新型驱护舰编队舰空导弹防御体系射击效能研究

针对新型驱护舰编队舰空导弹防御体系射击效能评估这一难题,对其射击效能准则进行了确立,提出了基于排队论的射击效能评估模型,对体系射击效能进行仿真计算,总结出能对系统射击效能做出准确评估的方法,并利用实例对模型进行了验证。     

舰载防空导弹系统的防御能力评估

反舰导弹是当今舰艇及编队面临的主要威胁。为评估反舰导弹攻防能力,以目前世界上防御能力最强的美国航母战斗群为背景,研究采用分层火力配置的航母舰队防御体系对付反舰导弹的有效性。首先分析反舰导弹飞行高度、雷达散射截面及综合效应对防御系统中雷达探测能力的影响,之后应用简化公式,对各类典型舰载对空防御武器的最大拦截距离、拦截次数和拦截效率进行量化分析,对防御反舰导弹能力做出评估。     

空空导弹研究与发展的世纪审视

从回顾国内外空空导弹的研制与发展之路入手,系统地分析了空空导弹系列化发展的成因和特征,并对空空导弹的系列化发展问题提出了一些看法。     

TOPSIS法用于区域防空重点保卫目标排序计算

区域防空作战中优化选择重点保卫目标,集中部署优势防空兵力,才能确保重点目标不受或少受损失.分析了影响保卫目标重要性的主要因素,采取德尔菲法获得指标值,采用层次分析法得到指标权重,利用逼近理想解的排序法对保卫目标的重要性进行了定量分析.最后通过算例对算法的正确性和实用性进行了验证.     

Optimization and mediated bartering models for ground delay programs

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the airline community within the United States have adopted a new paradigm for air traffic flow management, called Collaborative Decision Making (CDM). A principal goal of CDM is shared decision‐making responsibility between the FAA and airlines, so as to increase airline control over decisions that involve economic tradeoffs. So far, CDM has primarily led to enhancements in the implementation of Ground Delay Programs, by changing procedures for allocating slots to airlines and exchanging slots between airlines. In this paper, we discuss how these procedures may be formalized through appropriately defined optimization models. In addition, we describe how inter‐airline slot exchanges may be viewed as a bartering process, in which each “round” of bartering requires the solution of an optimization problem. We compare the resulting optimization problem with the current procedure for exchanging slots and discuss possibilities for increased decision‐making capabilities by the airlines. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006     

双层地下室空气冲击波特性的模型试验研究

高层建筑多层地下室内人防结构顶板核爆荷载的合理确定是目前人防结构设计中亟待解决的问题。文中在对实际工程的调查基础上,研究了双层地下室的试验模型,进行了空气冲击波在地下室模型内传播的爆炸试验,分析了作用在双层地下室底层结构顶板的爆炸压力分布特性,并得出多层地下室的底层顶板核爆荷载一般要小于单层地下室顶板核爆荷载设计值的结论.     

架构和模式在水声信息流仿真软件中的应用

水声信息流仿真软件系统涉及多目标、多声纳以及多变的海洋环境.仿真软件的复用性是现代软件工程的重要性能指标.针对系统开放性的特点,在领域分析模型的基础上,采用了面向对象方法设计仿真软件模型.为了满足软件多层次复用的需求,应用软件架构技术和设计模式设计仿真软件.根据水声信息流仿真软件需求,系统划分为四层结构;按功能,层又可分解为包.可复用的设计模式用于设计不同层和包中类之间的关系.提出的仿真软件模型具有良好的可扩充性与可复用性.     

高精度气压源的Fuzzy-PID控制研究

设计了Fuzzy-PID双模控制器并应用到高精度气源压力控制系统中.试验表明,单纯采用PID控制的高精度气源压力控制系统具有精度高的优点,但不适应系统参数的变化.Fuzzy-PID双模控制器具有响应速度快、稳态误差小、鲁棒性强的优点.通过试验比较了传统PID、Fuzzy控制和Fuzzy-PID双模控制3种控制策略,试验结果表明,Fuzzy-PID双模控制器综合了Fuzzy控制和PID控制的优点,适用于高精度气源压力控制系统.     

DESIGNING A VIABLE PREDICTION MARKET TO FORECAST DEFENSE ACQUISITION COST AND SCHEDULE OUTCOMES

This paper is the first to demonstrate a viable prediction market that successfully forecasts defense acquisition cost and schedule outcomes, and to provide insights for defense executive decision‐making. Already used in private industry, prediction markets can also accurately forecast outcomes and their associated risks for government programs. Using virtual money, prediction markets allow traders to ‘bet’ on some future outcome. This market mechanism turns out to be a relatively simple and accurate way to discover, aggregate, and communicate to a defense executive the collective market’s beliefs about the likelihood of an eventual outcome of an acquisition program of interest.     

基于灰色关联分析的反导导弹战斗部作战效能评估

针对反导导弹战斗部的性能特点,以灰色关联理论为基础,采用灰色加权关联度分析进行综合评判,建立了反导导弹战斗部作战效能评估模型．最后通过算例,验证了该模型的完整性,最终为决策者做出合理的作战决策提供了理论参考．