消防应急与日常照明两用灯的设计

在分析解决关键技术问题的基础上,研究设计了一种可用于日常照明的新型消防应急照明灯。这种新型消防应急照明灯解决了消防应急照明与民用照明的兼容性问题,从而使数以百万计长期备而不用的资源得到充分应用,避免了资源的重复配置;也解决了消防应急照明灯存在不能及时发现故障并检测维修的问题。     

Min-max 模糊 Hopfield 网络的一个基于容错性的学习算法

在一定的条件下证明了Min－max模糊Hopfield网络吸引子的吸引域随着连接权矩阵的减小而增大，在此基础上，设计了一个基于容错性的学习算法。在一定的意义下，用该学习算法得到的矩阵最小，从而此时系统具有最优容错性。最后用实例验证了结论。     

Safety in international security: a view point from the practice of accident investigation

While security points to a deliberate harming of humans and/or the environment, safety refers to unintended damage. In this view point, I will analyse how the distinction between safety and security matters in the practice of accident investigation and I will argue that the division between the fields is problematic for the assessment of security-related safety risks. Drawing on the case of the our accident investigation into the downing of flight MH17 above Ukraine in 2014, I highlight key dilemmas the Dutch Safety Board dealt with.     

发达国家突发公共事件应急管理对我国的启示

从应急管理理念、应急力量整合、应急法律制度和应对计划、社会参与、应急资源保障、人才培养体系、应急组织机构、联合应急方式等八个方面归纳总结了发达国家应急管理的共同特点,从突发公共事件应急组织体系、应急管理模式、整合信息资源、联合应急方式、应急保障、纲领性的公共突发事件应急管理基本法和应急计划等六个方面分析了我国突发公共事件应急管理方面存在的不足,并提出了改进的措施。     

船舶横甩吸引域的数值研究

建立了某型船在船体水动力和螺旋桨推力和自动舵作用下考虑波浪激励力和二阶定常漂移力时的非线性艏摇运动微分方程模型 ,以船速、船波偏角和自动舵参数为变参数 ,运用数值积分和胞映射分析相结合的方法 ,研究了随浪中船舶的横甩吸引域 .     

可生存技术及其实现框架研究

提出用多样化动态漂移的技术途径实现网络生存设计的方法。分析该技术对网络安全、网络生存的影响 ,并给出了该技术的体系框架。指出这个研究具有前瞻性、全面性和实际性的特色     

A model of supply-chain decisions for resource sharing with an application to ventilator allocation to combat COVID-19

We present a stochastic optimization model for allocating and sharing a critical resource in the case of a pandemic. The demand for different entities peaks at different times, and an initial inventory for a central agency are to be allocated. The entities (states) may share the critical resource with a different state under a risk-averse condition. The model is applied to study the allocation of ventilator inventory in the COVID-19 pandemic by FEMA to different U.S. states. Findings suggest that if less than 60% of the ventilator inventory is available for non-COVID-19 patients, FEMA's stockpile of 20 000 ventilators (as of March 23, 2020) would be nearly adequate to meet the projected needs in slightly above average demand scenarios. However, when more than 75% of the available ventilator inventory must be reserved for non-COVID-19 patients, various degrees of shortfall are expected. In a severe case, where the demand is concentrated in the top-most quartile of the forecast confidence interval and states are not willing to share their stockpile of ventilators, the total shortfall over the planning horizon (until May 31, 2020) is about 232 000 ventilator days, with a peak shortfall of 17 200 ventilators on April 19, 2020. Results are also reported for a worst-case where the demand is at the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval. An important finding of this study is that a central agency (FEMA) can act as a coordinator for sharing critical resources that are in short supply over time to add efficiency in the system. Moreover, through properly managing risk-aversion of different entities (states) additional efficiency can be gained. An additional implication is that ramping up production early in the planning cycle allows to reduce shortfall significantly. An optimal timing of this production ramp-up consideration can be based on a cost-benefit analysis.     

潜艇应急上浮六自由度运动及黏性流场数值模拟

为揭示潜艇应急上浮过程中的强非线性运动及水动力作用规律,基于RANS方程及流体体积模型,针对Suboff标模建立了潜艇应急上浮数值预报方法。通过开展不同纵倾攻角及斜航漂角下全附体模型的水动力计算,验证了该计算方法的有效性,确定了其适用范围,进而结合整体动网格技术模拟了潜艇的应急上浮过程,获得了艇体六自由度运动的时历参数及流场细节信息。数值模拟结果表明该方法能够较合理地描述潜艇上浮的运动规律,也证明了该方法在潜艇上浮多自由度运动及水动力性能研究中的潜力和适用性。     

论口岸突发事件应急处置措施的扩张性

国家对外开放口岸容易发生各种各样的突发事件。边检机关在处置口岸突发事件时,应急处置措施的作用对象、使用强度、持续时间、法律依据等方面相对于常规状态都发生了明显扩张。论述了口岸突发事件应急处置措施的扩张性,分析口岸突发事件应急处置措施扩张的现实基础,总结口岸突发事件应急处置措施扩张的内容,以利于执法部门正确行使应急处置措施。     

A ‘transparent gold’ rush?

Abstract

The signing of a new treaty on the equitable sharing of the Nile waters – signed last May in Kampala by Rwanda, Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania – has the potential of derailing relations with Sudan and Egypt. According to the latter countries, this new agreement replaces the 1959 Nile agreement – that awarded them with 90 per cent control over the Nile water – giving other Nile Basin countries the possibility to implement water-related projects in agriculture and energy. This new development, according to Egypt and Sudan, places their water level security in jeopardy. Furthermore, the use of land grabs and water consumption for food security by wealthy foreign countries contributes to the sensitive situation the nine Nile Basin countries are now facing. Water is a red line when it comes to Egypt and Sudan and the future of the whole region depends on whether this line will be crossed.