性能的影响规律。