基于灰色神经网络的装甲部队油料消耗预测

油料消耗量的精确预测直接影响装甲部队后勤保障能力的提升,而传统预测模型精度不高,应用范围也有一定的局限,难以满足信息化战争精确保障的需要。提出一种装甲部队油料消耗预测的组合模型,对历史油料消耗数据和油耗影响因素进行统计分析,求出各影响因素与油耗量的关联度作为权重系数;通过改进GM(1,1)模型预测某部队下一次军事行动的油耗量;用GM(1,1)模型的预测值、加权后的各影响因素值和油耗实际值训练网络,对下一次想定的军事行动油耗量进行预测。通过平均相对误差计算表明,组合预测模型比单一的GM(1,1)模型预测精度高,能够较好地指导部队进行下一步的油料供管工作。     

要地防空中的光电对抗战术

介绍了光电精确制导武器和光电对抗装备的特点,进而分析得出要地防空中要采用分层对抗战术,并分析了实施方法和运用方式,给出了战术配置原则,从技术、战术和地形气候方面分析了影响战术配置的因素,对部队开展基地训练中的光电对抗战术训练具有一定的参考价值。     

A rent‐seeking model of international competition and alliances∗

This paper presents an alternative approach for analyzing international competition and alliances as rent‐seeking contests that are able to capture the impure public good nature of defense spending. Two‐country Cournot and Stackelberg games are considered and comparative static results derived. A three‐country model is investigated, and alliance behavior is explored in the context of this rent‐seeking model. The conjecture that an alliance may become less effective if the allies’ interests become more closely aligned is verified. Finally, the model is generalized, and a Nash‐Cournot equilibrium is computed.     

ON THE CHOICE OF MULTI-TASK R&D DEFENSE PROJECTS: A CASE STUDY OF The ISRAELI MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM

Investments in R&D constitute a major share of the expenditures of the hi-tech industry since, generally, they enable firms to successfully compete in the rapidly and constantly changing markets for hi-tech products and services. The role of R&D projects is particularly important in the areas of defense and homeland security due to the nature of warfare and the continuous threats posed by arms races and by terror organizations. This study analyzes the choice of the R&D projects designed to counter multiple related military threats. It develops the methodology required to assess whether it is preferable to develop one project to thwart several related threats, or several distinct projects, each of which provides an answer to one specific threat or a partial set of the threats. An analytic solution is provided and assessed for two simple models with two related threats. A solution of the model is then provided for any number of related threats, using a dynamic programming methodology. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our model and methodology to Israel’s missile defense problem; that is, we show how to optimally develop systems aimed at thwarting the multiple threats of short-, medium-, and long-range missiles.     

空天防御发射技术发展研究

在世界新军事变革形势下,随着空天攻防技术不断发展,空天防御的发射技术也得到了发展与完善.以国内外典型空天防御产品为例,开展了发射技术的未来发展趋势综合技术研究,提出了空天防御体系中发射技术将向通用化、网络化和功能扁平化等方向发展的观点,并为此展开了详细论述.     

组合赋权法在指控系统性能评估中的应用

对作战单元以上级防空导弹指控系统的性能评估是一个多目标评价过程,多目标评价中的关键点是目标权重的确定.运用基于最小三乘原理的组合赋权法,根据给定的评估指标体系,对指控系统性能进行综合评价,给出了系统性能的评估算法,并在仿真系统中得到验证.     

太阳能-空气源热泵热水系统在办公建筑中的应用

太阳能、空气能作为可再生能源,在建筑节能中越来越受到人们的重视.在分析两类能源各自优缺点的基础上,指出了太阳能--空气源热泵组合热水系统在热水稳定供应及节能环保方面的优势.通过实例进一步分析了技术经济性,结果表明太阳能--空气源热泵组合热水系统在经济性和节能性方面均优于常规热水器,值得大力推广使用.     

不同海拔富氧进气柴油机富氧经济性分析

建立了高海拔条件下柴油发动机富氧进气燃烧排气氧气体积分数与进气氧气体积分数关系的模型,对海拔2 000,3 000和4000m处不同转速时发动机富氧进气的燃烧状况和富氧经济性进行研究.结果表明:模型预测结果与试验结果吻合较好,当发动机正常进气过量空气系数α＜1.2时,富氧进气改善发动机燃烧状况的效果明显.发动机富氧进气...     

便携式防空导弹制导控制系统仿真可信性研究

概述了防空导弹系统仿真可信性评估流程,以便携式防空导弹制导控制系统数字仿真为例,对多个仿真要素进行了可信性评估,在此基础上对仿真模型进行了确认,研究探索导弹系统仿真可信性评估方法．     

陆军通用装备保障体系改革研究

对陆军通用保障体系建设现状及存在的问题进行了分析,提出了陆军通用装备保障体系改革的目标和原则,从科学统筹保障任务、优化配置专业力量、统一建设保障手段、强化基于信息系统的体系运行管理等4个方面阐述了具体改革内容,为陆军通用装备保障体系改革实践提供了理论依据和支撑。