脉冲功率电源故障诊断方法研究

脉冲功率电源是电磁发射系统中最容易发生故障的薄弱环节,脉冲功率电源故障会使整个系统性能下降。针对脉冲功率电源故障,提出基于多层小波分析提取故障信息的模式搜索支持向量机故障诊断方法。通过建立脉冲功率电源的软故障模型,进行仿真分析获得电流故障数据样本,对故障样本进行离散小波分解,获得指定层细节信息的小波系数作为故障特征量;对故障特征量进行主成分分析,将小波系数进行降维,以便有效地进行故障诊断。通过实验,将所提方法故障诊断结果与其他三种故障诊断结果进行比较,验证了所提方法的有效性。     

Application of Markov renewal theory and semi-Markov decision processes in maintenance modeling and optimization of multi-unit systems

In this paper, a condition-based maintenance model for a multi-unit production system is proposed and analyzed using Markov renewal theory. The units of the system are subject to gradual deterioration, and the gradual deterioration process of each unit is described by a three-state continuous time homogeneous Markov chain with two working states and a failure state. The production rate of the system is influenced by the deterioration process and the demand is constant. The states of the units are observable through regular inspections and the decision to perform maintenance depends on the number of units in each state. The objective is to obtain the steady-state characteristics and the formula for the long-run average cost for the controlled system. The optimal policy is obtained using a dynamic programming algorithm. The result is validated using a semi-Markov decision process formulation and the policy iteration algorithm. Moreover, an analytical expression is obtained for the calculation of the mean time to initiate maintenance using the first passage time theory.     

基于在线学习的频谱感知次序策略*

认知无线电允许次级用户在频谱没有被主用户使用时动态地接入频谱进行数据传输。动态频谱接入是解决无线电频谱资源短缺和使用效率低下问题的有效方案,而频谱感知是实现动态频谱接入的关键挑战之一。次级用户的感知能力有限,为了快速找到频谱空闲概率最大的频段从而获得更多的频谱接入机会,研究了频谱感知次序问题。考虑到频谱空闲概率会随时间变化且对次级用户不可知,提出了一个在线学习框架,把频谱感知次序问题规约成经典多摇臂赌博机问题,并利用在线学习方法——满意折现汤普森抽样算法(satisficing discounted Thompson sampling)处理优化问题。仿真结果表明,和其他算法相比,所提算法可获得更多的频谱接入机会并且能够跟踪频谱空闲概率的变化。     

航天装备备件配置现状SWOT分析及对策研究

全面分析航天装备备件配置现状,把握备件配置优化的主要方向,形成推动备件配置水平快速提升的关键策略,是提高航天装备备件保障科学性和高效性的重要基础。本文通过SWOT分析法对航天装备备件配置现状的优势、劣势、机遇和威胁进行了系统剖析,并在此基础上构建SWOT分析矩阵,进而基于矩阵因素的不同组合形式,研究形成改进航天装备备件配置现状、提高备件配置科学性的四种关键策略,即抓住机遇、发挥优势的S-O策略,利用机遇、克服不足的W-O策略,利用优势、应对威胁的S-T策略和弥补不足、应对威胁的W-T策略,提出当前应重点解决备件需求提报精度、库存配置科学性和协调激励机制三个现实问题,为开展航天装备备件配置问题深入研究明确了重点、确定了方向。     

Military Spending,Conflict and External Debt in Sub-Saharan Africa

The damaging economic effects of the debt crises on Africa in the late 1980s encouraged considerable research on the determinants of external debt in developing economies. Although sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) debt was cut by two-thirds by 2008, through two debt relief programmes, debt in the region has since been rising at an increasingly rapid pace. This study provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of external debt in SSA over the period 1960–2016, using dynamic panel methods. It also considers two potentially important factors that have received relatively little attention. One is military spending, rarely considered, despite a number of well-publicised scandals over the procurement of unnecessary and expensive high-tech weapons systems. A second, is the possibility that the countries studied have been involved in conflict. The empirical results point to a positive impact of military spending on external debt, but with some evidence of heterogeneity across the countries. Furthermore, findings indicate that the positive effect of military expenditure on debt becomes more marked in countries that have been affected by conflict. These results imply that policies to improve security and reduce military spending could be beneficial in reducing external debt and, potentially, improving economic performance in the region.     

Dynamic institutionalization: the foundations of Japan’s radioactive problem

Many have suggested that the true purpose behind Japan’s development of a closed nuclear-fuel cycle is to maintain the technical potential to develop nuclear weapons. However, closer examination of the development of Japan’s nuclear industry shows that, although Japan possesses advanced nuclear technologies, there has been no deliberate strategy to create a nuclear-weapon option. There is no “nuclear hedge.” To illustrate this point, this article presents a framework called “dynamic institutionalization” to explain the origins of Japan’s nuclear policies and the different sets of institutionalized pressures and constraints that have perpetuated these policies over time. Japan’s continued development of closed fuel-cycle technologies is primarily driven by domestic politics and the lack of a permanent spent-fuel management solution. On the other hand, Japan’s institutionalized nuclear forbearance is driven by the calculation that, as long as US extended deterrence remains credible, Japan’s security is best guaranteed through reliance on the US nuclear umbrella. By analytically untangling the policy of closed fuel-cycle development from the rationale for nuclear forbearance, this article provides a more nuanced view of the relationships between the domestic and international variables shaping Japan’s nuclear policies.     

智能化作战指挥模式需求

智能装备已经走入军队、走向战场,创建智能化作战指挥模式是智能化时代作战指挥的必然发展趋势,智能化作战指挥模式需求分析可为智能作战问题研究提供有效的信息。智能化作战指挥模式的需求分析已经具备了一定的物质、理论和技术基础,同时,也具有了一定的构建思路、实践条件和实验平台。在此基础上,本文从军事需求、功能需求和技术需求以及构建要求四个不同角度进行需求分析,以找准创建需求,为后续工作进一步展开奠定基础。     

Analysis of some critical aspects in hot machining of Ti-5553 superalloy: Experimental and FE analysis

In this study, a newly developed titanium superalloy, i.e., the Ti-5553 alloy has used for hot machining. This material replaced Ti-grade-5 alloy in the application of aerospace, automobile, and biomedical sector. However, similar to Ti-grade-5 alloy, the Ti-5553 alloy has a low thermal conductivity which makes it difficult-to-cut material categories hence, high tool wear, cutting force and bad surface finish. Hot machining of Ti-5553 has been studied at different machining condition (room and hot) using Deform-2D finite element analysis. The result from the simulation test was compared with the experimental value and reduction of cutting and thrust forces was observed. The experiment was carried out with the same input parameters as simulation, and good coherence between them observed. Additionally, cutting zone temperature, effective stress, etc. for both room and elevated the temperature are also discussed.     

Natural gas storage valuation and optimization: A real options application

In this article, we present an algorithm for the valuation and optimal operation of natural gas storage facilities. Real options theory is used to derive nonlinear partial‐integro‐differential equations (PIDEs), the solution of which give both valuation and optimal operating strategies for these facilities. The equations are designed to incorporate a wide class of spot price models that can exhibit the same time‐dependent, mean‐reverting dynamics, and price spikes as those observed in most energy markets. Particular attention is paid to the operational characteristics of real storage units. These characteristics include working gas capacities, variable deliverability and injection rates, and cycling limitations. We illustrate the model with a numerical example of a salt cavern storage facility that clearly shows how a gas storage facility is like a financial straddle with both put and call properties. Depending on the amount of gas in storage the relative influence of the put and call components vary. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 2009