长贮过程中发动机HTPB推进剂老化机理分析

为揭示固体推进剂在长期贮存过程中的老化机理,解剖了自然贮存19年贴壁浇注的端羟基聚丁二烯橡胶推进剂装药发动机,沿着药柱径向不同位置进行了取样,并采用扫描电镜、能量色散X射线光谱仪、红外吸收光谱、交联密度等多种手段对这些样品进行了测试分析。研究发现：贴壁浇注发动机药柱不同位置推进剂的老化程度不尽相同,越靠近非金属壳体位置,推进剂的老化程度越严重。进一步深入分析表明：除了丁羟胶中双键的氧化断链和端羟基的缩合等影响推进剂老化,铝粉氧化产生的铝离子会催化丁羟胶双键与氯气或水发生加成反应生成■双键和仲醇,而铝离子迁移和分布的不均匀会引起药柱老化的不均匀性。研究结果对推进剂配方设计和防老化措施的研究具有重要意义。     

基于步进加速寿命试验的制导弹药储存寿命评估

介绍步进应力加速寿命试验原理,通过对制导弹药自动导引头贮存状态和失效机理的分析,确定了加速寿命试验应力和应力水平．假设产品寿命服从威布尔分布,应用极大似然估计和Bayes的方法处理数据,建立制导弹药可靠储存寿命预测模型,并计算得到自动导引头在正常应力水平下的可靠储存寿命．     

耐海水高耐候丙烯酸树脂的合成及面漆性能分析

为合成耐海水与高耐候的丙烯酸树脂,选择甲基丙烯酸甲酯、甲基丙烯酸羟丁酯、丙烯酸异辛酯和丙烯酸已内酯,经引发剂作用,采用同步滴加法进行聚合反应,通过调节温度并测定酸价控制反应历程,并将合成的不同玻璃化温度的丙烯酸树脂配制成具有适当玻璃化温度梯度的耐海水面漆成膜树脂体系。选择HDT-90固化剂与丙烯酸成膜树脂作用,制备耐海水面漆涂层样品。性能测试结果表明,研制的耐海水面漆具有优良的耐候性和抗老化性。     

Transverse relaxation characteristic and stress relaxation model considering molecular chains of HTPB coating based on pre-strained thermal aging

In order to accurately describe the transverse relaxation characteristic and stress relaxation modulus of HTPB coating during pre-strain thermal aging process, a one month thermal aging test was carried out at 70 C with pre-strain of 0％, 3％, 6％ and 9％, respectively. The low-field 1H NMR and stress relaxation modulus tests were carried out for HTPB coating at different aging stages. The stress relaxation model considering the molecular chains was proposed according to the changes of crosslinking chain and dangling chain of HTPB coating during pre-strain aging. The results showed that with the increase of aging time, the decay rate of transverse relaxation curve became faster, the transverse relaxation time decreased, the value of combined parameter qMrl increased, the proportion of crosslinking chain decreased, while the proportion of dangling chain increased. Moreover, the stress relaxation modulus increased, the crosslinking network structure of HTPB coating became denser and the degree of cross-linking increased. At the initial aging stage, the pre-strain will destroy the crosslinking network structure of HTPB coating to a certain extent. With the increase of aging time, the effect of pre-strain will gradually weaken and the influence of aging on materials will gradually increase. The correlations between the stress relaxation model considering the molecular chains and the test results were more than 0.9950, which can accurately describe the stress relaxation modulus of HTPB coating during the pre-strain thermal aging process.     

A new experimental way for the monitoring of the real/equivalent in-service-time of double base rocket propellant by coupling VST and PCA

The assessment of the real in-service-time(RIST)and the equivalent in-service-time(EIST)of double base rocket propellants(DBRPs)is of utmost importance for the safe storage and use of weapon systems as well as the efficiency of the accelerated aging plans.In this work,four DBRPs with similar chemical composition and different natural aging have been artificially aged at T = 338.65 K for 4 months with sampling every 30 days.The unaged and artificially aged samples have been investigated by vacuum stability test(VST)at five isothermal temperatures(T = 333.15 K,343.15 K,353.15 K,363.15 K,and 373.15 K).The volume of the evolved gases in VST was found to decrease with natural/artificial aging.Furthermore,the VST data were treated and subjected to principal component analysis(PCA).The results showed excellent discrimination of the DBRP samples according to their stability thermal properties.Most of the variance was described by the first principal component(PC1)whose scores were linearly correlated with the natural aging durations when PCA is applied on VST data obtained at T = 363.15 K.In light of the obtained results,a new experimental way for the estimation of the real/equivalent IST was proposed,which takes into account the impact of the natural aging of the sample.The approach predicts successfully the RIST of two similar DBRPs with a relative deviation of less than 2％.At the specific heating temperature T = 338.65 K,the developed model provides more conceivable EIST values,with asymptotic behavior against artificial aging duration evolution,thus overcoming some shortcomings of the common generalized van't Hoff formula(GvH).     

On the median residual lifetime and its aging properties: A characterization theorem and applications

This paper is devoted to study several aspects of the median residual life function (MERLF). In reliability studies, it is well known that, although the MERLF have several advantages over the mean residual life function (MRLF), the MRLF has the good property of uniquely determine a life distribution whereas either the median residual life function (MERLF) or an α‐percentile residual life do not have such good property. We shall give a characterization result where knowledge of both the MERLF and the survival function on an interval does uniquely determine the distribution. Moreover, in order to apply this characterization in practical situations, we propose a method to estimate the necessary information of the survival function. Relationships between analytical properties of the survival function and its associated MERLF are also obtained. Bryson and Siddiqui [J Am Statist Assoc 64 (1969), 1472–1483] proved relationships among seven criteria for aging, out of which two contained the MRLF (decreasing MRLF and net decreasing MRLF). In this paper, we prove that the same pattern of relationships holds if the MRLF is replaced by the MERLF. We also examine the aging criteria corresponding to an increasing MERLF and show that there is no relation between the behavior (increasing or decreasing) of the MERLF and of the MRLF. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2005     

Design of accelerated life testing plans under multiple stresses

Accelerated life testing (ALT) using multiple stresses is commonly used in practice to resemble the operating stresses at normal operating conditions and obtain failure observations in a much shorter time. However, to date, there is little research into the theory of planning ALT for reliability estimation with multiple stresses. ALT with multiple stresses can result in a large number of stress‐level combinations which presents a challenge for implementation. In this article, we propose an approach for the design of ALT plans with multiple stresses and formulate multistress test plans based on different objectives and practical constraints. We develop a simulated annealing algorithm to efficiently determine the testing plan parameters. We demonstrate the proposed method with examples based on an actual test conducted using three stress types. The obtained optimal test plans are compared with those based on fractional factorial design. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 60: 468–478, 2013     

高速铁路网络延误传播分析

针对既有方法研究高速铁路网络中延误传播规律的局限性,基于高速列车实绩运行数据和列车时刻表数据构建站点延误传播贝叶斯网络模型。结合复杂网络中的渗流理论研究延误传播团簇的演变规律,并以最大延误传播团簇中的南京南站和第二大延误传播团簇中的长沙南站为例,分析处于渗流突变状态下的站点延误传播贝叶斯网络。提出基于核心延误传播团簇的站点延误状态预测模型。结果表明：网络中的站点可按延误传播特征分为延误发散站点、延误传递站点和延误消散站点。延误发散站点不仅能直接将延误传播至邻近站点,还能通过延误传播链将延误传播至较远地区的站点。由此网络以部分延误发散站点为中心向延误传递站点和延误消散站点进行“辐射式”延误传播。     

基于多目标参数的液压设备恒定应力加速寿命试验设计

在液压设备恒定应力加速寿命试验中,针对应力的加载方式引起的热冲击和单目标参数带来的分析精度问题,设计了基于多目标参数的液压设备恒定应力加速寿命试验.首先,利用Burr XII型分布建立恒定应力加速寿命试验的数学模型,并以试验产品分位寿命的渐近方差加权和最小为目标,计算出试验最优的低应力水平以及产品在低应力水平和高应力水平上的最佳分配比例;其次,计算出模型参数的置信区间并对模型参数进行敏感性分析;最后,以某液压产品为实例进行分析.结果表明:该试验有助于提高液压产品可靠性分析的精度.     

Development programs for one‐shot systems using multiple‐state design reliability models

Design reliability at the beginning of a product development program is typically low, and development costs can account for a large proportion of total product cost. We consider how to conduct development programs (series of tests and redesigns) for one‐shot systems (which are destroyed at first use or during testing). In rough terms, our aim is to both achieve high final design reliability and spend as little of a fixed budget as possible on development. We employ multiple‐state reliability models. Dynamic programming is used to identify a best test‐and‐redesign strategy and is shown to be presently computationally feasible for at least 5‐state models. Our analysis is flexible enough to allow for the accelerated stress testing needed in the case of ultra‐high reliability requirements, where testing otherwise provides little information on design reliability change. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004