发达国家突发公共事件应急管理对我国的启示

从应急管理理念、应急力量整合、应急法律制度和应对计划、社会参与、应急资源保障、人才培养体系、应急组织机构、联合应急方式等八个方面归纳总结了发达国家应急管理的共同特点,从突发公共事件应急组织体系、应急管理模式、整合信息资源、联合应急方式、应急保障、纲领性的公共突发事件应急管理基本法和应急计划等六个方面分析了我国突发公共事件应急管理方面存在的不足,并提出了改进的措施。     

A model of supply-chain decisions for resource sharing with an application to ventilator allocation to combat COVID-19

We present a stochastic optimization model for allocating and sharing a critical resource in the case of a pandemic. The demand for different entities peaks at different times, and an initial inventory for a central agency are to be allocated. The entities (states) may share the critical resource with a different state under a risk-averse condition. The model is applied to study the allocation of ventilator inventory in the COVID-19 pandemic by FEMA to different U.S. states. Findings suggest that if less than 60% of the ventilator inventory is available for non-COVID-19 patients, FEMA's stockpile of 20 000 ventilators (as of March 23, 2020) would be nearly adequate to meet the projected needs in slightly above average demand scenarios. However, when more than 75% of the available ventilator inventory must be reserved for non-COVID-19 patients, various degrees of shortfall are expected. In a severe case, where the demand is concentrated in the top-most quartile of the forecast confidence interval and states are not willing to share their stockpile of ventilators, the total shortfall over the planning horizon (until May 31, 2020) is about 232 000 ventilator days, with a peak shortfall of 17 200 ventilators on April 19, 2020. Results are also reported for a worst-case where the demand is at the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval. An important finding of this study is that a central agency (FEMA) can act as a coordinator for sharing critical resources that are in short supply over time to add efficiency in the system. Moreover, through properly managing risk-aversion of different entities (states) additional efficiency can be gained. An additional implication is that ramping up production early in the planning cycle allows to reduce shortfall significantly. An optimal timing of this production ramp-up consideration can be based on a cost-benefit analysis.     

潜艇应急上浮六自由度运动及黏性流场数值模拟

为揭示潜艇应急上浮过程中的强非线性运动及水动力作用规律,基于RANS方程及流体体积模型,针对Suboff标模建立了潜艇应急上浮数值预报方法。通过开展不同纵倾攻角及斜航漂角下全附体模型的水动力计算,验证了该计算方法的有效性,确定了其适用范围,进而结合整体动网格技术模拟了潜艇的应急上浮过程,获得了艇体六自由度运动的时历参数及流场细节信息。数值模拟结果表明该方法能够较合理地描述潜艇上浮的运动规律,也证明了该方法在潜艇上浮多自由度运动及水动力性能研究中的潜力和适用性。     

论口岸突发事件应急处置措施的扩张性

国家对外开放口岸容易发生各种各样的突发事件。边检机关在处置口岸突发事件时,应急处置措施的作用对象、使用强度、持续时间、法律依据等方面相对于常规状态都发生了明显扩张。论述了口岸突发事件应急处置措施的扩张性,分析口岸突发事件应急处置措施扩张的现实基础,总结口岸突发事件应急处置措施扩张的内容,以利于执法部门正确行使应急处置措施。     

A ‘transparent gold’ rush?

Abstract

The signing of a new treaty on the equitable sharing of the Nile waters – signed last May in Kampala by Rwanda, Ethiopia, Uganda and Tanzania – has the potential of derailing relations with Sudan and Egypt. According to the latter countries, this new agreement replaces the 1959 Nile agreement – that awarded them with 90 per cent control over the Nile water – giving other Nile Basin countries the possibility to implement water-related projects in agriculture and energy. This new development, according to Egypt and Sudan, places their water level security in jeopardy. Furthermore, the use of land grabs and water consumption for food security by wealthy foreign countries contributes to the sensitive situation the nine Nile Basin countries are now facing. Water is a red line when it comes to Egypt and Sudan and the future of the whole region depends on whether this line will be crossed.     

应急辅助定位及精度评估方法研究

在可视导航卫星数少于四颗、无法进行传统导航解算的恶劣环境下,导航接收机可利用外部高程气压计提供的高程或者内部守时模块的钟差等信息进行应急辅助定位。在该应急辅助定位工作模式的误差分析中,传统导航定位误差传递模型无法适用。针对此问题,本文在研究三星结合高程、三星结合钟差、双星结合高程钟差等几种应急辅助定位原理的基础上,给出了新的应急辅助定位误差传递的分析模型,利用仿真算例验证了该模型的正确性。通过对定位精度的分析,说明根据卫星分布特点可以按照本文方法量化得到伪距测量与辅助信息的精度的最优数量级关系,可以用最小代价实现定位精度的提升。该结论可指导接收机外部辅助器件的选择。     

论消防应急救援信息公开机制之构建

消防应急救援信息具有信息基数大、隐性程度高、时效性强的特点。对消防应急救援中的信息实行公开,有利于维护社会稳定、普及防灾减灾知识、塑造消防部队的良好形象。消防应急救援信息的公开应坚持真实性、及时性、口径一致的原则,建立信息收集研判机制、与媒体的沟通机制、新闻发言人制度、网络舆情应对机制。     

案例教学在《化学事故应急救援》课程中的应用

案例教学首先要了解“案例教学法”的含义及特点,在此基础上介绍《化学事故应急救援》的课程特点,并就该课程案例教学实施过程中案例的选取、课堂案例讨论、案例总结与评价等问题进行分析,最后对案例教学实施中应注意的问题提出三点意见。     

军民融合框架下非战争军事行动应急防疫保障体系建设的思考

2020年初发生的"新冠肺炎"疫情是新中国成立以来防控难度最大的重大突发公共卫生事件,也是对军队应急防疫保障体系的实际检验。军队应立足于军民融合战略思想的大背景,着眼非战争军事行动应急防疫保障体系建设的实际,完善重大疫情防控体制机制,进一步健全公共卫生体系,以全面提升防控和救治能力。本文结合当前新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情和以往非战争军事行动应急防疫保障的实践经验,分析了非战争军事行动卫生防疫保障的特点,阐述了其经验做法和存在的不足,从防疫指挥救治、应急物资保障、卫勤保障法律、心理危机干预以及防疫研发攻关等五个方面给出了对策措施,希翼随着军民融合不断深入推进,军地救治经验的相互交流和科研技术的协助攻关,本研究能够为非战争军事行动应急防疫保障体系建设提供一些参考。     

油料装备战场应急维修技术体系研究

从信息化战争对油料装备战场抢修快捷、有效和适时的要求出发,建立了油料装备战场应急维修技术体系,该体系由智能自修复维修技术、战场原位应急维修技术、伴随应急维修技术、定点应急维修技术和远程可视化应急维修技术五个层次组成,其关键技术是智能自修复技术和原位应急维修技术。采用新材料、新工艺、新技术实现维修敏捷化、精确化、信息化是油料装备战场应急维修技术的发展方向。