Choosing arrival process models for service systems: Tests of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process

Service systems such as call centers and hospital emergency rooms typically have strongly time‐varying arrival rates. Thus, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) is a natural model for the arrival process in a queueing model for performance analysis. Nevertheless, it is important to perform statistical tests with service system data to confirm that an NHPP is actually appropriate, as emphasized by Brown et al. [8]. They suggested a specific statistical test based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) statistic after exploiting the conditional‐uniform (CU) property to transform the NHPP into a sequence of i.i.d. random variables uniformly distributed on [0,1] and then performing a logarithmic transformation of the data. We investigate why it is important to perform the final data transformation and consider what form it should take. We conduct extensive simulation experiments to study the power of these alternative statistical tests. We conclude that the general approach of Brown et al. [8] is excellent, but that an alternative data transformation proposed by Lewis [22], drawing upon Durbin [10], produces a test of an NHPP test with consistently greater power. We also conclude that the KS test after the CU transformation, without any additional data transformation, tends to be best to test against alternative hypotheses that primarily differ from an NHPP only through stochastic and time dependence. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 66–90, 2014     

Power series expansions for the distribution and mean value function of a geometric process with Weibull interarrival times

The geometric process is considered when the distribution of the first interarrival time is assumed to be Weibull. Its one‐dimensional probability distribution is derived as a power series expansion of the convolution of the Weibull distributions. Further, the mean value function is expanded into a power series using an integral equation. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 61: 599–603, 2014     

Counterinsurgency American style: Considering David Petraeus and twenty-first century irregular war

This article examines the complex legacy of David Petraeus who was a key figure in the emergence of the US military shift towards counterinsurgency doctrine in the years after 2006. Although Petraeus has been perceived by critics as a publicity seeker, he can be credited with laying the foundations for a more serious commitment to COIN involving in particular in integrating conventional and Special Forces in arenas like village stability operations. The article looks a Petraeus's role in both Iraq and Afghanistan: it concludes that, in the case of Afghanistan, it is too early to assess whether counterinsurgency has had a decisive impact of the outcome of the war against the Taliban.     

顾及时空语义的多主题瓦片数据优化检索方法

针对虚拟地球可视化中多个逻辑图层叠加产生大量同名瓦片索引重叠引起的数据无效访问和内存冗余等问题,提出顾及时空语义的瓦片数据优化检索方法。在客户端实现顾及时空语义的自适应瓦片优选,将视点信息与数据集的时空范围、分辨率和优先级等语义信息自动匹配与自适应筛选过滤,显著提高目标瓦片数据的命中率;在服务器端实现面向主题的内存数据库瓦片数据缓存,进一步提高瓦片数据二次访问的响应速度。实验表明,该方法不受逻辑图层增量影响,保证目标瓦片较高的命中率,缓存方法进一步提升瓦片二次访问效率,显著提高面向多数据集的海量数据实时可视化性能。     

基于旋量方法的高超声速飞行器三维非线性伪最优制导律设计

针对高超声速飞行器制导过程中的通道耦合问题,设计一种基于旋量方法的三维非线性伪最优制导律。引入角度矢量、视线旋量、视线旋量速度等概念,通过等价性证明,得出视线旋量、视线旋量速度控制分别与视线方位、视线角速度控制具有一致性的结论,从而将制导问题转化为视线旋量和旋量速度的控制问题;基于旋量方法构建弹目视线旋量、视线旋量速度模型,构建得到飞行器制导的三维非线性模型;为避免直接求解Riccati微分方程过程的复杂性,引入伪控制变量,将三维非线性制导模型转化为线性制导模型;分别针对无终端约束和有终端约束情况,基于二次型最优方法得到三维非线性伪最优制导律。该制导律避免了通道解耦,其制导参数又满足一定物理意义下的最优性。仿真结果验证了所设计制导律的有效性。     

考虑弹体动态特性的机动效率约束导引律

针对考虑交会角和过载约束导引律在大机动时能量损失大的问题,提出一种考虑导弹机动效率的多约束制导律。应用最优二次型原理推导出考虑一阶弹体延迟的时变导引系数闭环次优制导形式,将导弹机动时刻阻力系数引入时变权系数,并通过迭代确定机动效率约束边界。将时变约束表示成剩余时间与弹体延迟时间的函数,代入制导指令,进行弹道仿真。结果表明,对于常值与机动目标,文中制导律与过载约束导引律同只考虑交会角约束的导引律相比,对目标均能实现末端弹道成型要求,而考虑机动效率的制导指令分配更为合理,在避免指令加速度饱和的同时有效降低了拦截末端速度损耗,提高制导精度与毁伤效果。且该制导律中时变权系数无须配平求解,在保证精度的同时极大地提高了迭代速度。     

两级滤波结构的导航卫星天线阵抗干扰算法

干扰和多径是影响接收机导航定位性能的两个主要因素。针对卫星导航接收机的抗干扰问题,提出了一种基于两级滤波结构的卫星导航天线阵抗干扰算法。第一级滤波采用功率倒置算法抑制干扰,通过相关解扩提高卫星信号的信噪比,并估计出其空间特征矢量。第二级滤波用估计得到的卫星信号空间特征矢量对第一级滤波输出信号进行加权处理,从而形成指向卫星信号方向的主波束来进一步提高信噪比。仿真结果表明,该算法的性能明显优于功率倒置算法,且非常接近传统的波束形成算法,不需要阵列校正以及姿态测量单元辅助,其实现代价远小于传统的波束形成算法。     

液态聚硅烷高温高压合成聚碳硅烷工艺研究

以聚二甲基硅烷裂解制备的液态聚硅烷(LPS)为原料,在高压釜内高温高压反应制备了聚碳硅烷(PCS)先驱体,研究了合成条件对反应终压、Si H键含量、产物产率、软化点、分子量分布及可纺性的影响。研究表明,随着反应温度的提高、反应时间的延长,反应终压逐渐增大,产物的分子量与软化点增高,但同时分子量的分散性增大,使可纺性变差。当LPS在高压釜内460℃下反应3～4h,或450℃下反应6～7h时,可以制得软化点约为210～230℃的PCS,其高分子部分含量约5wt%～10wt%,Si H键含量大于0.9,可纺性较好,适合于制备SiC纤维。     

对高重频PD雷达的舍脉冲干扰

高重频PD雷达是为解决测速模糊而在机载雷达中广泛采用的一种PD雷达工作模式,从PD雷达的特性来讲,由于带宽比较窄使得噪声干扰能量利用效率不是很高。采用DRFM精确获取雷达信号实施干扰是当前干扰的发展方向,但是对占空比接近50%的高重频PD雷达,采用对低重频PD及中重频PD可行的距离拖引,速度拖引等一系列在雷达信号脉冲串间隔内产生复杂调制的干扰方法是不合适的。主要针对高重频PD雷达重频高、占空比大的特点,提出了一种舍脉冲干扰方法,对DRFM截获的雷达信号进行快速部分转发,间隔一定脉冲数舍弃一个脉冲,改变原雷达信号的脉冲重复周期,使得在频域上产生多个速度欺骗性干扰信号,并通过仿真验证了干扰的有效性。     

基于TOPSIS的战区高层反导威胁评估

在分析战区高层反导威胁评估特点的基础上,建立了以来袭TBM发射点、预测落点、射程等为核心的战区高层反导威胁评估模型指标体系并进行了相应的量化,然后利用基于熵值权重确定的TOPSIS理论对模型进行求解。通过实例证明所提出的战区高层反导威胁评估模型和算法的有效性,对研究美军的战区高层反导武器系统具有一定的借鉴意义。