基于备件需求预测的两步法理论

在对备件需求时间序列研究的基础上,结合指数平滑法和Croston法的特点,分析了指数平滑法与两步法的原理,通过对指数平滑法和两步法方差的研究,得到两步法是指数平滑法的一般形式的结论,为两步法的进一步研究提供一定的理论支撑。     

基于数据场的登陆作战体系兵力编组效能分析

兵力编组效能直接影响登陆作战体系的作战能力。在分析梯队式和群队式兵力编组模式下登陆作战体系网络模型的基础上,利用数据场理论研究登陆作战体系的拓扑势场,描述梯队或群队间由支援、协同产生的协同作战能力,建立基于数据场的登陆作战体系兵力编组效能模型,并进行仿真分析。得到了一种定量分析兵力编组作战效能的方法。     

基于排队论的协同防空作战效能分析

舰艇编队协同防空作战是未来海战的重要形式,运用排队论对舰艇编队协同防空的作战效能进行了研究。以排队理论为基础建立了舰艇编队协同防空的排队模型,运用理论分析得到了以整个编队毁伤目标概率为指标的防空效能。通过对防空效能的计算与仿真,分析了几个重要参数对防空效能的影响,为多层舰艇防空系统的设计与运用提供了理论支持。     

基于通信时延信息的被动定位精度分析

基于通信信号中的时延信息,构建了基本TDOA定位算法,详细推导出了其理论定位精度分布及理论上最优定位点精度,为其定位的主要误差影响因素分析,及基于时延信息的被动定位算法的设计和改进力度提供了参考依据。并结合通信信号实际环境,给出了较为全面的仿真案例验算。     

基于改进萤火虫优化算法的BP神经网络目标群威胁判断

以舰艇防空作战目标选择决策和规划需求为背景,针对萤火虫算法求解精度不高且收敛速度较慢的问题,提出可动态调整步长的改进萤火虫优化算法。在改进萤火虫优化算法的基础上,建立基于改进萤火虫优化算法的BP神经网络目标群威胁判断结构模型。通过改进萤火虫算法优化BP神经网络的初始权值和阈值,能够更好地预测测试集。实验结果表明,该方法可快速、准确地实现目标群威胁判断。     

新型陆军部队作战能力综合实验支持系统设计?

利用综合实验方法对新型陆军部队作战能力进行分析评估是新型陆军部队建设发展的客观需要,其综合实验的成功运用必须得到相应系统的支持。针对支持系统所需具备的功能,设计支持系统的总体结构及主要功能模块,详细分析各功能模块间的信息流程和支持系统的应用过程,为支持系统的具体构建提供指导。     

新型舰炮使用测速雷达后观测距离偏差射击校正方法

针对测速雷达精确校正初速后的观测距离偏差校正方法进行研究,建立不同校正方法校正量计算模型,对比分析不同校正方法校正精度,得出了使用测速雷达精确校正初速后观测距离偏差应采用折合空气密度校正精度高的结论,为中大口径舰炮部队作战与训练和装备的研制改进提供依据。     

Long-rod penetration: the transition zone between rigid and hydrodynamic penetration modes

Long-rod penetration in a wide range of velocity means that the initial impact velocity varies in a range from tens of meters per second to several kilometers per second. The long rods maintain rigid state when the impact velocity is low, the nose of rod deforms and even is blunted when the velocity gets higher, and the nose erodes and fails to lead to the consumption of long projectile when the velocity is very high due to instantaneous high pressure. That is, from low velocity to high velocity, the projectile undergoes rigid rods, deforming non-erosive rods, and erosive rods. Because of the complicated changes of the projectile, no well-established theoretical model and numerical simulation have been used to study the transition zone. Based on the analysis of penetration behavior in the transition zone, a phenomenological model to describe target resistance and a formula to calculate penetration depth in transition zone are proposed, and a method to obtain the boundary velocity of transition zone is determined. A combined theoretical analysis model for three response regions is built by analyzing the characteristics in these regions. The penetration depth predicted by this combined model is in good agreement with experimental result.     

Theoretical study of an energetic material di-1H-1,3,4-triazole derivatives

Computations by density functional theory (DFT) method are performed on a series of di-1H-1,3,4-triazole derivatives with different substituents and linkages. The heat of formation (HOF) is predicted by the designed isodesmic reactions. The predicted results reveal that –N₃ and –NN– groups are effective structural units for increasing the HOF values of the di-1H-1,3,4-triazole derivatives. The HOMO–LUMO gap is affected by the substituents and linkage groups. Detonation performance is evaluated using the Kamlet–Jacobs approach based on the calculated density and HOF. The results indicate that –NO₂, –NF₂, –NH–, –NH–NH– and –NN– groups are helpful for enhancing the detonation properties of di-1H-1,3,4-triazole derivatives. The bond dissociation energy and bond order of the weakest bonds are analyzed to investigate their stability. It is observed that the –CH₂–, –CH₂–CH₂– and –CHCH– groups are effective structural units for improving the stabilities of these derivatives. Considering the detonation performance and the stability, five compounds are screened as the potential candidates for high energy density materials.     

基于数据场的登陆作战体系兵力编组效能分析?

兵力编组效能直接影响登陆作战体系的作战能力。在分析梯队式和群队式兵力编组模式下登陆作战体系网络模型的基础上,利用数据场理论研究登陆作战体系的拓扑势场,描述梯队或群队间由支援、协同产生的协同作战能力,建立基于数据场的登陆作战体系兵力编组效能模型,并进行仿真分析。得到了一种定量分析兵力编组作战效能的方法。