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排序方式: 共有206条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
191.
提出以大型试验批个数来确定身管武器生产定型时机的方法,并依据统计决策与贝叶斯分析方法,结合专家信息与收集的数据,对身管武器生产定型时机作出量化判定,为定型委员会的决策提供理论与数据支持。 相似文献
192.
Characteristically, a small subset of operational problems admit risk neutrality when contingent claims methodology were used in their analysis. That is, for the majority of manufacturing and production problems, operating cash flows are not directly linked to prices of traded assets. However, to the extent that correlations can be estimated, the methodology's applicability to a broader set of operational problems is supported. Our article addresses this issue with the objective of extending the use of contingent claims techniques to a larger set of operational problems. In broad terms, this objective entails a partial equilibrium approach to the problem of valuing uncertain cash flows. To this end, we assume risk aversion and cast our approach within Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model. In this context, we formulate a “generic” production valuation model that is framed as an exercise in stochastic optimal control. The model is versatile in its characterization and can easily be adapted to accommodate a wide‐ranging set of risk‐based operational problems where the underlying sources of uncertainty are not traded. To obtain results, the model is recast as a stochastic dynamic program to be solved numerically. The article addresses a number of fundamental issues in the analysis risk based decision problems in operations. First, in the approach provided, decisions are analyzed under a properly defined risk structure. Second, the process of analysis leads to suitably adjusted probability distributions through which, appropriately discounted expectations are derived. Third, through consolidating existing concepts into a standard and adaptable framework, we extend the applicability of contingent claims methodology to a broader set of operational problems. The approach is advantageous as it obviates the need for exogenously specifying utility functions or discount rates.© 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011 相似文献
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为研究子弹圆环内均匀散布的情况子母弹对圆目标的毁伤概率,首先研究子弹散布范围覆盖圆目标的面积,然后用概率分析的方法推导出了子弹单圆环均匀散布下子母弹单发射及相关射击对圆目标的毁伤概率计算公式,并讨论了子弹多环均匀散布下子母弹毁伤概率的计算方法。算例表明子弹双圆环内均匀散布时,子母弹对圆目标的毁伤概率要略高于子弹单环对圆目标的毁伤概率。 相似文献
196.
Helmut Maneval 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(3):221-246
This survey article deals with defence spending in West Germany from 1960 on, and the resulting manpower levels and major weapons of the Federal Armed forces, focusing on macro‐economic aspects. Statistics compiled from a variety of published and unpublished sources are presented in 16 tables. An econometric defence‐spending function is derived for the period. For comparison, the equivalent data of East Germany from the last years is also presented. The small set of developments in the next few years that can be predicted firmly are discussed. 相似文献
197.
W. Robert J. Alexander 《Defence and Peace Economics》2013,24(1):13-25
The sectoral production function model of Feder (1983) has been widely used to examine the link between defence spending and economic growth. In this paper, the model, for which too much has been claimed in some past work, is examined, and the case is made for using growth in real non‐defence output rather than growth in real aggregate output (inclusive of military spending) as the dependent variable. Attention is restricted to a small group of OECD countries for which reliable labour force and capital stock (as well as defence) data are obtainable. With non‐defence output as the dependent variable and using only high quality data, no evidence in favour of the underconsumptionist (as opposed to the defence as a burden) position is found. 相似文献
198.
面向作战任务的弹药消耗预测模型研究 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
针对战时弹药供应存在断供以及盲供问题,从实战情况出发,按照宏观把握与微观分析相结合的思想,在重点分析弹药消耗规律与补给特点的基础上,建立了基于消耗规律的战时弹药预测模型.以红蓝双方对抗演习为背景,以影响弹药消耗与补给的各类因素为落脚点,通过数值计算与结果对比分析,验证了预测方法的有效性,一定程度上为指挥员宏观层面上整体把握弹药消耗规律,快速制定弹药补给方案提供了重要的辅助支撑作用. 相似文献
199.
描述了一个专家系统工具JavaKBB,其目标是设计一个容易使用、方便扩展的专家系统开发工具,可以同时表示领域概念知识与过程知识;既可以运行于商用操作系统Windows等,也可以运行于中标麒麟等军用国产操作系统。为此,提出了一种集成框架与产生式规则的知识表示模式,定义了五种抽象层次以设计一个专家系统,包括知识原语、知识单元、知识部件、知识库以及知识系统;在此基础上基于Java语言设计并实现了JavaKBB。JavaKBB的另外一个重要特征是它能以XML格式保存知识库,具备与其他知识库进行交互的潜力。目前,JavaKBB已经用来构建慢性肝炎防治专家系统、装备辅助决策系统等。 相似文献
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