空中突击效果预测模型研究

从实践需求出发 ,建立了空中突击效果的预测模型 ,旨在对特定目标在某一时刻遭到突击后 ,预测其在任一后续时间点上所产生的突击效果 ,以便为计划人员有效使用战役突击力量提供可靠保证     

An optimal critical level policy for inventory systems with two demand classes

Traditional inventory systems treat all demands of a given item equally. This approach is optimal if the penalty costs of all customers are the same, but it is not optimal if the penalty costs are different for different customer classes. Then, demands of customers with high penalty costs must be filled before demands of customers with low penalty costs. A commonly used inventory policy for dealing with demands with different penalty costs is the critical level inventory policy. Under this policy demands with low penalty costs are filled as long as inventory is above a certain critical level. If the inventory reaches the critical level, only demands with high penalty costs are filled and demands with low penalty costs are backordered. In this article, we consider a critical level policy for a periodic review inventory system with two demand classes. Because traditional approaches cannot be used to find the optimal parameters of the policy, we use a multidimensional Markov chain to model the inventory system. We use a sample path approach to prove several properties of this inventory system. Although the cost function is not convex, we can build on these properties to develop an optimization approach that finds the optimal solution. We also present some numerical results. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Models of sensor operations for border surveillance

This article is motivated by the diverse array of border threats, ranging from terrorists to arms dealers and human traffickers. We consider a moving sensor that patrols a certain section of a border with the objective to detect infiltrators who attempt to penetrate that section. Infiltrators arrive according to a Poisson process along the border with a specified distribution of arrival location, and disappear a random amount of time after their arrival. The measures of effectiveness are the target (infiltrator) detection rate and the time elapsed from target arrival to target detection. We study two types of sensor trajectories that have constant endpoints, are periodic, and maintain constant speed: (1) a sensor that jumps instantaneously from the endpoint back to the starting‐point, and (2) a sensor that moves continuously back and forth. The controlled parameters (decision variables) are the starting and end points of the patrolled sector and the velocity of the sensor. General properties of these trajectories are investigated. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2008     

Does military spending stimulate growth? An empirical investigation in Italy

This paper investigates the effect of military burden on economic growth and extends previous works on the optimal size of government expenditure by exploring how external threat affects the preferences of the households and, in turn, economic growth. Post World War II Italian data are used to estimate nonlinear growth models using time-series semi-parametric methods. The estimates show that total government and civilian burdens are productive, whereas, military burden has significant effects on economic growth through the expenditure for peacekeeping missions, which reduces the insecurity in the home country. This may justify economically the current not negligible budget devoted to peacekeeping and humanitarian missions.     

支座弹性对压杆临界荷载的影响

在考虑支座弹性的情况下 ,研究了几种常见的压杆结构 ,推导出了计算临界荷载的方程式 ,给出了以稳定系数表示的临界压力的简明表达式及稳定系数列表。由于考虑了支座弹性 ,使本文提出的方法更具有一般意义和工程价值。     

武警部队开进路线问题的蚂蚁算法研究

部队开进路线问题是类似于TSP的NP问题。本文将蚂蚁算法应用于部队开进路线问题中,在综合考量每条路径的通行条件、隐蔽性、迂回道路数量基础上,通过层次分析法求出每条路径的权值,进而运用蚂蚁算法原理对问题设计算法。算法用Delphi实现,通过对实际部队开进路线问题的测试,得到较好结果。相对于传统的经验选择路径方法,此方法更少依赖选择主体的主观性,从而更具客观性与可重复性。     

Groebner基下分离子插值函数模型

给出Groebner基下建立分离子插值函数模型的方法。对于任意离散时间序列可在字典序下找到相关分离子,并用此分离子构建该离散时间序列的函数模型,及其满足所给点列的多元插值函数。通过实例说明了模型建立过程。     

Dynamic signatures and their use in comparing the reliability of new and used systems

The signature of a system with independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) component lifetimes is a vector whose ith element is the probability that the ith component failure is fatal to the system. System signatures have been found to be quite useful tools in the study and comparison of engineered systems. In this article, the theory of system signatures is extended to versions of signatures applicable in dynamic reliability settings. It is shown that, when a working used system is inspected at time t and it is noted that precisely k failures have occurred, the vector s [0,1]^n‐k whose jth element is the probability that the (k + j)th component failure is fatal to the system, for j = 1,2,2026;,n ‐ k, is a distribution‐free measure of the design of the residual system. Next, known representation and preservation theorems for system signatures are generalized to dynamic versions. Two additional applications of dynamic signatures are studied in detail. The well‐known “new better than used” (NBU) property of aging systems is extended to a uniform (UNBU) version, which compares systems when new and when used, conditional on the known number of failures. Sufficient conditions are given for a system to have the UNBU property. The application of dynamic signatures to the engineering practice of “burn‐in” is also treated. Specifically, we consider the comparison of new systems with working used systems burned‐in to a given ordered component failure time. In a reliability economics framework, we illustrate how one might compare a new system to one successfully burned‐in to the kth component failure, and we identify circumstances in which burn‐in is inferior (or is superior) to the fielding of a new system. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2009     

Bayesian inference for a Lanchester type combat model

We undertake inference for a stochastic form of the Lanchester combat model. In particular, given battle data, we assess the type of battle that occurred and whether or not it makes any difference to the number of casualties if an army is attacking or defending. Our approach is Bayesian and we use modern computational techniques to fit the model. We illustrate our method using data from the Ardennes campaign. We compare our results with previous analyses of these data by Bracken and Fricker. Our conclusions are somewhat different to those of Bracken. Where he suggests that a linear law is appropriate, we show that the logarithmic or linear‐logarithmic laws fit better. We note however that the basic Lanchester modeling assumptions do not hold for the Ardennes data. Using Fricker's modified data, we show that although his “super‐logarithmic” law fits best, the linear, linear‐logarithmic, and logarithmic laws cannot be ruled out. We suggest that Bayesian methods can be used to make inference for battles in progress. We point out a number of advantages: Prior information from experts or previous battles can be incorporated; predictions of future casualties are easily made; more complex models can be analysed using stochastic simulation techniques. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 541–558, 2000     

Experimental investigation on dynamic response and damage models of circular RC columns subjected to underwater explosions

Reinforced concrete (RC) columns are widely used as supporting structures for high-piled wharfs. The study of damage model of a RC column due to underwater explosion is a critical issue to assess the wharf’s antiknock security. In this study, the dynamic response and damage model of circular RC columns subjected to underwater explosions were investigated by means of scaled-down experiment models. Experiments were carried out in a 10.0 m diameter tank with the water depth of 2.25 m, under different explosive quantities (0.025 kg–1.6 kg), stand-off distances (0.0 m–7.0 m), and detonation depths (0.25 m–2.0 m). The shock wave load and dynamic response of experiment models were measured by configuring sensors of pressure, acceleration, strain, and displacement. Then, the load distribution characteristics, time history of test data, and damage models related to present conditions were obtained and discussed. Three damage models, including bending failure, bending-shear failure and punching failure, were identified. In addition, the experience model of shock wave loads on the surface of a RC column was proposed for engineering application.