Applying Lanchester's linear law to model the Ardennes campaign

In modern warfare, many believe the decisive factor in winning a battle is seizing the right moment to shift from defense to attack, or vice versa. This paper attempts to bring that perspective to Lanchester's differential equations of warfare, and continues the application of Lanchester's linear law to the analysis of the World War II battle of Ardennes, as reported in earlier issues of Naval Research Logistics by Bracken and by Fricker. A new variable, shift time, accounting for the timing of the shift between defense and attack is explicitly included in our version of the model, and it helps obtain improved goodness of fit to historical data. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 48:653–661, 2001     

运用联合作战理论指导公安现役办工作

做好公安现役部队的干部工作,是贯彻落实科学发展观、做到以人为本的具体实践。现役办做干部工作,可运用联合作战理论,在战术上,抓住工作的重点、热点、亮点;在战役上,对上当好参谋、对内建好队伍、对下搞好服务;在战略上,紧抓思想政治建设,健全各种制度。     

北京奥运安保与反恐

从第20届慕尼黑奥运会开始,恐怖袭击事件不断。当前,北京奥运会也面临恐怖袭击现实威胁。为此,举全国公安机关之力,配合中国人民解放军的反恐行动,加强国际合作,北京奥运会完全有能力预防各种形式的恐怖袭击。     

面向对象的战略战役指挥训练模拟系统数据建模

大型的战略战役指挥训练模拟系统需要内容复杂、数量庞大的数据作为支撑,而结构清晰、容易理解的数据模型是系统成功开发和应用的前提。采用面向对象的基本方法,给出了系统数据建模的概念定义并采用UM L表示法进行了建模方法分析,最后讨论了OO数据模型在系统工程化的数据准备以及运行时和事后分析等应用中所具有的特点。     

A best practice for assessment in counterinsurgency

In September 2011, the Commander of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan directed the Afghan Assessment Group to redesign the way in which ISAF was assessing the status of the war, and to be ‘revolutionary’ in so doing. The resulting assessment paradigm was novel, non-doctrinal, and effectively addressed the unique complexities of the counterinsurgency in Afghanistan and the needs of the ISAF Commander. It had a two-tier structure consisting of both strategic and campaign assessments. The former focused on answering a set of strategic questions in narrative, analytic form to address the strategic environment, while the latter used a set of standards and accompanying narrative responses to gauge accomplishment of campaign tasks. Both tiers captured the current state of the war while maintaining an eye on future challenges and opportunities. The two assessments and their associated processes were designed to stimulate discussions leading directly to decisions by senior leaders on actions they could take, direct, or request. While any assessment paradigm will have advantages and disadvantages, an examination of the pros and cons of this assessment paradigm makes clear that it should be considered a ‘best practice’ in the field of counterinsurgency assessment.     

空中突击兵力使用方案的优化方法

空中进攻战役全过程突击兵力使用方案的优化问题 ,是当前国内外亟待研究的重大课题。在提出多时段计划思想的基础上 ,给出了一种较为有效的优化模型 ,并探讨了有关的数据过滤问题     

Challenges of measuring progress in Afghanistan using violence trends: the effects of aggregation,military operations,seasonality, weather,and other causal factors

Measuring nationwide progress of counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan using violence trends is difficult due to several factors: aggregation of data to the national level may obfuscate disparate local trends; the observed seasonality in violence makes comparisons difficult and may obscure progress; and short-term spikes or troughs – attributable to weather, military operations and tempo, or holiday periods – heavily influence simple averaging schemes. Despite these challenges, proper understanding of violence statistics is critical to estimating the effectiveness of military forces added during a surge or redeployed as part of transition. This article explores methods for analyzing observed violence trends to identify causal factors, to provide a comparable baseline, and to inform assessments at appropriate levels of aggregation. One methodology for seasonal adjustment of violence data is discussed and shown to provide a logical baseline for examining trends. An ordinary least squares regression model is developed and implemented using time-series violence data.     

印度处置孟买恐怖袭击事件的教训及启示

2008年11月,发生在印度最大的海港城市孟买的恐怖袭击事件,引起人们普遍关注。从分析印度应对此次袭击事件的行动入手,总结了印度反恐行动失败的教训和暴露出的问题,并着重阐述了印度处置孟买恐怖袭击事件对我国反恐力量建设及做好反恐斗争准备工作的几点启示。     

美国反恐情报工作改革及其启示

“9.11”事件显示出美国情报界存在的严重问题,事后,美国以反恐为中心,出台一系列反恐法律法规,重新架构情报体系,改革情报生产,加强国际反恐情报合作,以应对其认定的当前主要国家安全威胁———恐怖主义。美国当前情报运行机制可为我国边防情报工作提供良好借鉴。     

网络空间联合反恐作战信息共享能力分析与评估?

在网络空间联合反恐作战信息共享能力构成框架的基础上,分析了信息共享能力生成的相关要素及其内部关系,并利用信息熵理论建立了信息共享的时效熵、质量熵、成本熵模型。通过对传统树形链状和新型网状循环两种信息共享模式进行仿真分析,为不断提高信息共享能力进行了有益探索。