考虑地球非球形引力摄动影响的自由段弹道解析解

针对地球非球形引力摄动影响下的自由段弹道快速计算问题,在非正交坐标系内建立考虑J2项摄动的地球引力作用下的运动微分方程,在轨道坐标系内建立扰动引力作用下的运动微分方程,并计算天向扰动引力加速度对应的质量偏差,进而通过椭圆轨道以修正J2项摄动运动微分方程;在建立上述运动微分方程解析解的基础上,给出了地心坐标系内弹道飞行器位置和绝对速度的表达式,从而提出了J2项摄动引力和扰动引力作用下的自由段弹道解析计算方法。仿真分析表明:该方法具有较高的计算效率,落点位置偏差小于20 m,满足弹道飞行器高精度实时制导、轨迹预测等应用需求。     

战斗部虚拟试验贝叶斯线性校准预测方法

聚能装药战斗部射虚拟试验中,射流穿深对靶板材料模型参数较敏感。为建立较准确实用的射流穿深预测模型,提出一种贝叶斯线性校准方法,建立物理过程真实值、模型预测值和试验测量值间的统计关系,结合有限的试验数据,校准未知模型参数。实例分析表明,该方法可较好地解决包含各种不确定性的大型复杂计算模型的参数校准问题。     

A misclassification cost‐minimizing evolutionary–neural classification approach

Machine learning algorithms that incorporate misclassification costs have recently received considerable attention. In this paper, we use the principles of evolution to develop and test an evolutionary/genetic algorithm (GA)‐based neural approach that incorporates asymmetric Type I and Type II error costs. Using simulated, real‐world medical and financial data sets, we compare the results of the proposed approach with other statistical, mathematical, and machine learning approaches, which include statistical linear discriminant analysis, back‐propagation artificial neural network, integrated cost preference‐based linear mathematical programming‐based minimize squared deviations, linear integrated cost preference‐based GA, decision trees (C 5.0, and CART), and inexpensive classification with expensive tests algorithm. Our results indicate that the proposed approach incorporating asymmetric error costs results in equal or lower holdout sample misclassification cost when compared with the other statistical, mathematical, and machine learning misclassification cost‐minimizing approaches. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2006.     

作战应用软件评测指标及方法研究

作战应用软件装备部队前进行黑盒评测必须以规格需求为基础。根据作战应用软件的功能区分,提出了作战应用软件评测指标确定的原则和依据,建立了评测的指标体系,给出了评测方法。应用层次分析法自底向上对各级指标属性值进行计算,并对计算方法进行了分析。所用的评测指标体系和评测方法适用于各军种兵种作战应用软件评测,具有通用性特点。     

Changing the paradigm: Simulation,now a method of first resort

Decades ago, simulation was famously characterized as a “method of last resort,” to which analysts should turn only “when all else fails.” In those intervening decades, the technologies supporting simulation—computing hardware, simulation‐modeling paradigms, simulation software, design‐and‐analysis methods—have all advanced dramatically. We offer an updated view that simulation is now a very appealing option for modeling and analysis. When applied properly, simulation can provide fully as much insight, with as much precision as desired, as can exact analytical methods that are based on more restrictive assumptions. The fundamental advantage of simulation is that it can tolerate far less restrictive modeling assumptions, leading to an underlying model that is more reflective of reality and thus more valid, leading to better decisions. Published 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 62: 293–303, 2015     

军事情报价值的当量评估法

研究了军事情报价值的综合性和相对性,提出了军事情报价值评估的当量分析法,分别针对确定性标度和模糊标度结合层次分析法给出了评估算法。算例结果表明方法有一定的合理性且评价结论易于理解。     

服役工况下镍基单晶高温合金的损伤机制研究进展

为提高镍基单晶叶片服役寿命、解决发动机和燃气轮机的关键核心技术,近年来国内外持续开展了大量针对镍基单晶高温合金服役情况下损伤与失效机制的研究。从实际服役条件出发,总结了镍基单晶高温合金疲劳、蠕变和热机械疲劳损伤机制等研究成果与进展。此外,针对大量实验造成的时间与成本增加问题,还总结了近年来在镍基单晶高温合金的寿命预测方法方面的研究工作与成果,并提出了目前在镍基单晶高温合金寿命评估与失效分析研究方面所面临的困难和挑战。     

基于灰色神经网络武器装备研制费用预测模型

提出了基于灰色系统理论与神经网络的武器装备研制费用组合预测模型,该模型首先采用灰色GM(0,N)模型对研制费用进行预测,利用LMBP神经网络对预测误差进行了模拟与修正,实例验证该方法具有较高的预测精度.     

考虑目标定位误差的点目标毁伤概率求解

根据射击毁伤理论和概率统计学,在现有点目标毁伤概率求解方法基础之上提出考虑目标定位误差的解析法和仿真法.计算结果表明2种方法均准确可行.通过对比分析得出不同弹药量、不同目标特性条件下,定位误差对毁伤概率的影响程度.运用解析法得出点目标的单发命中概率服从χ2分布,通过大量仿真得出目标定位误差可忽略的条件为WmaxRCEP/ω.     

弯矩作用下热塑性复合材料悬臂梁弹塑性分析

基于Timoshenko梁理论和Tsai-Hill屈服准则,建立了自由端弯曲载荷作用下悬臂梁弹塑性问题分析的数学模型,并得到了梁应力和位移的精确解.通过与相关文献和有限元计算结果进行对比,验证了该方法的正确性,并在此基础上,进一步分析了纤维方向角、弯矩、跨高比以及纤维体积分数对梁弹塑性应力和位移的影响规律.相关成果可为...