俄罗斯空天防御教学训练设备发展与问题研究

俄罗斯按照建设航天力量的需求,积极研究现代空天防御教学技术设备。俄罗斯空天防御教学训练设备可帮助受训者利用所获得的知识与能力,在准备和完成实践任务时在不同系统设备间实现不同级别的综合协同,将实现结构和软件的模块化。俄航天兵使用空天防御教学训练设备的经验对军队空天防御专业人员训练具有重要的借鉴意义。本文分析了俄罗斯空天防御教学训练设备现状,研究了朱可夫空天防御军事学院一体化空天防御自动化控制系统教学试验模型的构成、原理、作用和应用,总结了俄罗斯空天防御教学训练设备在国家标准、教学法、工效学和组织方面存在的主要问题及解决办法,以期为军队空天防御教学训练设备发展提供参考。     

Small footprint,small payoff: The military effectiveness of security force assistance

After 15 years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq, many now see ‘small-footprint’ security force assistance (SFA) – training, advising and equipping allied militaries – as an alternative to large US ground-force commitments. Yet, its actual military efficacy has been little studied. This paper seeks to fill this gap. We find important limitations on SFA’s military utility, stemming from agency problems arising from systematic interest misalignment between the US and its typical partners. SFA’s achievable upper bound is modest and attainable only if US policy is intrusive and conditional, which it rarely is. For SFA, small footprints will usually mean small payoffs.     

Effective in battle: conceptualizing soldiers’ combat effectiveness*

How do we understand combat effectiveness – soldiers’ performance in battle? Despite the broad consensus that understanding combat effectiveness is important both for scholars and policymakers, there is widespread disagreement about what combat effectiveness is. More specifically, studies of effectiveness tend to focus on either the skill of soldiers in battle, or their will to fight. Yet both skill and will are essential components of an effective fighting force. This article argues that understanding combat effectiveness requires understanding both of these key components of effectiveness. In other words, combat effectiveness requires both the skill and will to engage the enemy in an organized manner. It then demonstrates the usefulness of this conceptualization by applying it to the cases of British, Indian, and Australian forces fighting the Japanese during the Second World War. Only when scholars are talking about the same concept will our understanding of the conditions under which militaries are effective in battle progress. By comparing different units fighting the same opponent under the same material conditions, I demonstrate that units vary both in their combat skill and their will to fight, and that understanding their effectiveness in battle requires analyzing both of these key factors.     

Does military spending stimulate growth? An empirical investigation in Italy

This paper investigates the effect of military burden on economic growth and extends previous works on the optimal size of government expenditure by exploring how external threat affects the preferences of the households and, in turn, economic growth. Post World War II Italian data are used to estimate nonlinear growth models using time-series semi-parametric methods. The estimates show that total government and civilian burdens are productive, whereas, military burden has significant effects on economic growth through the expenditure for peacekeeping missions, which reduces the insecurity in the home country. This may justify economically the current not negligible budget devoted to peacekeeping and humanitarian missions.     

The crisis of American military assistance: strategic dithering and Fabergé Egg armies

ABSTRACT

The United States has provided substantial amounts of military assistance and aid since the end of World War Two. During the Cold War, it proved vital in protecting numerous regimes from communist takeovers. Successful outcomes occurred when American leaders made large initial aid commitments, and the states had the capacity and political willpower to use it effectively. However, Vietnam was an example of how U.S. support lagged, as leaders in Saigon preferred political survival instead of creating regime legitimacy. Following 9/11, American security aid focused on making weak countries develop stronger security forces. Unfortunately, this created Fabergé egg militaries: expensive and easily broken by insurgents. This article suggests long-term strategic commitments need to be made alongside more resources for the American State Department and similar organizations to focus on the politics of state-building. Finally, this article suggests strategies, such as “whole-of-government” approaches, to improve long-term security and political institution building.     

韩国反导政策:调整、原因及影响

韩国自20世纪90年代起开始考虑反导系统的构建以来,其反导政策经历了"明确反对加入美国反导体系,自主构建韩国型导弹防御系统"到"强化韩美、韩美日反导合作,谋求实质上融入美国反导体系"的显著调整与变化。韩国反导政策的演变与朝鲜核、导威胁的与日俱增、韩国自身反导能力的不足及美国的极力推动等因素密不可分。当前,韩国开始部署"萨德"末段高空区域反导系统,韩美反导合作日益深入,并向韩美日三边合作拓展,且取得了实质性的进展。韩国强化与美、日的反导联合,在军事、外交、安全方面引发了广泛影响。     

基于灰色关联分析的防空兵力编组方案优选

要地防空中需要研究的问题很多,其中要地防空兵力编组方案优选是研究的重点问题之一,首先对灰关联分析方法和要地防空兵力编组的关联性进行了分析,然后在兵力部署要求的基础上,建立了评价指标体系及其量化分析,最后采用灰关联分析方法建立了方案优选模型,具体的实例验证了基于灰关联分析的兵力编组优选模型的可行性和有效性,为要地防空兵力编组方案的优选问题提供了一种量化的新思路。     

潜艇使用自航式声诱饵防御声自导鱼雷模型研究

针对潜艇如何使用自航式声诱饵防御声自导鱼雷,分析了自航式声诱饵的初始航向范围,并建立了相应的防御模型.然后采用线性规划方法,求取最优的潜艇规避角度和诱饵航向.最后时典型态势进行仿真计算,结果表明,采用该方法得出的结果与实际作战基本符合,从而验证了模型的正确性.     

基于海上遥控平台的防空武器拦截空靶试验方法

针对近程防空武器系统拦截空中靶标试验面临的主要问题,结合未来空中靶标的发展及武器系统的试验需求,提出了以海上无人试验平台为载体,加装近程防空武器系统,并通过遥控方式,实现对空中靶标进行拦截的试验方法.分析表明,该方法在目前具有较好的可行性.     

防空兵战场控制能力评价模型

为了理解防空兵战场控制系统,分析影响战场指挥能力的因素,建立防空兵战场控制能力模型.将战场控制能力因素转化为量化指标,建立模型主要包括流程分析、指标体系建立、组织因素量化、权重计算等,运用AHP法、幂指数法建模计算,最终得出评价模型.为防空兵群战场控制能力评价提供了一种科学方法,从而便于实施防空兵群控制水平分析和战场控制资源效能分析.