要素分析法在边防情报识别中的应用

边防情报识别是边防情报工作的一项重要内容,要素分析法是当前公安边防情报识别的基本方法之一。结合公安边防情报的特殊性对要素分析法进行了探讨,旨在更好的运用要素分析法,为公安边防情报的识别提供理论参考,以促进公安边防情报识别工作的进一步发展。     

公安现役部队文化建设途径探析

加强公安现役部队文化建设,必须把握文化建设的方向,坚持社会主义核心价值体系,坚持抵制腐朽文化的影响和继承与创新的统一;必须抓住文化建设的关键环节,坚持以人为本,注重结合部队职能任务,建设学习型警营;必须筑牢文化建设的基础支撑,注重队伍建设,加大基础设施建设和制度建设。     

论岛屿应急救援体系的构建

为全面提高海南省岛屿应急救援能力,有效防范和应对灾害事故和突发事件,保护人民生命财产安全,提出建立岛屿应急救援体系的思路,构建岛屿应急救援专业队伍和多种形式消防队伍有效联动的综合性应急救援力量体系。     

基于前景理论的CGF Agent决策建模研究

前景理论(Prospect Theory,PT)描述了个体在不确定条件下的决策规律,较好地刻画了决策者的风险偏好。分析表明,PT在作战决策建模中具有一定的适用性和可行性。提出了一种基于PT的计算机生成兵力(Computer Generated Forces,CGF)Agent决策建模方法,给出了CGF Agent的建模框架,对CGF Agent决策过程中方案选择的具体步骤和算法进行了详细阐述。实验表明,所提出的方法在一定程度上提高了CGF Agent决策行为的真实性,证明了所提出方法的有效性。     

雷达侦察效能对防空兵群抗击效率的影响评估

从信息化条件下防空作战的实际需要出发,描述了搜索雷达与火控雷达的侦察效能对群抗击效率影响的基本特点,运用概率论和防空兵射击指挥理论,建立了防空兵群分散指挥和集中指挥时,搜索与火控雷达发现目标概率对群抗击效率影响的数学模型,结合实例计算分析了选择射击指挥方式时搜索雷达发现目标概率的临界值。     

基于扩展Petri网的防空C~4ISRK系统建模分析

针对地空导弹武器系统防空中的火力分配问题,建立了战术级防空C4ISRK系统的Petri网模型。对其进行扩展,即联合谓词Petri网和赋色Petri网,建立旅级火力分配的改进模型,给出了具体的前置谓词公式。为有效分析战术决策的正确性提供了依据和思路。     

Regular and irregular forces in conflict: nineteenth century insurgencies in South America

ABSTRACT

In the decades following independence from Spain, ‘civil wars’ ravaged the newly established polities in South America. Former vice-regal capitals inherited a larger portion of the colonial administration and had larger economic resources and a hegemonic project they were able to have permanent and professional armed forces, capable of leading the offensive and giving battle following the European rules of military art. The central hypothesis of this work is that there is a necessary relationship between the shape of these asymmetrical conflicts, their outcome and the political territorial configuration of each country in post-revolutionary Spanish America. When permanent armies took over from local militias, the capital kept the integrity of its territories and there was a tendency towards political centralization. When this did not happen and the militias managed to find a way to defeat their centralizing enemies, the local powers had an opportunity to renegotiate their participation in the political body, and sought to maintain their independence, which was manifest in federal agreements, otherwise a process of territorial fragmentation began. More than a difference between regular and irregular forces there was one between intermittent, and permanent mobilization.     

Intelligence and military doctrine: paradox or oxymoron?

This article examines the evolution of the current British military joint intelligence doctrine. We argue that military intelligence doctrine is dogged by an intrinsic tension between the ethos and expectations of military doctrine and those of the professional practice of intelligence. We further argue not only that prior iterations of UK joint intelligence doctrine failed to effectively deal with this intelligence doctrine dilemma, but also that measures in the current doctrine to address this problem directly created their own problems. Moreover, as a result, otherwise sound innovations in the current UK intelligence doctrine have proven unsuitable to wider diffusion in more recent intelligence doctrine such as the new NATO intelligence doctrine which, otherwise, draws extensively on its British precursor.     

How pressure for change challenge military organizational characteristics

This article elaborates on how structural, normative and functional pressures for change may challenge military organizational characteristics. We problematize theoretically and exemplify empirically what consequences these pressures can have on military organizational characteristics, arguing that they constitute major challenges for managing in particular normative pressures for change. The empirical examples suggest that bureaucratic, hierarchical, narcissistic and greedy traits of the organization are challenged by normative pressures such as value changes and normalization. Another source of challenge is professionalization processes. Structural challenges, on the other hand, are managed by the organization and do not seem to inhibit the workings of organizational characteristics. The plausibility probe conducted questions the sustainability of military organizational characteristics in their traditional disguise, in particular due to legitimacy concerns. It is suggested that future research should be directed towards analyzing how military organizations manage pressure for change and whether their characteristics are questioned.     

Military Off the Shelf Procurements: A Norwegian Case Study

Buying off the shelf procurements (OTS) has become an important part of the national acquisition strategy in several countries, and this paper seeks to bring empirical evidence on OTS as the preferred acquisition strategy by use of data from 2015 to 2022 investment portfolio of the Norwegian Armed Forces. We develop definitions for three categories of procurement – OTS, modified OTS and development projects – as well as a method to classify projects into these categories. Our first finding is that the characteristics of OTS projects correspond to modified OTS and development projects. Our second finding indicates that OTS projects perform better when it comes to the completion of projects according to the initial schedule, compared to development projects.