航天测控系统任务可靠性分析的EOOPN模型

提出了一种可用于航天测控系统任务可靠性分析的扩展面向对象Petri网（extend object-oriented Petri nets, EOOPN）模型,旨在对给定的航天测控方案进行可靠性评估分析。针对问题特点明确了OOPN扩展思路,给出了EOOPN模型的形式化定义、运行规则和建模步骤,模型通过引入公共库所、激发弧、消息变迁和消息处理函数等概念,体现了面向对象的思想,具有很好的层次性和模块性。所建立的EOOPN模型能够完整的描述航天测控系统的组成和任务特点。通过对算例模型仿真运行,表明实验结果具有良好收敛性,与Markov解析值对比误差在1%以内,从而验证了模型的有效性。     

弹丸对钢管混凝土结构冲击效应的数值模拟

为将模块化设计钢管混凝土结构用于防御工事的构建,进行20 mm口径弹丸垂直侵彻混凝土结构和不同钢管混凝土结构的数值模拟,对比不同结构的抗冲击性能,分析钢管混凝土结构抗冲击性能提高的机理.结果表明,正六边形钢管混凝土结构抗冲击性能良好,兼容了金属和混凝土材料的优点,克服了混凝土材料的脆性以及金属材料容易发生局部屈曲的缺点,为防御工事结构的改进提供了理论基础和参考依据.     

基于搜索论的远程反舰导弹搜捕概率建模方法

针对传统捕捉概率模型难以满足远程反舰导弹机动搜捕概率建模计算的问题,提出利用搜索论进行导弹机动搜捕概率计算的建模方法。该方法根据目标机动规律建立其分布概率密度函数,并依据末制导雷达发现目标概率的"倒四次方律"及弹目相对运动轨迹,构建其探测函数,通过求取两者之积的积分实现搜捕概率计算。计算结果显示:若远程反舰导弹不采取机动搜捕策略,目标指示误差增加1km时搜捕概率降低0.47,目标速度增加10节时搜捕概率降低0.3,末制导雷达搜索半径减小50%时搜捕概率降低0.3;若采取平行搜捕策略,上述因素对其影响大幅下降。可见,该方法综合考虑了目标机动规律、传感器探测规律、导弹搜捕策略,可实现远程反舰导弹机动搜捕概率的解算。     

NCO相位截断对频域抗干扰性能影响分析

频域抗干扰易于工程实现、窄带干扰抑制性能好,是目前全球卫星导航系统(Global Navigation Satellite System,GNSS)抗干扰接收机中广泛采用的抗干扰算法。频域抗干扰接收机普遍采用数控振荡器(numerically controlled oscillator, NCO)生成本振信号。由于硬件约束,通常需要对NCO进行相位截断。而NCO相位截断是否合理对抗干扰性能影响较大。针对该问题,从NCO相位截断导致的本振杂散着手,从理论上分析其对混频和频域抗干扰环节的影响。在此基础上,给出一种NCO查找表地址位宽的理论计算模型,使得接收机的载噪比损耗接近无NCO相位截断的频域抗干扰接收机。仿真表明,抑制带宽大于100kHz、干信比小于80dBc的窄带干扰时,计算的NCO查找表地址位宽不超过10bit。无NCO相位截断的频域抗干扰接收机相比,采用NCO混频的抗干扰接收机的载噪比损耗最多增加0.6dB。     

Book review

La Conversion économique du secteur militaire, J. FONTANEL, Economica, Paris, 1994, pp. 112. Paperback. ISBN 2–7178–2650–5.     

THE REGIONAL ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF MILITARY BASE REALIGNMENTS AND CLOSURES IN GERMANY

We identify the causal effect of a reduction in military personnel on a number of socioeconomic indicators within the peripheries of military bases. The base realignments and closures in Germany are used as an exogenous source of variation that allows us to identify the effect of a demand shock on household income, output, unemployment, and tax revenue within a specified buffer zone around each base. The analysis covers 298 communities for the period 2003–2007. Consistent with evidence found elsewhere, we find that these base adjustments have only a marginal impact on the local community in which the bases are located.     

Two novel critical shock models based on Markov renewal processes

In this paper, we investigate systems subject to random shocks that are classified into critical and noncritical categories, and develop two novel critical shock models. Classical extreme shock models and run shock models are special cases of our developed models. The system fails when the total number of critical shocks reaches a predetermined threshold, or when the system stays in an environment that induces critical shocks for a preset threshold time, corresponding to failure mechanisms of the developed two critical shock models respectively. Markov renewal processes are employed to capture the magnitude and interarrival time dependency of environment-induced shocks. Explicit formulas for systems under the two critical shock models are derived, including the reliability function, the mean time to failure and so on. Furthermore, the two critical shock models are extended to the random threshold case and the integrated case where formulas of the reliability indexes of the systems are provided. Finally, a case study of a lithium-ion battery system is conducted to illustrate the proposed models and the obtained results.     

Controllable combustion behaviors of the laser-controlled solid propellant

Microsatellites have been widely applied in the fields of communication,remote sensing,navigation and science exploration due to its characteristics of low cost,flexible launch mode and short development period.However,conventional solid-propellant have difficulties in starting and interrupting combustion because combustion is autonomously sustained after ignition.Herein,we proposed a new type of solid-propellant named laser-controlled solid propellant,which is sensitive to laser irradiation and can be started or interrupted by switching on/off the continuous wave laser.To demonstrate the feasibility and investigate the controllable combustion behaviors under different laser on/off conditions,the combus-tion parameters including burning rate,ignition delay time and platform pressure were tested using pressure sensor,high-speed camera and thermographic camera.The results showed that the increase of laser-on or laser-off duration both will lead to the decrease of propellant combustion performance during re-ignition and re-combustion process.This is mainly attributed to the laser attenuation caused by the accumulation of combustion residue and the change of chamber ambient temperature.Simultaneously,the multiple ignition tests revealed that the increased chamber ambient temperature after combustion can make up for the energy loss of laser attenuation and expansion of chamber cavity.However,the laser-controlled combustion performance of solid propellant displayed a decrease trend with the addi-tion of ignition times.Nevertheless,the results still exhibited good laser-controlled agility of laser-controlled solid propellant and manifested its inspiring potential in many aspects of space missions.     

化工园区远程供水系统的应用研究

化工园区一直是大型和超大型火灾的高发地,而这些地方一旦发生火灾,很难在短时间内扑灭,这就需要灭火现场有充足的水源供灭火设备使用。在化工园区火灾案例分析基础上,对远程供水系统作了简要介绍,结合安徽八一化工厂案例,对远程供水系统在具体应用中水源选取、流量选择等内容进行了分析,并分析了输水过程中的水压损失,为远程供水系统在化工园区的选择和应用提供了理论帮助。     

Sequential learning versus no learning in Bayesian regression models

We consider two regression models: linear and logistic. The dependent variable is observed periodically and in each period a Bayesian formulation is used to generate updated forecasts of the dependent variable as new data is observed. One would expect that including new data in the Bayesian updates results in improved forecasts over not including the new data. Our findings indicate that this is not always true. We show there exists a subset of the independent variable space that we call the “region of no learning.” If the independent variable values for a given period in the future are in this region, then the forecast does not change with any new data. Moreover, if the independent variable values are in a neighborhood of the region of no learning, then there may be little benefit to wait for the new data and update the forecast. We propose a statistical approach to characterize this neighborhood which we call the “region of little learning.” Our results provide insights into the trade‐offs that exist in situations when the decision maker has an incentive to make an early decision based on an early forecast versus waiting to make a later decision based on an updated forecast. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 532–548, 2014